IceBreakChron VII: COUNTDOWNS

[JasonPratt]

May 5, 1941: Stalin officially and publicly becomes the head of the Soviet Government.

When the Soviets eventually capture German intelligence documents, they will learn that the German leadership is completely baffled (at first) by this decision, unable to reach a satisfying explanation.

The move concentrates no more power into Stalin hand; he had already long since done that. Once accepting (taking) the post of General Secretary in 1922, Stalin for almost twenty years has avoided all other state and government posts. He has controlled everything, yet was officially responsible for nothing -- even today his apologists point out he never officially ordered this suspicious activity or that atrocity to happen. Stalin the mere party secretary has no official ties to the Great Purge, for example; that was Ezhov, who was the People's Commissar for Interior Affairs, and who shouldered all public responsibility. Thus the Russian nickname for 1937-38, "Ezhovshchina"! This policy will continue in some odd ways throughout the war, as will be seen later; but to give a famous example (otherwise beyond the scope of collating the Icebreaker thesis): when Stalin personally meets in conferences with Churchill and Roosevelt, Stalin will never say no. He will subtly signal Molotov to do that for him -- Molotov will even receive the nickname "Mr. Nyet"! All agreements and concessions will come from Stalin; all demands from Molotov.


But despite his penchant for secret control, which has served him extremely well from the early 20s until now, from now on, Stalin must now take public responsibility for his decisions, including any mistakes.

Did this improve or even just change how he managed the system? Admiral Kuznyetsov, at that time already a Central Committee member and the People's Commissar for the USSR Navy, will later remark (JMH, 1965, Vol 9, p.66), "When Stalin took charge of the chairmanship of the Council of People's Commissars, the management system remained virtually unchanged." In other words, Stalin still ran things like a mafia boss from the shadows.

But now he can take public responsibility for something that he feels super-confident about taking credit for! -- confident enough to step into the light as the man in public control.

[JasonPratt]

May 5, 1941: according to the memoir of Soviet Admiral Kuznyetsov ("On the Eve", p.313), once Zhukov had become Chief of the General Staff (back in February) "a very important directive was prepared, targeting Germany for military district and fleet commanders as the most likely enemy in a future war." Well, duh. That seems like a standard and obvious directive. Would they think Italy to be a more obvious enemy?! They had just run two wargames in the first half of January with Germany as the obvious enemy, defending current Nazi territory from a Soviet invasion!

Nevertheless, this very important directive from February has sat around waiting at General Staff HQ for a few months, until being transmitted for action to military district headquarters all along the border on this day. Suvorov occasionally calls it the M-Day packet (and even named one of his books after it), partly because Soviet generals themselves gave it that nickname. Suvorov never explains where the nickname comes from, but the tacit implication is that it's named after this day, May 5th, when the packets are delivered to Soviet military leaders -- the same day Stalin takes full public command of the Soviet Union.

Suvorov says there are many indications that all District HQs receive (their versions of) the M-Day packet on the same day, one such source being Bagramayan. (In Icebreaker, Suvorov may have a typo about whether this directive is sent May 6th, but he connects it to this day more explicitly; and possibly some leader and HQs may receive their packets a day later.) Suvorov says that current and eventual Soviet Marshals often talk in articles and memoirs about this top-secret directive on what sounds like should be a blatantly obvious topic, but they rarely ever quote from it. At the time of "Icebreaker" (or some later edition), Suvorov had found only one sentence partially quoted, by Anfilov in his "Immortal Feat", p.171: "...be prepared on a signal from General Headquarters to launch lighting strikes to rout the enemy, move military operations to his territory, and seize key objectives."

Note the reference to General Headquarters -- in Soviet doctrine, this only comes into existence once the Soviet Union goes to war. You do not need orders from GHQ to launch a lightning defense against an invasion, however! -- you do not need a Soviet General HQ to exist yet at all! You just need standing orders to defend, with as much defensive preparations as you can get. Soviet doctrine actually protects the rights of any soldier to shoot to kill anyone attempting to reach whatever the soldier is guarding, and severely punishes any soldier who fails to shoot!

In a war of defense, General HQ (activated upon the start of such a war or shortly before when High Command realizes Russia is about to be invaded) expects to receive information about the preliminary defensive action at the start of the invasion, so that it can make reasonable adjustments to standing defense plans as necessary. But these orders, expected from General HQ, whatever they were, instead anticipate all the armies on the western military districts to be leaping into coordinated action upon a command from GHQ that they are to be expecting and waiting for: a coordinated action to rout the enemy and move military operations onto his territory. This command will definitely not be issued on June 22 when the Nazis invade across the border -- local commanders will be paralyzed waiting for orders, or scrambling for ad hoc action in accordance with best guesses as to GHQ expectations, while GHQ will struggle to figure out what to do. (And notice that GHQ will formally exist by then! We'll definitely be getting back to that.)

As Suvorov puts it, a war of defense starts with soldiers, then sergeants, then company commanders, going up the chain of command to the top as battle is joined. A war of offense starts with a command from the Commander-in-Chief, transmitted down the command chain by the Chief of the General Staff, to front commanders, then to fleet and army commanders, then to corps and division and brigade commanders, eventually to sergeants and their troops. Rank-and-file are the first to find out about the start of a war of defense, and they tell everyone up the chain of command. Rank-and-file are the last to find out about the start of a war of aggression. In a war of defense, millions of soldiers each start on their own; in a war of aggression they all enter, as close as possible, as one.

Putting it another way: German commanders on the border have all been instructed to be prepared, on a signal from Nazi General Headquarters, to launch lighting strikes to rout the enemy, move military operations to his territory, and seize key objectives. And that is what they will successfully do. Russian commanders on previous borders had previously all been instructed to be prepared, on a signal from Soviet GHQ (once it has come into existence for this purpose, of course), to launch lightning strikes to route the enemy, move military operations to his territory, and seize key objectives. Which they had always previously done before, invading other nations (not always successfully, or with only partial success, as in Finland.) Russian commanders currently on the border are now all instructed to be prepared, on a signal from Soviet General Headquarters, to launch lightning strikes to route the enemy, move military operations to his territory, and seize key objectives. There will be some sporadic and ultimately failed attempts at this, 48 days from now -- which will fail because the Nazis will have already started invading first.

The GHQ will not pick up their phones, or use any other means (down to the most primitive), to tell their border commanders, "Do your May 5th orders now!" or "Do May 5th order variant number 10!" On June 22, the "very important" May 5th orders about "lightning attacks" moving military operations onto enemy territory, in a directive (according to other indirect references in other memoirs) specifying Germany as the most likely target for military action, will become instantly even-more obsolete as all the Soviet tanks designed to work best on super-highways, even the ones rolling out of the factories near the western border on June 21st.

While we will be getting back to more M-Day discussion later, there won't be much more of it, for the reason already mentioned here: Soviet GHQ will never order anyone to open their packets and follow their instructions.

(I should clarify here that the HQ for the General Staff isn't quite the same thing as GHQ. There's always a General Staff, and they always have a central HQ. General Headquarters is supposed to be distinctly different, as the center for active combat operations.)

[JasonPratt]

May 5, 1941: on the same day that Stalin takes public command of the Soviet Union, and sends the M-Day packets out to military leaders, Stalin also addresses military academy graduates (and professors up to general rank), from sixteen Red Army academies and nine faculties of civilian universities, as well as representatives of the Red Army and the Fleet High Command (including the People's Commissars in both organizations and the Chief of the General Staff), at a Kremlin reception in the convention hall of the Great Kremlyovski Palace, speaking for (by his standards) an unusually long 40 minutes. All full and candidate members of the Politburo arrive with him (except for Krushchev, who is holding a Central Committee plenary meeting in Kiev.)

The last time Stalin had addressed academy graduates was in 1935, shortly before he started the Great Purge. This speech, not being delivered to people he plans to put in prison or in a hole in the ground (or both) within the next two years, is top-secret instead! -- a much darker and more serious deed than the Purge is on the way!

Later some attendees give indications (such as in JMH, 1978, #4, p.85, and the "History of the Second World War", Vol 3, p.439), that Stalin spoke about the German Army being the Soviet Army's most likely adversary. Zhukov in his "Recollections and Reflections" (p.236) reports that in his usual question-and-answer format, Stalin asked three times if the German Army was invincible, and three times answered no. Why did Germany lose World War I? Because they fought on two fronts, of course!

This would seem to be a major propaganda tool, but the speech is not made public; not in May, despite other speeches and articles calling out the crimes of the Nazis, not in June before or after Barbarossa, not in July when Stalin starts publicly rallying the people for defense. (Stalin also reportedly speaks about Germany fighting under the flag of conquering other nations, so under that flag they would not be successful. This might be regarded as some nearsighted irony, considering what Stalin has been preaching along with his crew since 1917!)

Suvorov has in his possession the unpublished memoirs (at least at the time of "Chief Culprit") of eventual Air Force Major-General M.V. Vodopianov, the very first Hero of the Soviet Union. Present at the speech, he says that the listeners correctly understood Stalin to be hinting about attacking Germany, filling the room with applause and cheer.

The General Secretary of the Comintern, the Bulgarian Communist Georgi Dimitrov, will write in his diary that Stalin is in an extremely good mood, and that during the banquet following the speech Stalin twice makes a toast. The first is to the commanders and the professors from the military academies; the second is to the health of artillerymen, tankers, and aviators. (This is printed the next day in Pravda's May 6th, 1941 edition.)

A third toast, focused on by Suvorov for special attention, is given by Lieutenant-General A.K. Sivkov, who toasts Stalin's peaceful foreign policy. But Stalin interrupts -- which Suvorov extensively quotes (from the Russian Center for Storing and Studying Documents of Recent History, Fund 558, Index 1, Document 3808, Sheet 12): "Allow me to make a correction. A peaceful foreign policy secured peace in our country. A peaceful foreign policy is a good thing. For a while, we drew a line of defenses until we re-armed our army [and] supplied it with modern means of combat. Now, when our army has been rebuilt, our technology modernized, strong for combat, now we must shift from defense to offense. In conducting the defense of our country, we are compelled to act in an aggressive manner. From defense we have to shift to a military policy of offense. It is indispensible that we reform our training, our propaganda, our press to a mindset of offense. The Red Army is a modern army, and the modern army is an army of offense!"

One should keep in mind after reading this, what Stalin has been writing, speaking, and authorizing and inspiring, already in propaganda for decades! -- he plans to train and lean even more toward offense now, than he has been doing already!

A few days after the speech and the banquet, by the way, General Sivkov is discharged (per Eduard Muratov's "Six Hours with Stalin at a Reception in the Kremlin", #7 (1993), p.285. This citation looks strange, by the way -- why would there be seven volumes of this?? It looks more like a JMH citation format, and is probably a typo.) The JMH in 1995, #6, p.6, will agree that in essence Stalin is telling his audience to prepare for war and to disregard any official propaganda about peace instead.

The secrecy of this speech is sufficiently peculiar for Suvorov to take note of it, and he infers Stalin had been talking about attacking Germany, thus its secrecy. However, in later editions of "Icebreaker", Suvorov acknowledges that the speech (along with what he calls the secret protocols of the Politburo's calling of Stalin as the public head of state), was eventually published by the Moscow Democracy Fund in 1998, in the anthology "The Year 1941, 2nd Volume".

Suvorov has access to this anthology; he quotes from it not uncommonly. He even knows the pages numbers for the speech, apparently: 158-162. But if Suvorov knows that much, why bother making educated guesses about the content? He quotes extensively whatever he can find from other people about the speech; he quotes Stalin extensively regarding the rebuttal to the peaceful foreign policy toast. Why doesn't Suvorov quote even one direct line from this academy speech?

Whatever its merits may be in how the suggestions of the speech fit into the immediate, local, and extended context, Suvorov's omission of material directly from the speech cannot help but seem conveniently suspicious (at least to me).

[JasonPratt]

May 6, 1941: whatever the content of the secret speech yesterday, Soviet Military Intelligence Colonel Starinov in his memoir (p.186) reports, "In early May 1941, after Stalin had addressed the reception for military academy graduates, all barrier-building and mine-laying was curtailed even more." On the same page, "Engineering command of the Red Army sent a request for 120,000 railroad mines of delayed action. In the event of an invasion, this amount would have sufficed to paralyze the German army's supply routes from the rear, on which it was entirely dependent. But instead of the requested amount, they sent... 120 mines!"

Defensive preparations, already minimized and produced mostly for show at the border where the Nazis can see them (as the Nazis have been doing where the Soviets can see them), reduce even farther. Where do these defensive reductions even-farther-happen? Right on the border, as per captured Nazi intelligence documents who, throughout May and June, report that in fact the Soviets were removing mine fields and other barriers at the border.

The Germans would know, because they have been doing it, too, that the removal of the last minimal border defenses is an indisputable final step in priming to launch an offensive.

[JasonPratt]

May 6, 1941, Pravda editorial (i.e. written by Stalin or inspired by his notes): "Raging just beyond the borders of our Motherland is the conflagration of a Second Imperialist War."

Notice: this is being called by the name of the war predicted by Lenin's Marxism, necessary to break down the property owners so that the final worldwide revolutionary war of the workers can rise up and seize control of all property, materials, and means of production.

"The full weight of its woes is pressing down on the shoulders of the toiling masses. People everywhere want no part of war. Their gaze is fixed on the land of socialism," i.e. the true socialism of the USSR, not Hitler's national socialism, "reaping the fruits of peaceful labor. They rightly see the armed forces of our Motherland -- the Red Army and our Navy -- as the tried and true bulwark for peace... Given the current complex international situation you have to be prepared for all kinds of surprises..." Russians are to regard people around the world as looking toward and hoping for the Soviet Military, to rescue them from the war of woes and provide them peace! -- the peace of becoming one of the Soviet Socialist Republics.

Stalin however, after many years of intensively (even murderously) strong work, is somehow not prepared for one kind of surprise! -- on the way in a little more than a month...

Suvorov in Icebreaker either mixes up his dates, or implies that this was originally printed by Pravda on May 1st, thus reprinted on May 6th. In Chief Culprit he is consistent about May 6th.

[JasonPratt]

Since for whatever reason(s) Suvorov ends up splitting references to the Pravda article between May 1st and May 6th, I'll take a moment to combine them in one entry for convenience.

Whether May 1st and/or (reprinted on?) May 6th: "Raging just beyond the borders of our Motherland is the conflagration of a Second Imperialist War. [...] The full weight of its woes is pressing down on the shoulders of the toiling masses. People everywhere want no part of war. Their gaze is fixed on the land of socialism reaping the fruits of peaceful labor. They rightly see the armed forces of our Motherland -- the Red Army and our Navy -- as the tried and true bulwark for peace..." Quoting Stalin, "What has been achieved in the USSR can be achieved in other countries as well."

Timoshenko passes along (via the People's Commissar for Defense Order #191) to "every company, Army, Air Force, and Navy squadron, as well as aboard all ships" this warning from Stalin, "Given the current complex international situation you have to be prepared for all kinds of surprises..." and for "tricks" of foreign enemies. Suvorov goes on to apparently paraphrase: The enemy is shrewd and underhanded, says Pravda, but patriotic Soviets will foil his schemes by liberating people across Europe from the scourges of war and massive bloodshed.

[JasonPratt]

May 8, 1941, the Soviet radio agency TASS broadcasts a Refutation: "Japanese newspapers are publishing a Domei Tsushin news agency dispatch saying... the Soviet Union is massing military forces on its western borders... a concentration of immense proportions." This is of course entirely true, but Japan doesn't mean the First Strategic Echelon. Japan is talking about the gigantic logistic transfer of armies from the Far East, which started and has been increasing since late autumn 1940.

"Passenger traffic has accordingly been halted along the Siberian railway, to allow for redeployment of troops from the Far East to the western frontier. Large-scale force redeployment to the same area is underway also from Central-Asia... A military mission headed by Kusnetsov has left Moscow for Teheran. Its aim, the Agency notes, is to have air bases granted to the Soviet Union in central and western parts of Iran. TASS is authorized to state that this suspiciously sensationalist Domei Tshushin report, lifted from an unnamed United Press correspondent, is a product of the delusions of its author... as no 'large-scale concentration of military forces' exists and none is being envisaged. The grain of truth the Domei Tsushin report does embody -- and crudely distorts -- is that availability of better quarters in Novosibirsk has indeed prompted redeployment from around Irkutsk of a single rifle division. Everything else in the Domei Tsushin dispatch is pure fantasy."

In August, while the teeth of Barbarossa are biting down hard and deep, Soviet troops will invade Iran and build air bases for themselves (and a whole lot else), but that is somewhat beside the point. In all of Suvorov's research for Far East bases during this period, he found no evidence of any division unloading at Irkutsk or any other such base. Whether Irkutsk, Novosibirsk, Chita, Ulan-Ude, Blagoveshhensk, Spassk, Iman, Barabash, Khabarovsk, or Voroshilov, divisions only loaded. They only un-loaded on the western frontier. He even found a book published in the Trans-Baikal Military District (in other words Irkutsk) talking about the peculiar boom in divisions being shipped out, every last one bound for the western border. This hadn't started on May 8th, of course; it had started long before.

[JasonPratt]

May 12, 1941: Graf von Schulenburg, German's Moscow ambassador at this time, in a secret report to Nazi high command, declares, "I do not know of any Soviet domestic issue serious enough to prompt Stalin to take such a step." He's talking about Stalin arranging to be the public instead of secret commander of all authority in the Soviet Union, back on May 4th and 5th.

"I could claim greater assurance in saying you have to look to foreign policy to explain why Stalin chose to take the highest post in government. [...] Stalin has set himself a foreign policy goal of enormous importance, one he hopes to reach on his own." The ambassador means that the only explanation which might make sense, is that Stalin hopes to take personal and public credit for reaching this enormous foreign policy goal. He has become so incredibly assured of reaching this enormous goal, whatever it is, that he has come out of the shadows of his government to assume highest responsibility, and highest credit, for the success. But what could this foreign policy triumph be?

Eventual Marshal of the Soviet Union Ivan Bagramayan will later in his memoir ("This is How the War Began", 1971, p.62), offer an explanation matching Schulenburg's in essence but with a little more detail: "In May the international situation remained tense. The Soviet Union was preparing to rebut. This is exactly how we in the military district HQ had interpreted Stalin's appointment [of himself!] as the Chairman of the People's Commissars Council."

So this foreign policy goal will be a rebuttal of the tense situation, a rebuttal so important that Stalin wants public and formal credit for leading it. Okay, but what is this 'rebuttal' supposed to be? What foreign policy problems would Stalin be so eager, and so confident of success, to publicly take leadership to rebut?

By May 1941, the Nazis have crushed many nations, so there could be no problems with the governments of those nations. Stalin has successfully arranged a truce with Japan, and has washed his hands of their involvement in China and the Greater Co-Prosperity Sphere generally. Stalin might have problems with Vichy France, but he was on good terms with the Republic and remains so with its exiled leaders. Britain remains friendly to Stalin and keeps offering outstretched hands of teamwork (and also invitations and suggestions for Stalin to hit Hitler in the back while the hitting is good, and stop World War II already!) Roosevelt is warning him of dangers and allowing American technology to flow freely into the USSR for Stalin to use as he sees fit.

Who else remains? Is Stalin coming out into the open to deal with a foreign policy problem concerning icepicks in Mexico? Will he be settling down fellow militant socialist Mussolini somehow?! What other pressing foreign policy problem remains for Stalin to personally resolve? There's a Chinese civil war going on, and Stalin is supporting the Chinese communists of course, but does anything show that he is preparing a foreign policy achievement so grand and historical in importance that he finally wants to take public and official credit for it by doing something, anything, in China at this time? Heck, he's stripping his Far East military districts of their armed forces and commanders and sending them westward to face... hm, who's over there...

Oh, right, Nazi Germany is gathering on his borders!  ::)

Okay, let's see, resolve that greatest of tense foreign policy issues, how: establish an unshakable peace with the Nazis? But Molotov already did that and then Stalin broke it in Romania. Stalin's offers of an alliance with the Axis powers afterward were insultingly unrealistic in the concessions he demanded for doing so. Stalin may have professed friendship forever with the Nazis a little while back when Japan signed a friendship agreement with the Soviet Union, but Stalin will continue to send Molotov to meet with Nazi leaders (or try to) until June 21st -- he won't try to do that himself.

Resolve that greatest of tense current foreign policy issues by leading an armed struggle against Nazi aggression? Maybe -- Stalin learned to expect Hitler to attack sometime in mid-July, thanks to the intelligence he received 11 days after Hitler finally signed off on Barbarossa. But Stalin hasn't been preparing to defend against that coming attack, and won't start preparing now. Also, he'll be so mortified to be caught off-balance by the Nazi blitz, that he'll try to vanish back into the shadows again and let someone else deal publicly with the bad news! (At least at first.)

Resolve that greatest of tense current foreign policy issues by invading Nazi territory? Hm...

Almost a year earlier, on August 18, 1940, Pravda had promised the Soviet people in a typical propaganda: "Then, when Marshal of the Revolution [not an official title or post] Comrade Stalin so signals, hundreds of thousands of pilots, navigators, and paratroopers, will swoop down on the enemy, crushing his head with full might of arms, the arms of socialist justice. Soviet air legions will bring happiness to humankind!" Pravda (i.e. Stalin through Pravda) was not talking about crushing an enemy's head in a defensive war, but about starting the final revolutionary world war on Stalin's order; and a little more than a month from now, Stalin will go to far lengths to avoid giving the official order to smash the invading Nazis!

As General Secretary and shadow dictator, Stalin could give whatever order he wants, and it will be obeyed -- but he couldn't take the full and public credit for it. For the first time in 19 years, Stalin can now take full and public credit for any successful order he gives.

Remember, back on May 5th (and 6th perhaps in some cases) -- the same day Stalin publicly took over formal leadership of the Soviet Union -- every Soviet Commander (per Rokossovsky's memoir, "A Soldier's Duty", p.11, for example), was given for his safe a "special secret operational packet": "Red Packet Letter M", nicknamed among those who receive it as the "M-Day Packet". What is in this packet? Generals are forbidden to open it. Opening the Red Packet was permissible only on the directly transmitted order of the People's Commissar of Defense of the USSR (currently Timoshenko, who gets his orders privately from Stalin), or from Chairman of the Council of People's Commissars. Up until May 5th, that had been Molotov, who got his orders privately from Stalin; and up until May 5th, the drafted orders of the M-Day Packets had been sitting around since late February doing nothing!

Now Comrade Stalin has taken Molotov's public office; and now, on his orders, the M-Day packets have been distributed.

If Stalin gives the order to open those packets, he himself will be the one who goes down in history for giving that order, not Molotov.

And yet, when the Nazis invade 40 days from now, Stalin (nor Timoshenko who will still be the Defense Commissar) won't give any order to open those packets of super-special-secret military orders.

[JasonPratt]

The Walking Dead
--------------------

May 13, 1941: Soviet General Headquarters sends orders to prepare to redeploy the Second Strategic Echelon from eastern areas to the western front.

This is interesting for several reasons, including because General HQ shouldn't exist yet! -- the Soviet Union isn't supposed to be at war, and in Soviet doctrine General HQ doesn't exist until then.

Of course, even in Soviet Russia a General HQ doesn't pop into existence at once upon the sheer decree of the Politburo; it is set up beforehand. Specifically, the General HQ won't formally come into formal existence until a Politburo decree of June 21st, whereupon its direct Force Command shall be, ta-daaa! -- the armies of the Second Strategic Echelon: the ones now being ordered to move across most of all of Russia.

The leaders of the Soviet GHQ are already secretly directing the commanders of seven of the interior Military Districts (aside from Moscow), to deploy one new army in each of the seven MDs; engage all district HQ staff and troops in the formation of these armies; and personally take command of the new armies.

Their numbers are so vast, and the rail network is already so overloaded with a logistic transfer that started late last year and slowly began accelerating in February 1941, that the armies already formed and now ordered to prepare to move will not be able to even start moving for a month. But the new interior MD Armies will also need a month to form up and be ready to move. Their target date for readiness: June 13th.

This morphing of MD officers and troops into Army officers and troops, and their deployment, will leave each MD commanded by high-ranking but less talented generals who will be crucially short of remaining staff, and who have never commanded an army or MD before -- nor will again. Some MDs will need a few months before a new general arrives to command them. The Siberian MD (per the Soviet Military Encyclopedia, Vol.7, p.33) won't get a new commander until 1942! (But it doesn't much matter: all the Siberian Gulags will pack up and move west, too.) As long as Russia isn't invaded, however, the new eastern MD commanders will not need to do more than keep up with a previously standardized production schedule. If this grouping of Soviet armies is planning to invade somewhere, they could even reduce their home MD workloads by capturing supplies and material!

Everything will hum along fine with much less oversight -- unless the Soviet Armies are caught out of position and disastrously overrun by a surprise invasion, in which case the interior MDs not only risk being also overrun on defense (and their own materials captured by the invaders), but must also deal with emergency relocation and production simultaneously, with crucially short staffs.

Any defensive war might be fatally lost by this move, unless the armies at the border are producing epic defensive barriers.

(The armies at the border are not producing epic defensive barriers, and will be caught out of defensive position in a disastrous surprise invasion a little more than one month from now.)


Trans-baikal (with Urals MD Deputy District Commander Lukin, a gulag veteran) becomes 16th Army (composed largely of gulag veterans); this starts out as 32nd Rifle Corps, 5th Mechanized Corps, and the 57th Tank Division. That's a super-army already, but it will be bulked up later! -- we'll be tracking it as we go.

The Urals MD, which Lukin helped command, becomes 22nd Army; comprised of the 51st and 62nd Rifle Corps. A high ranking functionary arrives to take over once they depart.

North Caucasus MD becomes 19th Army, heading for the Cherkassy Fortified Sector at the border, complete with a German Communist deputy commander, General Max Reiter -- who is already at the FS making secret preparations. The 19th will be beefed up, but starts with 25th and 34th Rifle Corps (the latter with five divisions), 26th Mechanized Corps, and the 38th Rifle Division.

Orlov MD? That's 20th Army, under Lieutenant-General Remezov; consisting of 61st and 69th Rifle Corps, 7th Mechanized Corps, and 18th Rifle Division.

Volga MD? Hundreds of officers from District Commander Lieutenant-General Gerasimyenko and District Chief of Staff General Gordov, on down, simply switch out "Volga MD" with "21st Army", and keep their ranks and duties -- just not in Volga MD itself anymore. This has the 63rd and 66th Rifle Corps, and the 25th Mechanized Corps. They go camp in someone else's Military District! -- as secretly as possible, with even the host MD Commander knowing as little as possible about their arrival and deployment and plans!

Siberian MD? That's 24th Army, consisting of the 52nd and 53rd Rifle Corps, plus the 23rd Mechanized Corps.

Last but not quite least, Kharkov MD becomes 28th Army, with the 30th and 33rd Rifle Corps and the 69th Mechanized Corps.

Besides these, several independent corps receive orders to prepare for deployment westward, including the 31st Rifle Corps, the 27th Mechanized Corps, and perhaps most specially the 9th Special Rifle Corps. (We'll be keeping track of its specialty. ;) )

Final total, seventy-seven divisions, not counting a huge swarm of currently unattached sub-divisional combat and auxiliary formations (regiments, battalions, brigades, etc.)


In one single day a month from now, on June 13th, from Archangelsk in the north to Kuban in the south, and from Oryol in the west to Chita in the east, the old military-territorial order will vanish -- packing up, or standing on alert ready to load up, as mobile Armies. ALL divisions of ALL interior Military Districts will leave for the western frontier, to camp as official Armies in someone else's Military District -- and not under the command or oversight of those western MD leaders.


Several of these new Military District armies feature commanders who are formally "Commanders": remember, these are political prisoners released but not yet shifted to the new "General" ranks Stalin installed earlier.

CorCom Petrovsky, for example, released in November 1940 and ordered to put together the 63rd Rifle Corps, activates as part of the new 21st Army from the Volga MD today. All three of his divisional commanders are former prisoners: two BrigComs and a colonel (not counting any number of majors, captains, and lieutenants filling out Second Echelon ranks). The 67th Corps, also in the 21st Army, teems with BrigComs; one even leads the Corps, future Colonel-General Zhmachenko.

Both corps of the Urals MD 22nd Army are lead by BrigComs: Povyetkin for 51st Corps, Karmanov for 62nd. Two of the divisions are filled with 'lumberjacks', super-black right to the top: BrigCom Adamson's 112th Rifle (a curiously English name), and BrigCom Zygin's 174th.

"Glance at chiefs of staff, chiefs of artillery, combat engineers, logistics, and any other service branch or combat arm: all are fresh out of jail," Suvorov avers; dozens more division and corps names and "Com" ranks could be provided, not even counting the brigades, regiments, and battalions. Each remains a dead man walking until given a modern Soviet rank after proving their devotion in battle (and even that is no guarantee). Stalin arms the dead men with weapons and power, and sends them to the western border.


What about Moscow Military District? Its high-grade troops are not directed today to start morphing into an army and preparing to roll out in a month. Its high-grade troops are directed instead to go join First Echelon armies, or to join Second Strategic Echelon 20th Army. Moscow MD's commander Tulenyev remains behind with his HQ staff -- for now.  ^-^


If insurrection breaks out in the Soviet interior, even in Moscow's area, no one will remain to even decide to suppress it: a job for NKVD troops, but their divisions have already moved west some time ago. Fortunately for Stalin, insurrection won't break out; but he clearly needs these armies to be ready in the west for something more important than securing his tyranny over the Soviet heartland after decades of The Great Terror.

[JasonPratt]

May 13, 1941: Soviet high command decides that, on top of activating all remaining Second Strategic Echelon forces who haven't already started heading west, they should also edge the First Strategic Echelon even closer to the border with Nazi territories.

Cramming sixteen armies (in eight Military Districts) closer to the border is not an easy logistic maneuver despite the relatively short distances; it will take exactly one month for them to start moving -- in synch with the start of departure for the main bulk of the Second Strategic Echelon for the west. Keep in mind, the logistic network is already crammed with troops moving westward right now!

One month from now, practically every Soviet military force in all of Russia will either be moving west, or starting to move west, by long or short distances, or partway there already.

Altogether, this will be the greatest logistic operation in all of human history, down to the present day of May 13th, 2020.

We will definitely be getting back to this later. 


May 14, 1941: wait, are there still civilians between the First Echelon and the border??

Ack! Soviet high command issues orders them to be forcibly deported by NKVD troops.

This will start exactly one month later.

[JasonPratt]

Entries are about to start stacking up, as you might expect, in the approach to June 13th (for reasons most people won't know about even grogs ;) ), and then from June 13th to June 22nd (for an ultimate reason most people know about especially grogs  ).

Thus until Barbarossa kicks off I'll be aiming to spread the material out for an entry every (current) day, rather than posting what happened on May 24th on May 24th for example. Some entries will still be longer than others, but this way I won't have to drop half of a whole thread, and all of a whole other thread, about two historical days (13th and 21st of June, 1941), all at once!

So for today's entries:


May 20, 1941, the Nazis start the largest airborne operation in Germany's history, to capture Crete. Defenders are 14,000 Greek troops, and 32,000 British.

Several days later, without having superiority in numbers, German paratroops and the followup airmobile main assault forces, will take control of the island and annihilate the more numerous British and Greek forces.

Military experts at the time unaminously conclude that this is an ingenious rehearsal by Hitler for invading the British Isles.

Aside from Stalin having set up, having unleashed, and having significantly supplied Hitler's ability to do this sort of thing, this operation also illustrates how devastating an air-mobile assault army can be, even going up against superior force numbers.

Now imagine that Hitler had two million such air-mobile troops, with hundreds of thousands of close support strike craft, several thousand tanks capable of swimming across large bodies of water (even crappy tanks) -- and then following up with several times as many more troops spearheaded by many thousands of speedy tanks better than what Hitler actually has, and many hundreds of heavy tanks unlike anything Hitler or anyone else in the world can field! (...almost anyone else in the world.  ^-^ )


May 24, 1941, Britain's largest military ship in the Atlantic, the battlecruiser Hood, fights the Nazis' largest battleship Bismarck. One direct hit to the Hood causes it to explode and sink in a matter of minutes; only three crewmen survive out of 1,421. The Bismarck of course was built using significant amounts of raw materials provided by Stalin's trade agreements with Nazi Germany; and a significant proportion of its fuel is Soviet oil.

[JasonPratt]

May 25, 1941: Zhukov and Bagramayan each separately later (in their memoirs) confirm the arrival of 31st Rifle Corps in the Kiev Special Military District, Zhitomir sector.

The 31st Rifle Corps was formerly stationed in the Far East; which necessarily means this Corps had to be somewhere on the Trans-Siberian rail line when TASS radio issued its May 8th refutation of massive logistic transfers out of the Far East being only fanciful delusions!

In his own memoirs, eventual Colonel-General Lyudnikov (today currently only a Colonel but in charge of his division) says that once his 200th Rifle Division had deployed, fully mobilized, and integrated with 31st Rifle Corps, they headed straight for the German frontier. We'll be getting to that a little later. Thanks to Barbarossa (and a bunch of other logistic troop movements in the way, some of which haven't even started yet) they won't finish their trip.

By the way, yes, you read that correctly. It wasn't a typo (or anyway that's how it is printed in "Chief Culprit"). Lyudnikov is with the 200th Rifle Division. Unless that's a typo by Suvorov's English translator (or in his notes), this necessarily implies either that at least TWO HUNDRED rifle divisions exist, or plans exist to bring them into existence soon.

That's merely rifle divisions: not motorized rifle divisions; not mechanized; not armor; not airborne; not special; just plain old bog-standard Soviet rifle divisions. Sometimes those get shifted with upgrades into being motorized or mechanized, keeping their prior division number, but the point is that two hundred rifle divisions do not count many more OTHER upgraded types of divisions.

Now of course, some of those rifle divisions may only be container units at the moment, for filling out and topping up with reservists later. On the other hand, the reserves are being called up, as noted in previous entries: the 200th Rifle Division for example is fully mobilized by the time it integrates with the 31st Rifle Corps at Zhitomer, and will be marching toward the frontier with a full roster.

[JasonPratt]

May 26, 1941: up until today only one nation in the world had succeeded in doing anything practical about the need for heavy tanks: the Soviet Union.

Today, Nazi Germany signs off on the start of project development for the Mk4501 (Mark 45 ton model 01), which will eventually become the Panzer VI "Tiger".

It will eventually go into service early in 1943, by which time the weight will have inflated to 57 tons. The Soviets have had heavy tanks in production since 1933.

The Nazis are starting sketches today; the Soviet Union actually has heavy tanks in service, in production, in experimental trials, and in further design.

Nazi Germany and the USSR share the first two places in heavy tank production -- sort of (because the Nazis aren't in production yet). There is nobody in third place. According to Suvorov, generals and designers in other nations did not even think of drafting a heavy tank on paper! (I have to regard this as doubtful, btw.)

[JasonPratt]

May 26, 1941: the Urals Military District commander is ordered to redeploy two rifle divisions to the Baltics (per Professor Kvostov's and Major-General Grylev's article in "Communist", 1968, #12, p.67.) But this is just the tip of the logistic iceberg of things happening today (including as reported in the same article.)

Trans-Baikal Military District and Far Eastern Front are told (per Kvostov's article) to get ready to dispatch another nine divisions westward, including three tank divisions.

The 16th Army is already loading onto the Trans-Siberian railway, with 22nd and 24th Armies preparing to follow. Eventual Major-General Lobachov (also spelled Lobachev) was at that time a member of 16th Army's combat operations council. In his memoir "Tough Row to Hoe" (aka "Arduous Roads"), 1960, p.123, he talks about how the Chief of Staff receives an important encoded message from Moscow on this day (May 26th), commanding an immediate loading and departure -- which, of course, means they had to have received orders to prepare for departure already some time ago, or it would have been impossible to start loading and departing that very day. Destination? "Westbound". The tanks could get loaded more quickly (highly unlikely), or were already loaded onto rail wagons (more likely), or were perhaps needed at the destination first, so Lobachov sends them onward, to be followed next by 152nd Division. In this case Army HQ and attached units would bring up the rear, rather than going ahead first to make preparations for arrival. This was typical of a combat action deployment, or at least a simulation of combat action deployment: you don't roll the HQ staff off the trains into enemy fire! But after a fond and hearty send-off by 5th Corps commanders, "everybody thought it sure sounded as though we soon would be talking not about gearing up for combat, but about real action." In other words, not a drill, and they would be unloading already geared up to fight upon deployment!

Lobachov, Chief of Staff Colonel Shalin (a future chief of the GRU), and Army Commander General Lukin (gulag veteran in charge of this predominantly gulag army), are the only three who know the Army is bound westward; every other general is just-as-secretly told they're bound for the Iranian border -- a totally ludicrous misdirection for an expected defensive combat deployment. Lower ranking commanders are told these are practice maneuvers; wives are told the Army is headed for a new camp. (But Lovachov recalls that his wife knows he is going to war; because she reads the Soviet newspapers! Suvorov says he has interviewed hundreds of people from that time who were all sure war was about to start. How did they know? Unanimously: Soviet newspapers.) The Nazis have been meanwhile telling their own generals, beneath the highest front line commanders, that Sea Lion, the invasion of Britain, will finally kick off, and that they will be unloading on the north European coastline for embarkation -- not on the Russian border.

In any case, Lukin warns that the trains must go out tonight, and on following nights -- specifically at night, so that there will be as much delay as possible in people knowing the 16th Army is leaving at all. Also, there will be no stops at major or even mid-sized stations, for operational security; and no one is allowed off when stopping at minor stations. The entire Army, including its top headquarters, is transferred in freight cars with doors and windows sealed.

Later in 1945, with Soviet invasion forces headed to Manchuria, there will be some secrecy involved but not to this extent: generals will be wearing normal officer uniforms riding normal passenger trains, but they will not be bundled off in freight cars and forbidden to exit for eleven days! (Or rather for more than 11 days: at this time, a passenger train would take a minimum of 11 days to cover the Trans-Siberian route, but cargo trains such as what's moving the 16th Army go slower!)

Some of this security could be explained by the origin of the 16th Army (composed from gulag veterans), but all the incoming armies are treated much the same way. Then again, all Second Echelon Armies have a significant proportion of 'black' units.

Does Lukin expect the 16th Army to be on the way to defend against a Nazi invasion? No, he has been outfitting it as strike army, in effect as a second-wave covering army (to cover for armies arriving on the enemy's territory after he does). He later explains why his Army will be caught unprepared to even start setting up defenses: "We were preparing to fight on the enemy's home ground." (JMH, 1979, #7, p.43)

In the same article, by the way, eventual Marshal of the Soviet Union Vasilyevsky, who will launch the surprise attack into Manchuria in 1945, tells the readers that Lukin should be believed about his army's purpose: "There is much unvarnished truth in what he says."

[JasonPratt]

May 29, 1941: a "Russian-German Phrase Book" is published in Moscow; by June 5th or 6th, identical phrase books start rolling off the presses in Minsk, Kiev, Riga, and other cities. Altogether, 6 million are printed (per Suvorov in Icebreaker, but apparently corrected to 5 million later in Chief Culprit). In all Soviet books, including military textbooks, the price is on the last page, except for those books and instructions related to the conduct of battle. The copy Suvorov will stumble upon in the Military-Diplomatic Academy of the Soviet Army, has no price: the books are treated like ammunition, handed out to troops during training exercises, and before or during battle. (Suvorov provides photos of the cover and some sample pages in Chief Culprit.) Who by? The People's Commissariat for Defense, Military Publishing Division. Who for? "Combat soldiers and officers." "This phrase book," it states, "is designed to assist Red Army combat soldiers and junior commanders in gaining proficiency in German words and expressions." Notice that senior commanders are presumed to have such knowledge already; which makes sense, seeing as how many of them have been assigned loyal Soviet German officers as aides over the past few years!

But for all the lesser ranks, such a book might be handy if the Nazis invade, perhaps. Typical phrases are translated from Russian to German first in Cyrillic (phonetically to help Russians speak the words), then in Latin letters -- apparently so that Russians can point to the questions for Germans to read in their own language. Sample answers are also printed the same way.

Let's see, what are some of the questions? "Where have SS soldiers hidden?" Not sure why SS soldiers might be hiding while invading the Soviet Union, but that sounds optimistic at least! "Where else have paratroopers landed?" Certainly something you'd want to know if capturing Nazi paratroops in your backfield. "Take me to them!" Always handy, including for the prior examples.

"What is the name of this station?" The Russians might not know that I suppose. Russia is a very big place. Presumably the Nazi invaders would know where they are trying to go... "Bring the conductor! Where is the fuel? Where is the garage? Gather and bring here [x number] horses [and other sample farm animals], we will pay!" Wow, how generous to pay the Nazi invaders for bringing captured food animals to the Soviet defenders! Truly, is this not the triumph of communism?!

"Stop the broadcast, or I will shoot you!" For stumbling upon an invading communications post no doubt.

"Where does this road lead?" Useful -- but why not ask a Russian local about this? Or an officer with a map? Or sergeant? "Where is the river?" "Where is the bridge?" "What is this river called?" ...I feel like these are questions a Soviet soldier or junior officer would be rather desperate to ask a Nazi invader...

"Where is the Bürgermeister?" ...what?! Well, maybe the Nazi invaders have captured a Russian village, and have already transferred their government over it, and the soldiers are liberating it. "Where are the German soldiers hiding?" Eh, reasonable, get them to rat on their fellow invaders. "Is there an observation point on the steeple?" ...what? What is a steeple?! Have the Nazis (of all people) started building western churches in captured Soviet towns already!? Their architectural hegemony is clearly intense!

"Where is the water? Is it drinkable? Drink it first yourself." Imagine Soviet soldiers defending their Motherland, entering a Russian village, taking out their phrasebook to speak to defeated Nazi invaders, and reading syllable by syllable, "Trink-en See zu-erst man selbst!"

"No need for you to be afraid! The Red army will be here shortly!" The Nazi invaders might be dubious about this statement, to say the least. Meanwhile, until the Red Army gets here: "Where are the markets?"

::) ^-^

A former Soviet diplomat, Nikolai Berezhkov, will write in his memoirs later, "With a Diplomatic Mission in Berlin", how when accompanying Molotov to Berlin in 1940, a German printing press worker once brought to the Soviet embassy a German-Russian phrase book of the same kind. For the Soviet embassy, the book was solid proof that the German army was preparing to invade the USSR; and indeed those preparations were starting after the summer of 1940. But don't worry! -- these little Soviet books will come in handy, too! Just not for several more years: until the Soviets are finally invading Germany.