Middle Provincial Era GROGPUBLIC game thread

Started by JasonPratt, September 17, 2018, 05:04:17 PM

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JasonPratt

#120
Let me provide a clearer look at the combat results table:



(There's a misprint inherent to the board there: the roll is 3d6, not 2d6.)

The options being currently considered amount to this -- do you go to war with 2 Legions, 4 Legions, or 5 Legions? And I think the main discussion is whether you go with 4 or 5 (not merely with the starting 2.)

In a 3d6 roll, the probabilities of which I haven't totally plotted by the way (someone may wish to do some research), the results are a bell curve of probability. On this chart there are 5 Defeat results and 5 Victory results, of equal probability spread on either side of the curve. In the middle are 6 Stalemate results, which also hold the most probable results of a 3d6 total. One point to note is that the results for Stalemates are skewed a little in favor of Rome, in that it is equally probable (before modifiers) that you will lose no units as you will lose 5 units. Whereas the spread of unit loss probabilities for Victory or Defeat results are more equal. On the other hand, overall even the Stalemate results are skewed heavily against Rome, simply because only Rome takes losses! The next time you fight against this War, it will have the same inherent strength, regardless of your result! (Unless you randomly kill Tarqy.)

Assuming you send your most competent Consul, Cincinnatus, who is capable of doubling the power of 5 Legions, you may consider the following cost-benefit analysis.

2 Legion army: costs you nothing extra. Results in (2x2=)4-3=+1 bonus. Minimum result now becomes 3+1=4. You will eliminate the chance of a defeat that wipes all your Legions out, but that result is stupidly rare (1 chance in 216). You will also somewhat increase your chance of Victory instead of Stalemate, and equally increase your chance of Stalemate instead of Defeat. Put a little simply, you'll now have 4 Defeat results, and 6 Victory Results, with 6 Stalemate results remaining at about the same probability as before. On the other hand, most unit-loss results, whether Defeat, Stalemate, or Victory, will still wipe out all your army just as effectively as a total Defeat!

4 Legion army: costs you 20 Talents (plus ongoing upkeep). Results in (2x4=)8-3= +5 bonus. Minimum result now becomes 3+5=8. You will totally eliminate the chance of a defeat. I don't think you can actually eliminate Tarqy's chances of a Disaster, rolling a total of 7: D/S results are checked before adding your Die Roll Modifiers. Your chances for Stalemate are effectively shifted down out of the highest part of the bell curve, and your chances for Victory effectively take over most of the highest part of the bell curve as well as retaining the 'right side' of the curve. Your possibilities of losing up to 5 or 4 units remain (wiping your whole army), but are rendered rather low -- and odds improve drastically that even if you lose your whole army you'll still be Victorious.

5 Legion army: costs you 30 Talents (plus ongoing upkeep). Results in (2x5=)10-3 = +7 bonus. Minimum result now becomes 3+7=10. You still cannot outright lose, and you've now eliminated three Stalemate results, too, including making it impossible to lose 5 units. It's still possible to lose 4 units, but not without gaining Victory. The chances of losing 3 or even 2 units in a Stalemate are crazy low, although your chances of losing them in a Victory are still pretty good. The chances of losing no units at all are very substantial, at least 50% or even little better! (No-loss victory now occupies at least half the bell curve; and also the no-loss Stalemate remains possible, and more likely than any losses with Stalemate.)

Keep in mind that reducing or eliminating the loss of any units also reduces or eliminates upcoming opportunity costs for having to replace those units at 10 more Talents each.


Edited to add: Yang Wen-Li would say (for any fans of The Legend of the Galactic Heroes), that the 5 Legion army fulfills the ideal minimum criteria of 6 to 1 odds against your enemy.  :coolsmiley:
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IncompetentIdiot

Quote from: JasonPratt on October 01, 2018, 09:48:41 PMIn a 3d6 roll, the probabilities of which I haven't totally plotted by the way (someone may wish to do some research), the results are a bell curve of probability. On this chart there are 5 Defeat results and 5 Victory results, of equal probability spread on either side of the curve. In the middle are 6 Stalemate results, which also hold the most probable results of a 3d6 total. One point to note is that the results for Stalemates are skewed a little in favor of Rome, in that it is equally probable (before modifiers) that you will lose no units as you will lose 5 units. Whereas the spread of unit loss probabilities for Victory or Defeat results are more equal. On the other hand, overall even the Stalemate results are skewed heavily against Rome, simply because only Rome takes losses! The next time you fight against this War, it will have the same inherent strength, regardless of your result! (Unless you randomly kill Tarqy.)
Anydice is nice for visualizing probabilities. 4 legions and 5 legions. It's interesting to note the tradeoff between the cost of recruiting an extra legion and the cost of rerecruiting any legions lost.

JasonPratt

ICEBREAKER THESIS CHRONOLOGY! -- Victor Suvorov's Stalin Grand Strategy theory, in lots and lots of chronological order...
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Ethel the Frog

Ok. I  propose a 4 legion army for the vote.  The cost will be 20 talents.

OUr legislative analyst says this "4 Legion army: costs you 20 Talents (plus ongoing upkeep). Results in (2x4=)8-3= +5 bonus. Minimum result now becomes 3+5=8. You will totally eliminate the chance of a defeat. I don't think you can actually eliminate Tarqy's chances of a Disaster, rolling a total of 7: D/S results are checked before adding your Die Roll Modifiers. Your chances for Stalemate are effectively shifted down out of the highest part of the bell curve, and your chances for Victory effectively take over most of the highest part of the bell curve as well as retaining the 'right side' of the curve. Your possibilities of losing up to 5 or 4 units remain (wiping your whole army), but are rendered rather low -- and odds improve drastically that even if you lose your whole army you'll still be Victorious."

I vote for.

Next the plutocrats.
Then militarists
then aristocrats then
the conservatives
then our newest member, the populists.


Tripoli

Quote from: IncompetentIdiot on October 01, 2018, 10:34:03 PM
Quote from: JasonPratt on October 01, 2018, 09:48:41 PMIn a 3d6 roll, the probabilities of which I haven't totally plotted by the way (someone may wish to do some research), the results are a bell curve of probability. On this chart there are 5 Defeat results and 5 Victory results, of equal probability spread on either side of the curve. In the middle are 6 Stalemate results, which also hold the most probable results of a 3d6 total. One point to note is that the results for Stalemates are skewed a little in favor of Rome, in that it is equally probable (before modifiers) that you will lose no units as you will lose 5 units. Whereas the spread of unit loss probabilities for Victory or Defeat results are more equal. On the other hand, overall even the Stalemate results are skewed heavily against Rome, simply because only Rome takes losses! The next time you fight against this War, it will have the same inherent strength, regardless of your result! (Unless you randomly kill Tarqy.)
Anydice is nice for visualizing probabilities. 4 legions and 5 legions. It's interesting to note the tradeoff between the cost of recruiting an extra legion and the cost of rerecruiting any legions lost.

Very nice.  It looks like an approximately 75% chance of an outright victory based on 4 legions, and a 90% chance with 5.  Based on this, and the state of Roman finances, I recommend going with 4 legions (ie, raising 2).
"Do I not destroy my enemies when I make them my friends?" -Abraham Lincoln

JasonPratt

(...um, you are the Plutocrats, the Frog.)

So, Appius Claudius, as the Presiding Magistrate, has made the Proposal to raise 2 more Legions (not 3, yet), which will cost 20 Talents now (plus an extra 4 Talents ongoing per Turn).

The Plutocrats apparently vote together in a block "for", so 9 votes for.

Based on Tripoli's recommendation shortly afterward, the Militarists (next in the Frog's declared order) presumably block-vote for, adding 6 votes. Current tally 15 votes for.

Among the remaining factions there are currently 7 (Aristo) + 7 (Conservs) + 7 (Pops) = 21 votes outstanding.

The next Faction to block-vote "For" will seal the vote.

I.I.'s Aristocrats are next.
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JasonPratt

That seals the voting majority then! -- I'll reduce the Republic Treasury a little later this afternoon, after work, and add the 3rd and 4th Legions to the Active Pool.

I think the last possible business for this Senate Phase is simply a Proposal to send one of the Consuls (either Appius Claudius, or Cincinnatus -- and everyone has been talking about Cinc) with x-number of Legions, off to War.

I've dropped a note to the Frog.
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JasonPratt

While I'm waiting for Steam to finish updating, so I can get on TTS and adjust the board:

The current edition of the Living Rules explicitly prohibit batching proposals of different types, such as "I Propose we raise two more Legions; and I Propose we then send all four Active Legions to fight against the 1st Latin War under command of the Consul Cincinnatus."

However, the rules don't explicitly prohibit line-voting on proposal batches of the same type (where those are allowed, which is usually, with a few exceptions.)

So I'm going to umpire a rule alteration, allowing batch proposals of different types, in order to expedite asynchronous play (where it may be hours or a few days between players checking in), with the provision that senators (and Factions as a block) can line-vote. Extra vote activist abilities would still apply on a line-by-line basis within the batched proposal.

For example, a Faction might have voted "For" raising the Legions but "Against" them being sent to fight the 1st Latin war under Cincinnatus. Maybe the Faction wanted them sent against some other War on the board, or sent under the other Consul, or sent as reinforcements to a Proconsul already at the War rather than under command of a separate senator -- but still agreed with raising another two Legions.

I think this should help move the game along better.  O:-) I wish I had thought of it a day sooner...  ::)  :P


Well, we can be sure that the Plutocrats and the Aristocrats will vote in favor of sending out Cincinnatus to fight the 1st Latin War with all four Active Legions (because that has been their stated plan, once the number of Legions were sorted out, which they already voted for). And I think we can presume the Militarists will agree, because Tripoli was recommending basically this. (He might prefer one of his own senators go, but that isn't possible since none are Consul; and it would be self-defeating for him to propose the less capable Appius go instead, plus he'd have a hard time selling that to get enough votes from other Factions against the Plutocrat/Aristocrat block.)

In that case, we'll have a presumptive straw proposal and vote already settled; and since there's currently nothing else to vote on, we can safely presume the Frog will declare the Senate closed.

Unless I see some dissension on this from any of the parties involved, I'll proceed along then.
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JasonPratt

Okay, 3rd and 4th Legions raised from the Force Pool (the potential logistic pool) to the Active Pool. 5th, 6th, and 7th Legions remain potential.

Republic cash goes down 20 Talents from 36 to 16.

Cincinnatus takes the 1st, 2nd, 3rd, and 4th Legions, and leaves Rome to go fight against Tarquinius Superbus and the 1st Latin War!

This reduces the Aristocrat total Influence to 10, and their normal vote tally to 5.

This is an important concept to keep in mind for later, especially for I.I.'s Aristocrats, since the double-vote activist power of any of his knights depends on the Aristocrats having the most total Influence in Rome. Right now it doesn't matter, because there's nothing else to vote on and the Frog (presumably) closes the Senate after the Field Consul of the Republic departs with his Force.

A time will come however when having senators leave Rome to go fight wars or to govern provinces, may significantly affect the chances of certain votes being passed. And if Cinc is still out at War next Turn, he won't be around to vote on any Mandatory Business! -- and would have to be voted back to the Senate for his votes and influence to count on any subsequent non-Mandatory Business. (And then he couldn't be immediately sent back to any War because he wouldn't be a Consul anymore.)

I figured I should explain some of the subtleties here, before going on to the action.  >:D
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JasonPratt

TURN ONE -- COMBAT PHASE
---------------------------------

This is a fully automatic phase, and is notorious for the rules getting reaaaallllly squirrely, in an attempt to cover potential situations!

This Turn however, everything is almost as simple as possible. There's only one extra factor, the Enemy Leader.

Here's the pre-battle setup!

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JasonPratt

#131
(As you can see, Cinc brought his personal cash with him. This is only a factor later.)

Time to make sure I've introduced all the numbers, for a basic understanding of the War.

First, some numbers that make no difference. The [18a] is simply Cinc's family number; the brackets mean this family has a Statesman in the deck for this Era, and that's Cinc of course. The white number in the lower-right of the purple "Field Consul" chit, is a print reminder of how much Influence a senator normally gains from being elected Field Consul. This early in the game it's 3 Inf, however, not 5. The white number in the lower left of the purple chit, marks the rank of this office when trying to figure out which senator is currently the Highest Ranking Officer in Rome. Field Consul is 3rd rank. He's outranked by the Roman Consul, and by any Dictator (at #1). He's also outranked, along with everyone else, by anyone elected Consul for Life (i.e. as Emperor, not the same as a Dictator necessarily.)

Other numbers that make no difference include all a senators' stats except for Military, which we've thoroughly discussed already. (A Militarist senator's knights would help him logistically maximize the effectiveness of his units, by increasing his Mil skill, but Cinc belongs to the Aristocrat Faction. In this game. For now.)

Cinc can void automatic Disaster and Standoff rolls for two different wars, but not for this one, so that factor will be ignored.

You can see the 1st through 4th Legion chits aligned along the bottom of his card. (Tabletop Simulator is super-handy for being able to resize and make instant copies of pieces.  :smitten: ) Units in this game don't have a "damaged" state. They're either alive or dead, period. Eventually the Republic will unlock the ability for Legions to earn Veteran status, which is what the backside of those chits will show.

Up to the War itself. The Leader offsets some combat factors on the card, so I've carefully placed Tarqy over them. The number in the lower right corner remains: 2. The sword and shield icon next to it indicates this is Land power, not Sea power: you need Legions to fight it, not Fleets. (Fleets unlock in the Early Provincial Era, as Rome finally expands past the Italian peninsula.)

Tarqy's red +1 means he adds +1 to the War's power of 2. So this War has a power of 3.

Last but not least, the Black and Grey squares indicate the 3d6 totals which will trigger an automatic Disaster or Standoff combat result.

Next up, the actual fight!
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JasonPratt

Total number of Legions: 4
Add the Commander's Mil rating, up to the total of Legions: +4
Subtract the War's Land Strength: -2
Subtract the Enemy's rating: -1

Total is the Die Roll Modifier (DRM): +5

This will be added to the total of the 3d6:

[blockquote]Rolled 3d6 : 5, 4, 1, total 10[/blockquote]
ICEBREAKER THESIS CHRONOLOGY! -- Victor Suvorov's Stalin Grand Strategy theory, in lots and lots of chronological order...
Dawn of Armageddon -- narrative AAR for Dawn of War: Soulstorm: Ultimate Apocalypse
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RobO Q Campaign Generator -- archived classic CMBB/CMAK tool!

JasonPratt

10 doesn't trigger an automatic Disaster or Standoff for this War, yay!

10+5=15.

And that's a Victory! -- but with 3 Legions lost. (Scroll up again for the chart.)

Ouch, that will cost 30 Talents to (eventually, on some future Turn) replace. But on the bright side, it won't cost 3x2=6 Talents next Turn's revenue. ;)

This leads to the question of which Legions die, which isn't too important right now since all Legions are equal. But the basic concept (which I've added to the game) is that older Legions may be regarded as at least a little more experienced, and so I'm rolling a die (in TTS since that would be clunky here) for each Legion from highest to lowest number (4th to 1st in this case). Odds, it dies. If I pass the oldest Legion then I start again at the youngest. Once the death total has been met, I stop.

4th lives; 3rd lives; 2nd dies; 1st dies.

One more death needed: 4th lives; 3rd dies.

4th Legion survives. The others go back to the Force Pool.

Victory reduces Unrest down 1, from 1 to 0. Yay!

The Commander gaining the Victory (not prior or subsequent multiple Commanders attacking the War) increases both his Influence and also his Popularity by half the War's printed Fleet or Land strengths (including captured Provinces!), rounded up. So that's 2/1=1 to Cinc's Inf and Pop, up to 5 and 2 respectively. (A Militarist Commander would get an extra +1 to both Inf and Pop.)

For Land Victory, unless against Revolting Province, Rome cash increases by the Spoils number on the War card: so 10 Talents to the Treasury, up to 26!

Other printed card results: victory in this War unlocks local territory amounting to "Tax Concessions 1 and 2".

Normally an Enemy Leader would go to the Enemy slot in the Curia, but per his card Tarquinius discards (along with the War) upon this War's defeat.

All Commanders for this War return to their Faction mats, now being in Rome again. Any uncommanded Legions go directly to the Active Pool, but otherwise Legions stay with their Commander for now. So Cinc goes back to the Aristocrat mat, taking the 4th Legion with him. This brings the Aristocrats' normal vote tally and total influence back up to 7 and 15.

Cinc immediately loses 1 Popularity for every 2 Legions lost, rounded down. So he loses 1 Pop, down from 2 to 1.

He must also draw Mortality chits for each unit lost, so 3 chits! -- but his family number 18 doesn't come up, so he lives.

That takes us through all the results! Dinnertime for me now, and then I'll be back to explain the Revolution Phase, the finale for the Turn.
ICEBREAKER THESIS CHRONOLOGY! -- Victor Suvorov's Stalin Grand Strategy theory, in lots and lots of chronological order...
Dawn of Armageddon -- narrative AAR for Dawn of War: Soulstorm: Ultimate Apocalypse
Survive Harder! -- Two season narrative AAR, an Amazon Blood Bowl career.
PanzOrc Corpz Generals -- Fantasy Wars narrative AAR, half a combined campaign.
Khazâd du-bekâr! -- narrative dwarf AAR for LotR BfME2 RotWK campaign.
RobO Q Campaign Generator -- archived classic CMBB/CMAK tool!

JasonPratt

TURN ONE -- REVOLUTION PHASE
--------------------------------------

This Phase's name comes from the eventual ability of Factions to decide if any of their senators will try to win the game by themselves (along with any helpers from their Faction) by Rebelling against the Senate. But that won't unlock for several turns, until the Early Provincial Phase.

So, the Senate has safely shepherded the Republic through its first big year!

This being the first Rev Phase, Players now unlock the ability to donate Faction cards and/or Faction cash to each other, whether for free or for whatever considerations.  ^-^

These donations can be done at any time during a Turn, but the donations are kept Delayed on the receiving Player's sideboard until the next proper Phase arrives. Faction cards can be received now, and any donated now will be received immediately, but otherwise they won't arrive fully until the next Revolution Phase. Donated cash (which can only go between Faction Treasuries) won't arrive fully until the start of any Revenue Phase.

There are a few other choices for Players to make this Phase. While at a board these would be made in clockwise order around the table, for asynch I've decided they can be made by any Player at any time in any order.

1.) If you somehow have 6+ Faction cards, you must reduce your hand to 5 or less, by whatever means, before the Turn can end. You can discard any number of your Faction cards you want to, or trade them off, or simply donate them. No one has that many cards yet (by far), but theoretically everyone might decide to pile their remaining cards onto Malize as a welcoming gift!  <:-)

2.) Anyone may also now play any valid Statesmen or Concessions from your hand. Most Concessions still have not unlocked yet, but Tax Farming 1 and 2 (now that some towns in Latium have been punched down for trying to take back Rome for Tarqy), and the Mining Concession, are playable.

I'll be sending p-mails to everyone very soon to give you a quick reminder whether you can play your cards yet or not. Except for I.I., since the Aristocrats don't have any Faction cards right now!

Once everyone has stated publicly whether they'll play any cards, or not, the Phase and Turn One will be done; and I'll move on to Turn Two and the various automatic things which kick off the Turn.
ICEBREAKER THESIS CHRONOLOGY! -- Victor Suvorov's Stalin Grand Strategy theory, in lots and lots of chronological order...
Dawn of Armageddon -- narrative AAR for Dawn of War: Soulstorm: Ultimate Apocalypse
Survive Harder! -- Two season narrative AAR, an Amazon Blood Bowl career.
PanzOrc Corpz Generals -- Fantasy Wars narrative AAR, half a combined campaign.
Khazâd du-bekâr! -- narrative dwarf AAR for LotR BfME2 RotWK campaign.
RobO Q Campaign Generator -- archived classic CMBB/CMAK tool!