Author Topic: Middle Provincial Era GROGPUBLIC game thread  (Read 91055 times)

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Offline malize

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Re: Early Provincial Era GROGPUBLIC game thread
« Reply #1200 on: February 18, 2019, 03:41:13 PM »
Iíve got nothing against Trips more conservative route, just want to make sure that in our efforts not to lose we avoid the chance of winning :)

Offline IncompetentIdiot

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Re: Early Provincial Era GROGPUBLIC game thread
« Reply #1201 on: February 18, 2019, 05:59:57 PM »
Attacking Carthage seems a bit of a risk because we'll still need another turn to defeat them on land, and if the second war is drawn before them that'll complicate the task substantially. If we do decide to do that, I think we should deploy Fabius with the fleet now and then Scipio in the future, since I'd prefer to have the better odds of success provided by his voiding of D/S results at the point when we know we can end the war. However, I still lean towards taking down two of the other wars.

Offline JasonPratt

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Re: Early Provincial Era GROGPUBLIC game thread
« Reply #1202 on: February 18, 2019, 07:19:05 PM »
Coming up on 20 thousand view for this thread!

...I expect half of those are mine, but congratulations to all the Players anyway!   O0  :notworthy:
ICEBREAKER THESIS CHRONOLOGY! -- Victor Suvorov's Stalin Grand Strategy theory, in chronological order. Lots and lots of order...

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Survive Harder! In the grim darkness of the bowl there is only, um, Amazons. And tentacles and midgets. Not remotely what you're thinking! ...okay, maybe a little remotely.

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Offline JasonPratt

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Re: Early Provincial Era GROGPUBLIC game thread
« Reply #1203 on: February 18, 2019, 07:28:56 PM »
Meanwhile, Punic D/S results are 8, 11, 12, 13 and 14 (unless you send someone to nix the Punic D/S results, in which case Hamilcar's 8 and 12 remain).

Those aren't Defeats, exactly, but they sure aren't wins. ;)  If you send Fabius Maximus of the Populists, he'll have a 50.45% chance of a D/S result outright, even though he'll only take half losses (so 25% losses for a Disaster roll, and 12.5% losses for a Standoff roll, rounded up either way).

If you send Scipio Africanus (of the Aristocrats) as Commander, he only has a 21.29% chance of a D/S result. But he'll take all of any casualties.

Either of them have Mil 5, so their boost to the Fleets will be the same either way (including if you send either of them as Dictator with a Militarist MoShips of your choice.)

Those of you who are wondering whether Hamilcar = Hannibal, the answer is no: his step-bro can and will show up eventually, and they stack their bonuses and their D/S risks (unless there's overlap between them). I do not recall whether Hannibal is slated to show up in the Early Era, but I would conservatively advise planning to expect him!

There's a reason why between them they nearly wiped the Republic.


The good news, such as it is, is that if you manage to score a Naval Victory, you never have to worry about punching through their navy again. Including if a Matching War shows up: it could have its own navy to punch through later, but it won't share with the preceding War. (I will be surprised if the 2nd War has a Fleet Strength though; it's supposed to represent Hannibal invading overland, as historically. Then again, Hamilcar is supposed to be in Spain, so...!)
« Last Edit: February 18, 2019, 07:32:42 PM by JasonPratt »
ICEBREAKER THESIS CHRONOLOGY! -- Victor Suvorov's Stalin Grand Strategy theory, in chronological order. Lots and lots of order...

Dawn of Armageddon -- a narrative AAR for Dawn of War: Soulstorm: Ultimate Apocalypse: The Hunt Begins: Insert Joke Here!

Survive Harder! In the grim darkness of the bowl there is only, um, Amazons. And tentacles and midgets. Not remotely what you're thinking! ...okay, maybe a little remotely.

PanzOrc Corpz Generals -- Season One complete; Fantasy Wars AAR, lots of screenies.

Offline JasonPratt

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Re: Early Provincial Era GROGPUBLIC game thread
« Reply #1204 on: February 18, 2019, 07:39:57 PM »
Antiochus and the Syrians combine for 14,15,16 and 17 D/S, which amount to a 15.74% chance. But you have no one who can nix the main War's D/S chances. They only require 2 Fleets for Support, and are the weakest overall opponent with the most immediate spoils for winning.


Philip and the Macedonian Wars combine 11,12,14,15 and 18, which amount to 36.1% chance. But Paullus Macedonicus of the Conservatives can reduce that to only the 14 and 15, so 11.57% chance of a D/S. (This is the least chance of a D/S result you're facing.)

You don't have to Defeat a Navy first, but you'll have to commit 10 Fleets to Supply the attack. They'll be the hardest land battle, at 18 strength; even the Punics with Hamilcar will only be 13 strength! (The Syrians will be 11, which isn't much easier.)
ICEBREAKER THESIS CHRONOLOGY! -- Victor Suvorov's Stalin Grand Strategy theory, in chronological order. Lots and lots of order...

Dawn of Armageddon -- a narrative AAR for Dawn of War: Soulstorm: Ultimate Apocalypse: The Hunt Begins: Insert Joke Here!

Survive Harder! In the grim darkness of the bowl there is only, um, Amazons. And tentacles and midgets. Not remotely what you're thinking! ...okay, maybe a little remotely.

PanzOrc Corpz Generals -- Season One complete; Fantasy Wars AAR, lots of screenies.

Offline JasonPratt

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Re: Early Provincial Era GROGPUBLIC game thread
« Reply #1205 on: February 18, 2019, 07:56:07 PM »
Currently y'all have 11 Fleets. They can only pull 13 Fleets against you, and you can bring enough Mil skill between Scipio and one of the Militarists to double 13 or 14 Fleets.

22 (doubled 11) minus 13 = +9. That's enough to guarantee either a Victory (probably without casualties) or a very unlikely Stalemate with 1 or 0 casualties. If you bought one more Fleet, you'd have enough Mil to double that one, even with Manlius as the Master of Ships, and no chance of anything but Victory -- aside from a 21.29% chance at a Disaster or Standoff!

Moreover, if you loaded up their Navy assault with 12 regular Legions (which would leave 3 Vets and 3 Regulars over), then Scipio and his MoH would be able to hit the Punics immediately with the same chances of Victory, or of course the 21.29% of D/S. Your chances of passing one D/S would be 78.71%; your chances of passing both in sequence would be the square of that or about 62%.

This of course assumes you bring all Fleets for your Navy now, meaning neither of the other Wars can be fought. Or you can buy 3 Fleets, add 1 to the Punic War for a nothing-but-victory-or-D/S roll, and send the other 2 to supply a crushing Land Battle against Syria.
« Last Edit: February 18, 2019, 07:59:00 PM by JasonPratt »
ICEBREAKER THESIS CHRONOLOGY! -- Victor Suvorov's Stalin Grand Strategy theory, in chronological order. Lots and lots of order...

Dawn of Armageddon -- a narrative AAR for Dawn of War: Soulstorm: Ultimate Apocalypse: The Hunt Begins: Insert Joke Here!

Survive Harder! In the grim darkness of the bowl there is only, um, Amazons. And tentacles and midgets. Not remotely what you're thinking! ...okay, maybe a little remotely.

PanzOrc Corpz Generals -- Season One complete; Fantasy Wars AAR, lots of screenies.

Offline JasonPratt

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Re: Early Provincial Era GROGPUBLIC game thread
« Reply #1206 on: February 18, 2019, 08:14:20 PM »
In case you're wondering, no it is not normally possible to kill off an Enemy Leader during one of his Wars. He stays until Defeated, and then either shifts to the next Matching War if that's already active, or goes to the Curia to await the next War (where he has a random chance of about 1/3 of dying of natural causes meanwhile).

There are only two ways an Enemy Leader outright discards during a War. (1) all his Wars have been Defeated (e.g. all four Macedonian Wars for Philip); or (2) a Random Event allowing the HRAO at the end of the Senate Phase to assassinate one Enemy at War of his choice.

On the other hand, it's also possible for a Random Event to allow an Enemy to go into Refuge to help some other War! -- or worse, to Activate and help ALL CURRENT WARS!  :o Stacking with their own Leaders of course.  :hide:


...y'all had it easy during the Tutorial Eras.  >:D >:D >:D Now the game is getting serious about crushing the Republic.
ICEBREAKER THESIS CHRONOLOGY! -- Victor Suvorov's Stalin Grand Strategy theory, in chronological order. Lots and lots of order...

Dawn of Armageddon -- a narrative AAR for Dawn of War: Soulstorm: Ultimate Apocalypse: The Hunt Begins: Insert Joke Here!

Survive Harder! In the grim darkness of the bowl there is only, um, Amazons. And tentacles and midgets. Not remotely what you're thinking! ...okay, maybe a little remotely.

PanzOrc Corpz Generals -- Season One complete; Fantasy Wars AAR, lots of screenies.

Offline JasonPratt

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Re: Early Provincial Era GROGPUBLIC game thread
« Reply #1207 on: February 18, 2019, 08:23:29 PM »
Attacking Carthage seems a bit of a risk because we'll still need another turn to defeat them on land....

Not necessarily. If you send the Legions with the Fleets, under the same Commander, the Legions will immediately make a Land attack after a Naval Victory, under the same Commander -- if enough Fleets survive to secure the Supply lane.

Alternately, if you send the Legions after the Fleets, under a different Commander, they'll also make an immediate Land attack after a Naval Victory (if enough Supply Fleets survive).

The difference is that sailing immediately, they risk taking casualties with the Fleet, but they get the benefits of the Fleet Commander during the land battle. Sailing afterward, they'll need a second Commander for the ground assault, who therefore can't be put to use elsewhere this Turn, but they don't risk taking casualties at sea.

Either way, the Deployed Legions will not be usable somewhere else this Turn, of course.

So the Legions could possibly hit Carthage this Turn. If the Roman Navy Defeats the Carthage Navy (and still has 10 surviving Fleets).
ICEBREAKER THESIS CHRONOLOGY! -- Victor Suvorov's Stalin Grand Strategy theory, in chronological order. Lots and lots of order...

Dawn of Armageddon -- a narrative AAR for Dawn of War: Soulstorm: Ultimate Apocalypse: The Hunt Begins: Insert Joke Here!

Survive Harder! In the grim darkness of the bowl there is only, um, Amazons. And tentacles and midgets. Not remotely what you're thinking! ...okay, maybe a little remotely.

PanzOrc Corpz Generals -- Season One complete; Fantasy Wars AAR, lots of screenies.

Offline Erax

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Re: Early Provincial Era GROGPUBLIC game thread
« Reply #1208 on: February 19, 2019, 05:51:42 AM »
Attacking Carthage seems a bit of a risk because we'll still need another turn to defeat them on land, and if the second war is drawn before them that'll complicate the task substantially. If we do decide to do that, I think we should deploy Fabius with the fleet now and then Scipio in the future, since I'd prefer to have the better odds of success provided by his voiding of D/S results at the point when we know we can end the war. However, I still lean towards taking down two of the other wars.

If we don't use Scipio, all those stacked D/S results mean we have a 50/50 chance no matter how many fleets we send, that's why I want him for the naval battle (and next turn for the land battle, if we have the chance). Sending fleets and legions seems like too much of a risk to me however, because we'll be leaving 2 wars behind us, so we should take the legions (that we won't be using) and send them vs. the Syrians. Who by the way can give us some good spoils to help with the Republic's finances.

We have 11 fleets, we need to send 2 to support the Syrian force. We could raise 4 and still keep a gold reserve in case we get any bad events later. We could send Scipio as Dictator + Manlius as MoH + 13 fleets vs. the Punic War and that would give us a +13 modifier. We'll need the extra fleets anyway to support the Macedonian force + any new wars (which there will be, the Early Republic has to face many of them) next turn.

Note that whoever defeats the Syrians gets the Spolia Opima.

Offline Tripoli

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Re: Early Provincial Era GROGPUBLIC game thread
« Reply #1209 on: February 19, 2019, 06:44:49 AM »
Just so I'm clear on the forces available.  Right now we have 11 Fleets, and 18 legions, 3 of which are veteran.  Is this correct?

Offline JasonPratt

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Re: Early Provincial Era GROGPUBLIC game thread
« Reply #1210 on: February 19, 2019, 07:26:44 AM »
Just so I'm clear on the forces available.  Right now we have 11 Fleets, and 18 legions, 3 of which are veteran.  Is this correct?

Ah, whoops, I totally forgot to report this (going back to check) in the pre-Senate information.  :-[

And I'm not where I can directly verify at the moment. But when I wrote my post(s) last night, I was looking directly at the Active Pool for a while, and occasionally even hand-counting the chits just to be sure.

So I know those figures are correct in the Active Pool: 11 Fleets, and 15 regular Legions plus 3 Vets (18 Legions total). Currently no forces are assigned to any Wars, so what's in the Active Pool is what you've got.

You've also recently unlocked the final core logistic maximum of 25/25, so there are 25-11=14 more potential Fleets to be Raised from the Force Pool; and 25-18=7 more potential Legions.

(Any further combat strength will come from Provinces, and will mostly be tied to the Provinces, unless Governors rebel. Provincial Forces can't go to War against anyone else except Wars attacking them, and against Rome in rebellion.)
ICEBREAKER THESIS CHRONOLOGY! -- Victor Suvorov's Stalin Grand Strategy theory, in chronological order. Lots and lots of order...

Dawn of Armageddon -- a narrative AAR for Dawn of War: Soulstorm: Ultimate Apocalypse: The Hunt Begins: Insert Joke Here!

Survive Harder! In the grim darkness of the bowl there is only, um, Amazons. And tentacles and midgets. Not remotely what you're thinking! ...okay, maybe a little remotely.

PanzOrc Corpz Generals -- Season One complete; Fantasy Wars AAR, lots of screenies.

Offline malize

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Re: Early Provincial Era GROGPUBLIC game thread
« Reply #1211 on: February 19, 2019, 07:51:02 AM »
At this point Iíll publicly allocate my votes to whatever consular/censor/dictator combo legion/fleet raising, deployments and commands that Tripoli puts forth

Offline Erax

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Re: Early Provincial Era GROGPUBLIC game thread
« Reply #1212 on: February 19, 2019, 10:14:10 AM »
One observation regarding legions: we should send one regular legion to the new province if possible. It will allow provincial forces to fight at full strength.

Offline Tripoli

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Re: Early Provincial Era GROGPUBLIC game thread
« Reply #1213 on: February 19, 2019, 10:51:16 AM »
So far, I haven't heard from anyone other suggestions on how to handle this turn, so I'll go ahead and move forward with my various proposals for votes this evening.  If anyone has any good ideas between now atd 6 PM CST tonight, let me know. Otherwise I will be putting my plan up to a vote.  One thing I haven't gotten any input on is who gets to be Censor.  If someone wants it, I'll be happy to discuss, with the public agreement that there will be no prosecutions this turn of any faction, as long as they don't actively prevent or interfere with the prosecutions of the war in accordance with the majority in the Senaate by the playing of a Tribune card. In other words, if the Senate votes one way, and someone plays a Tribune card to prevent the Senate vote from going into effect, then they can be prosecuted.  Otherwise, no prosecutions this turn.

So, give me nominations for the Censor NLT 6 pm tonight. Otherwise, I'll make the decision.  I'll have the proposal for voting on the various wars done by then also.   

Offline malize

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Re: Early Provincial Era GROGPUBLIC game thread
« Reply #1214 on: February 19, 2019, 11:30:18 AM »
I nominate Flaminius of the progressives as censor