Grogheads 2014 Fantasy Baseball Season

Started by Bison, February 23, 2014, 07:41:12 PM

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MetalDog

Geek, another thing to look at when you are looking for pitchers, click the Players tab.  There are three drop downs.  The middle will give you a list of Positions, and one of the options is P (Probable).  If you click on that, and then click the Filter button, the screen will show you all of the SP for the next days matches.

As for hitters, or pitchers really, with only eight teams, and shallow benches, there really isn't any reason to hold on to a player that isn't performing.  The caliber of player that is available to be picked up is outstanding compared to most other leagues.  And if you REALLY want to put your nose to the grindstone and make some hay, you can go to MLB.com.  That is the home page for Major League Baseball.  Anything you could possibly want to know is there.  Including sortable statistics that might give you insight to how players are performing relative to other players.
And the One Song to Rule Them All is Gimme Shelter - Rolling Stones


"If its a Balrog, I don't think you get an option to not consent......." - bob

Marty Ward

Geek, the thing about baseball that is way different that football is that the season is so long that averages are really a good way to judge a player. Just about every player has hot and cold streaks that make it seem like they are a different player than they have been in the past but unlike a RB in football, baseball players don't usually just fall off a cliff regarding production nor do a lot of baseball players have career years. Some will but most won't. Some will also have the worst year of their career. 

For a player with a track record of 3-4 years in the league you can usually assume they will be close to their averages in all categories by the end of the year. They won't hit them exactly but they will probably be within 10-20% of them. So if a player has averaged 20 HR, 100R and 100 RBI a year they will probably end up hitting 16-25 HR, 80-120R and 80-120 RBI's. If they have 10, 30 and 40 at the 1/4 mark you can't assume they will hit 40, 120 and 160. They will taper off and probably end up slightly higher than their historical averages but they won't keep up that pace. For fantasy purposes you want this player early (because he may only hit 20, 90, 80 the rest of the year) and they may make a good trade candidate as you will get better value back because the current stats project out so good.

Rookies and 2nd year starters are different in that you don't know what will happen but if you have a new player that is having a great start, hold them because it could be they are just one of these special players that can really help you. Dee Gordon comes to mind, he has never played more than 90 games a year but this year he is starting every game and he can win you Steals by himself. He is hitting decent, leads off and is on a team that can score. He should be pretty good for helping big time in at least 3 offensive categories, one of which is real hard to come by.

Pitching is always the hardest in Head to Head leagues because you can only start 2 SP and 2 RP and pitchers seem to get hurt more severely than position players. If I have 3 RP I always seem to pick the wrong 2 to start and miss out on saves. You want good starters on teams that win otherwise your starters will not get to many wins and they also pitch worse when their team is struggling to win games. K's WHIP and ERA are about the only thing totally in their control.

Now is a good time to evaluate players. If a player is way over performing it might be that he is having a career year but it also more likely they may just be off to a great start and the dog days will slow their pace. Conversely if a player is way under performing, and he is not hurt or on a team that is just doing horrible, they may be ready to explode and have a monster year for here on out. You need to decide which is which because if the get hot everyone will want them. When you get players who are on a hot streak they can carry your team.

You are right about the size of the league making more quality players available MetalDog. There are players on the waiver wire that are owned by 80-90% of leagues so there are some pretty good people out there to pick up.
If it looks like chicken, tastes like chicken, and feels like chicken but Chuck Norris says its beef, then it's beef.

If women had apostrophes instead of periods they would be even more possessive!

undercovergeek

Quote from: Marty Ward on June 03, 2014, 08:16:23 AM
Geek, the thing about baseball that is way different that football is that the season is so long that averages are really a good way to judge a player. Just about every player has hot and cold streaks that make it seem like they are a different player than they have been in the past but unlike a RB in football, baseball players don't usually just fall off a cliff regarding production nor do a lot of baseball players have career years. Some will but most won't. Some will also have the worst year of their career. 

For a player with a track record of 3-4 years in the league you can usually assume they will be close to their averages in all categories by the end of the year. They won't hit them exactly but they will probably be within 10-20% of them. So if a player has averaged 20 HR, 100R and 100 RBI a year they will probably end up hitting 16-25 HR, 80-120R and 80-120 RBI's. If they have 10, 30 and 40 at the 1/4 mark you can't assume they will hit 40, 120 and 160. They will taper off and probably end up slightly higher than their historical averages but they won't keep up that pace. For fantasy purposes you want this player early (because he may only hit 20, 90, 80 the rest of the year) and they may make a good trade candidate as you will get better value back because the current stats project out so good.

Rookies and 2nd year starters are different in that you don't know what will happen but if you have a new player that is having a great start, hold them because it could be they are just one of these special players that can really help you. Dee Gordon comes to mind, he has never played more than 90 games a year but this year he is starting every game and he can win you Steals by himself. He is hitting decent, leads off and is on a team that can score. He should be pretty good for helping big time in at least 3 offensive categories, one of which is real hard to come by.

Pitching is always the hardest in Head to Head leagues because you can only start 2 SP and 2 RP and pitchers seem to get hurt more severely than position players. If I have 3 RP I always seem to pick the wrong 2 to start and miss out on saves. You want good starters on teams that win otherwise your starters will not get to many wins and they also pitch worse when their team is struggling to win games. K's WHIP and ERA are about the only thing totally in their control.

Now is a good time to evaluate players. If a player is way over performing it might be that he is having a career year but it also more likely they may just be off to a great start and the dog days will slow their pace. Conversely if a player is way under performing, and he is not hurt or on a team that is just doing horrible, they may be ready to explode and have a monster year for here on out. You need to decide which is which because if the get hot everyone will want them. When you get players who are on a hot streak they can carry your team.

You are right about the size of the league making more quality players available MetalDog. There are players on the waiver wire that are owned by 80-90% of leagues so there are some pretty good people out there to pick up.

thanks marty

Arctic Blast

Consecutive weeks with a winning record? What is this madness?!

bayonetbrant

I don't know - if it ever happens I'll weigh in
The key to surviving this site is to not say something which ends up as someone's tag line - Steelgrave

"their citizens (all of them counted as such) glorified their mythology of 'rights'...and lost track of their duties. No nation, so constituted, can endure." Robert Heinlein, Starship Troopers

bayonetbrant

The key to surviving this site is to not say something which ends up as someone's tag line - Steelgrave

"their citizens (all of them counted as such) glorified their mythology of 'rights'...and lost track of their duties. No nation, so constituted, can endure." Robert Heinlein, Starship Troopers

bayonetbrant

another good story

https://sports.yahoo.com/news/longtime-baseball-fixture-don-zimmer-012453277--mlb.html

dude made his minor league debut in 1949
He played with Jackie Robinson and was in a brawl with Pedro Martinez - so yeah, he'd been around forever

I'd hazard to guess that at some point in his career as a player, manager, or coach, he's shared the field with probably 70% of all the players to ever appear in the major leagues...  and that might be conservative!
The key to surviving this site is to not say something which ends up as someone's tag line - Steelgrave

"their citizens (all of them counted as such) glorified their mythology of 'rights'...and lost track of their duties. No nation, so constituted, can endure." Robert Heinlein, Starship Troopers

undercovergeek

i pitched enough!!

thats the first time this season

so.......... can we restart?  :P

bayonetbrant

#203
a great addenda to the Don Zimmer story

QuoteIn the 1990s, when the New York Yankees won more than anybody else but not enough for owner George Steinbrenner, after one particular loss the owner ordered every member of the coaching and training staffs and manager Joe Torre upstairs to his office at Yankee Stadium. As many as two dozen people sat and stood around the room, their heads drooped, knowing the lashing that was about to come. Steinbrenner didn't disappoint them with his fury.

"We have to do better," Steinbrenner said. "All of us. If there is anybody in this room who thinks they are doing everything they can to help the Yankees win, you can leave right now."

Don Zimmer got up out of his chair and walked out on Steinbrenner. The rest of the room managed to suppress both gasps and laughter.

Zimmer's wife, Soot, who had been waiting in the lobby and was expecting the usual lengthy Steinbrenner summit, knew it meant only one thing to see her husband get off the elevator so soon after the meeting began.

"You've been fired!"

Zimmer wasn't fired. He survived the walkout but maintained a simmering feud with the Boss, eventually citing Steinbrenner as the reason he quit as a Yankees coach after the 2003 season.


QuoteZimmer met Babe Ruth (in 1947), was a teammate of Jackie Robinson (1954-56) and played for Casey Stengel (1962). He was in uniform for some of the most iconic teams in history: the team that lost the most games ('62 Mets) and the team, including postseason play, that won the most games ('98 Yankees). He was in uniform for the only World Series championship for the Brooklyn Dodgers (1955), one of the most famous World Series home runs (Carlton Fisk's shot in 1975), one of the most famous regular season home runs (Bucky Dent in 1978), the Pine Tar Game (1983), the first night game at Wrigley Field (1988), the first game in Rockies history (1993), and all three perfect games thrown at Yankee Stadium (Don Larsen, David Wells and David Cone).
The key to surviving this site is to not say something which ends up as someone's tag line - Steelgrave

"their citizens (all of them counted as such) glorified their mythology of 'rights'...and lost track of their duties. No nation, so constituted, can endure." Robert Heinlein, Starship Troopers

MetalDog

Zim was awesome and will be sorely missed around baseball.  It's one of the things I love most about baseball, it's present is connected to its past in a way that the other sports never will be.
And the One Song to Rule Them All is Gimme Shelter - Rolling Stones


"If its a Balrog, I don't think you get an option to not consent......." - bob

Bison

Well that was not a good week for me.  Lots of pitching issues and about 5 days of cool bats.

Bring it on Marty!!!!!!!!!!!

MetalDog

FINALLY over five hundred!  It may only be one game over, but, it's over nonetheless :)
And the One Song to Rule Them All is Gimme Shelter - Rolling Stones


"If its a Balrog, I don't think you get an option to not consent......." - bob

bayonetbrant

Quote from: MetalDog on June 09, 2014, 06:15:15 AM
FINALLY over five hundred!  It may only be one game over, but, it's over nonetheless :)

you're welcome

I got a freakin' career day out of King Felix and still couldn't accomplish shit
The key to surviving this site is to not say something which ends up as someone's tag line - Steelgrave

"their citizens (all of them counted as such) glorified their mythology of 'rights'...and lost track of their duties. No nation, so constituted, can endure." Robert Heinlein, Starship Troopers

Bison

Well my team is in a complete free fall...

MetalDog

I just checked the season stat totals and it looks like 'geek has some AWESOME hitting!  Although, Marty is just killing it all the way around.
And the One Song to Rule Them All is Gimme Shelter - Rolling Stones


"If its a Balrog, I don't think you get an option to not consent......." - bob