Author Topic: IceBreakChron IV: IGNITING THE WAR  (Read 110 times)

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Offline JasonPratt

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Re: IceBreakChron IV: IGNITING THE WAR
« Reply #15 on: Yesterday at 12:08:26 PM »
August 1939: Red Army border guards are the pool for NKVD Special Operation Forces (SOFs), the most aggressive strike formations in the Soviet military since the Civil War, notorious for their brutality even by NKVD standards.

After the Civil War, their military formation was reduced to just one division, the 1st NKVD SOF Division, under NKVD Brigade Commander Pavel Artyomyev, stationed near Moscow. In "Guarding Soviet Borders", p. 106, the author reports that a standalone battalion of NKVD SOF is put under command of Zhukov, as he prepares to blitz the Japanese in Mongolia. Their prime mission: "sweep out the immediate vicinity of the front". During the surprise blitz, Zhukov is pleased with their performance.

In their wake will soon come freshly spawned SOFs in droves, the hand-picked best the border guards have to offer. Per operational doctrine, they will be deployed precisely where the next "liberations" would soon be ready to roll, where "radical socio-political transformations" are about to begin.

Specifically, they will be deployed on the borders of Poland and the other Eastern European nations to be invaded by the Soviets throughout 1939 and 1940.
ICEBREAKER THESIS CHRONOLOGY! -- Victor Suvorov's Stalin Grand Strategy theory, in chronological order. Lots and lots of order...

Dawn of Armageddon -- a narrative AAR for Dawn of War: Soulstorm: Ultimate Apocalypse: The Hunt Begins: Insert Joke Here!

Survive Harder! In the grim darkness of the bowl there is only, um, Amazons. And tentacles and midgets. Not remotely what you're thinking! ...okay, maybe a little remotely.

PanzOrc Corpz Generals -- Season One complete; Fantasy Wars AAR, lots of screenies.

Offline JasonPratt

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Re: IceBreakChron IV: IGNITING THE WAR
« Reply #16 on: Yesterday at 01:45:33 PM »
The Day the (second!) Second World War Begins
------------------------------------------------------

The day has come -- the day a national government officially declares that the second World War has started, and officially acts in accordance with that acknowledgement!

That nation isn't anyone in the Western Hemisphere, nor the Southern Hemisphere. It isn't Germany, Poland, France, Britain, or Italy.

And the day is not September 1st, 1939.


The day is August 19th, 1939.

Zhukov telegrams Stalin, "Main Mission Accomplished." His main mission? To achieve total strategic surprise in preparing to invade Japanese-occupied territory, over the Japanese 6th Army. Stalin sends back a one word code: "Good."

Japan's war on China and nearby south-east Asian areas, has been going now since at least 1932; and of course this will segue into the Second World War. But no nation has declared that fighting to be World War II yet, because China isn't one nation, much less one of the Great Powers, but a group of warlord dictators. On August 20th, one of the Great Powers, the Soviet Union, will go to war with Japan -- very briefly.

So briefly that one would think this doesn't count as the start of a second world war...


On this same day (before or after receiving this telegram is unclear), Stalin orders his diplomats to cease diplomacy with the French and British delegates.

Vyacheslav Molotov, the formal head of the Soviet govenment, and so also the People's Commissar of Foreign Affairs, is ordered by party secretary Comrade Stalin to summon the Nazi ambassador, Friedrich von der Schulenberg. to Molotov's office. When Molotov receives Schulenberg, Stalin is listening in by microphone from his own office in the Kremlin, where he has called together Shaposhnikov, Beria, and Malenkov. Molotov's attitude to the German ambassador is (paraphrased by Suvorov), "All right, let Ribbentrop come, perhaps we will agree on something, perhaps we will find a solution to the question of Danzig and Poland."

After the meeting Stalin holds a fast discussion with his team, now including Molotov; with the result that Schulenberg has barely had time to reach the embassy to write a report, when he receives another call from the Kremlin: Molotov awaits you for a new meeting! This time Molotov hands him a draft from Stalin, to send as a preliminary proposal for cooperative action together, including in Poland. Stalin, via Molotov, tells Schulenberg, that Ribbentrop can be received in Moscow on August the 26th or 27th; but Hitler will soon tearfully(!??) beg to move Ribbentrop's visit up to August 23. (No idea where Suvorov gets the idea that Hitler begged with tears about this, although he is certainly happy to take the deal.)

Already here on the 19th, however, Stalin has given Schulenberg a draft of the impending mutual agreement with the directions that "the agreement will be in force only given the simultaneous signing of the special protocol on points of interest to the Agreeing Parties, regarding foreign policy." This vaguery is meant to spoof any interception of the cable to Hitler: Stalin means that the forthcoming public non-aggression Pact, and the equally public joint Nazi/Soviet Trade and Economic Agreement (which has already been ready for a long time, and which Stalin directs the Soviet Trade Mission in Berlin to immediately sign), will only count if Hitler through Ribbentrop agrees to the secret protocols about invading Poland and how to divide up the country and spheres of influence afterward.

Stalin is already selling enough Soviet oil, grain, cotton, iron ore, magnesium, chrome, vinadium, zinc, nicklet, and tin to Hitler, that cutting off these supplies would ruin Hitler's ability to make war -- not even counting a more direct threat to throw all Soviet support behind Poland, swamping Germany's attack with five or even ten million troops as well as any number of tanks, warplanes, and artillery. Stalin is agreeing, provisional to the Secret Protocols, to expand this trade agreement substantially, knowing full well that Hitler will use the materials to wage war not only on Poland, but on France and Britain -- who have given Stalin assurances they will not stand idly by anymore if Hitler goes for Poland!
ICEBREAKER THESIS CHRONOLOGY! -- Victor Suvorov's Stalin Grand Strategy theory, in chronological order. Lots and lots of order...

Dawn of Armageddon -- a narrative AAR for Dawn of War: Soulstorm: Ultimate Apocalypse: The Hunt Begins: Insert Joke Here!

Survive Harder! In the grim darkness of the bowl there is only, um, Amazons. And tentacles and midgets. Not remotely what you're thinking! ...okay, maybe a little remotely.

PanzOrc Corpz Generals -- Season One complete; Fantasy Wars AAR, lots of screenies.

Offline JasonPratt

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Re: IceBreakChron IV: IGNITING THE WAR
« Reply #17 on: Yesterday at 01:51:23 PM »
Didn't I say some nation declares on this day that the Second World War has already started?!

Yep.

Stalin calls the Politburo together on this day, August 19, 1939, to start the process of summoning a fourth emergency session of the Deputies of the Supreme Soviet together in Moscow (which will take 7 to 12 days for some Deputies to arrive, due to the vast Russian distances, even by air where available). Their purpose: to enact universal conscription -- the conscription which Soviet doctrine expects to precede mobilization for the final revolutionary war against all property owners on Earth.

As long as Stalin taught his people, even the children, that Hitler must be feared as a tyrant and a monster, the USSR did not need universal conscription. As soon as a non-aggression pact with Hitler is being seriously offered, and not even signed yet, a universal mandatory draft all of a sudden becomes necessary!

Then why do this now? Stalin justifies the conscription, now to the Politburo, later to the Supreme Soviet, on this basis:

that a second world war has already started.

Remember, in Soviet military and ideological doctrine, Stalin has been preaching a necessary and expected second world war among property owners, in Lenin's Marxist theories, to weaken the imperialists and capitalists enough for a final worldwide revolutionary war to succeed -- with the Red Army invading nations to "liberate" the uprising workers.

Stalin, having contacted Hitler earlier today (through Hitler's ambassador to Moscow) to offer a deal for conquering Poland together, gives a speech to the Politburo explaining his justification for regarding the second world war as starting today, thus requiring universal conscription leading to mobilization.

Someone in the Soviet Union leaks this Politburo resolution to the French news agency Havas, later this year (see November 30th). Suvorov thinks this was leaked as a tacit protest to stop Stalin's plan, similar to plans for Lenin's October 1917 coup being leaked by Central Committee members Zinoviev and Kamenev to the capitalist press. The speech given by Stalin on this day will remain secret until found by historian Tatyana Semenovna Bushueva, in the Special Archives of the USSR, fund 7, index 1, document 1223, and published in the December 1994 issue of "Novyi Mir" [New World]. Suvorov acknowledges that (at the time of publishing "Chief Culprit" anyway) Russian historians dispute and deny the validity of this document, claiming it is unclear how and when the document was made. Suvorov regards it as authentic.

Some key excerpts quoted by Suvorov: "If we make a pact of mutual aid with Great Britain and France, Germany will give up Poland and... the War will be averted. [...] If we accept Germany's proposal about the conclusion of a pact regarding invasion, she will of course attack Poland, and France and England's involvement in this war will be inevitable. Western Europe will be subjected to serious disorders and disturbances. Under these conditions, we will have many chances to stay on the sidelines of the conflict, and we will be able to count on our advantageous entrance into the war... It is in the interest of the USSR -- the motherland of workers -- that the war unfolds between the Reich and the capitalist Anglo-French block. It is necessary to do everything within our powers to make this war last as long as possible, in order to exhaust the two sides. It is precisely for this reason that we must agree to signing the pact, proposed by Germany, and work on making this war, once declared, last a maximum amount of time. [...] All the people who fall under the 'protection' of victorious Germany will also become our allies. We will have a broad field of action for development of the world revolution."


Also on August 19th, 1939, according to Suvorov, the Politburo starts the plan of mustering forces in military districts in the interior, and then dispatching them to districts along the (not yet existent!) western border; a plan the Supreme Soviet, now being summoned, will approve around 15 days from now (once enough of them arrive). Suvorov is unclear whether the Politburo specifically resolved this plan today, or implicitly resolved it as part of universal conscription.
ICEBREAKER THESIS CHRONOLOGY! -- Victor Suvorov's Stalin Grand Strategy theory, in chronological order. Lots and lots of order...

Dawn of Armageddon -- a narrative AAR for Dawn of War: Soulstorm: Ultimate Apocalypse: The Hunt Begins: Insert Joke Here!

Survive Harder! In the grim darkness of the bowl there is only, um, Amazons. And tentacles and midgets. Not remotely what you're thinking! ...okay, maybe a little remotely.

PanzOrc Corpz Generals -- Season One complete; Fantasy Wars AAR, lots of screenies.

Offline JasonPratt

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Re: IceBreakChron IV: IGNITING THE WAR
« Reply #18 on: Yesterday at 01:55:12 PM »
August 20, 1939, the brief Mongolian War: at Khalkhyn-Gol, Zhukov prepares and successfully launches a blitzkrieg invasion, demonstrating that surprise blitzkrieg forces should be closer to the border than 30 to 40 miles if possible. 320 attack units, each 30 to 75 men, as well as isolated detachments numbering 100-150 men, are formed from border guard troops, in accordance with the continually refined Triandafillov invasion plans. "Drills are run on the basis of surprise attack plans worked out and refined in advance... Most important to achieving success was supposed to be the element of surprise." (JMH, 1965, #8, p.12)

Zhukov has forbidden almost all use of radio communications in setting up his blitz, and even land wire instructions are sent with short sentences with contexts only understood by the two people speaking. Each officer receives directions only within the frames of his duties and has no concept of the overall plan, the scope, or the dates of the offensive. Many people do not even know there is to be an offensive today at all! To fool Japanese spies, Zhukov before all has fooled his own soldiers and officers, many of whom until the last moment thought they were starting the preparations for a long period of defense.

Marshal Zhukov has ordered temporary bunkers built right up next to the border, off to the side of the intended axes of invasion, where they can support the first few minutes of the invasion without getting in the way, and without wasting resources on building real defenses on the border. Zhukov does see the political value of pretending to build defenses on the border, however, as he recalls in his "Recollections" later, p.161: "With these measures we strove to lead the enemy to believe there was a total absence on our side of preparations for offense, making a show of engaging in wide-ranging work on setting up defenses, and nothing but defenses."

The Japanese 6th Army has fallen for the maskirovka (the masquerade), and are caught off guard by Zhukov's surprise attack.
ICEBREAKER THESIS CHRONOLOGY! -- Victor Suvorov's Stalin Grand Strategy theory, in chronological order. Lots and lots of order...

Dawn of Armageddon -- a narrative AAR for Dawn of War: Soulstorm: Ultimate Apocalypse: The Hunt Begins: Insert Joke Here!

Survive Harder! In the grim darkness of the bowl there is only, um, Amazons. And tentacles and midgets. Not remotely what you're thinking! ...okay, maybe a little remotely.

PanzOrc Corpz Generals -- Season One complete; Fantasy Wars AAR, lots of screenies.

Offline JasonPratt

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Re: IceBreakChron IV: IGNITING THE WAR
« Reply #19 on: Yesterday at 01:58:58 PM »
At 5:45am, 153 Soviet bombers, under the cover of a corresponding number of fighters, carry out a surprise raid over Japanese air bases and command posts. Artillery joins in immediately, for 2 hours and 45 minutes -- a short time, relatively, for Soviet bombardment doctrine, but highly concentrated. During this time, Soviet air power turns around, lands, rearms (no need to refuel), and strikes with a second air raid! Zhukov ordered their air bases to be moved as close to the front lines as possible, not only allowing faster strike times and turnaround, but also allowing more ordnance instead of fuel. The bombers have not even reached cruising height before unloading their bombs, and returning. The main strike force features the excellent twin-engine SB bombers, totaling 181 aircraft; plus 23 of the TB-3 heavy bombers attacking from 1500 to 2000 meters. During the first hour and a half, not one Japanese artillery gun shoots back in response, and not even one Japanese aircraft gets off the ground.

At 9am, Zhukov's relatively weak center attacks to fix the enemy's direction, while his tanks speed around the flanks for envelopment, avoiding direct engagements to strike deep in the army's rear. Air bases are close enough to the front line, that the tanks can be easily given timely and accurate close air support.

Zhukov has also moved hospitals and supply bases to the front lines, quickly and efficiently providing ammunition, fuel, and everything necessary for battle, while also supporting the wounded promptly. Zhukov moved his and all other command posts to the front lines, so that he was personally able to see the battlefield panorama -- at least in the initial movements, and as the enemy's resistance collapsed he could move forward with his front line with no effort.

It should be noted that setting up these forward command posts was no easy feat. In the barren waste of Mongolia, the troops had to be supplied with everything, including wood to burn in the field kitchens. The main supply for the Baikal Military District headquarters was 1500 kilometers from the staging line; but not everything could be found there. Supplies brought from factories and central storages to the MD HQ, for passing on to the staging line, had to travel 7000 to 8000 kilometers! The final stretch of railroad had a very limited load-bearing capacity, and ended in a deserted steppe. After that, trucks had to carry supplies and tow heavy weapons (or tanks and other combat vehicles had to roll on their own) another 650 to 700 kilometers. Some supply trucks stayed at the staging line to ferry supplies from Zhukov's forward HQ to subordinate HQs, and thence down to company units; but most had to make continual round trips back to the end of the rail line. The most common Soviet truck of the period could cover that 1300 to 1400 km round trip in roughly five days -- if weather conditions were good! The round trip trucks and other automobiles naturally had to be refueled several times, out and back. At first this meant, with embarrassment, that the trucks had to carry away any fuel they had just brought! (Fuel dumps no doubt had to be built, or rough pipelines and pumps rigged, though Suvorov doesn't say so.)

Nevertheless, for Zhukov's successful waging of a war unknown to the world, his logistics staff managed to gather at the staging line 25,000 tons of ammunition; 15,000 tons of fuel and lubricants; 4,000 tons of food; 7,000 tons of fuel (Suvorov might mean aircraft fuel of a different grade than other vehicles, but perhaps due to a type doesn't specify, only repeats "fuel"), and a lot of other cargo.
« Last Edit: Yesterday at 02:00:33 PM by JasonPratt »
ICEBREAKER THESIS CHRONOLOGY! -- Victor Suvorov's Stalin Grand Strategy theory, in chronological order. Lots and lots of order...

Dawn of Armageddon -- a narrative AAR for Dawn of War: Soulstorm: Ultimate Apocalypse: The Hunt Begins: Insert Joke Here!

Survive Harder! In the grim darkness of the bowl there is only, um, Amazons. And tentacles and midgets. Not remotely what you're thinking! ...okay, maybe a little remotely.

PanzOrc Corpz Generals -- Season One complete; Fantasy Wars AAR, lots of screenies.

Offline JasonPratt

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Re: IceBreakChron IV: IGNITING THE WAR
« Reply #20 on: Yesterday at 02:04:55 PM »
By August 23, the fourth day of the attack, the strategic circle drawn around Japanese troops tightens, and their rout begins (for example see the "Soviet Military Encyclopedia", Vol.8, p.353).

During the 30s, Stalin had ordered military maneuvers repeatedly staged on a massive scale. Each one (per Suvorov) drilled one theme: "operations in depth", which meant sudden crushing air strikes against enemy air bases, followed by airborne troops capturing the bases on the ground and airmobile troops landing behind them, flying ahead of an equally sudden assault by tanks in vast numbers deep into enemy territory.

Nazi high command does not even have the experience of practice in such large-scale maneuvers yet; they are currently planning the first of such training exercises to be sometime in the fall of 1939! (per Muller-Hillebrand's "Germany's Ground Forces 1933-1945", 2002, Vol.1, p.157.) When Hitler invades Poland upon Stalin's invitation for a combined assault (preliminaries for which are being offered today), the training exercises will never be conducted.

Zhukov's blitzkrieg into China was not invented on a spur of the moment: Soviet forces had been training such assaults for a decade already. Mongolia provided a much-needed live fire application of the theories, against enemies seriously shooting back -- and prepared to counter-attack. Zhukov's force isn't overwhelmingly strong enough to deal with other Japanese armies rushing to rescue the crumbling 6th Army, so he withdraws, keeping some gained territory which the Japanese don't care enough about regaining themselves. Zhukov's attack is operationally pointless -- except to practice blitzkrieg tactics in actual combat. It does however achieve one strategic objective, perhaps incidentally: the Japanese general headquarters decides going forward to concentrate their aggression elsewhere for a while -- against British and American colonies and bases, on the Asian mainland and at sea.

During the Mongolian operation, BT ('speed tank') units run into many problems with their suspensions on the rough terrain and poor roads. Worse, the tracks keep coming off by accident, too! That's because these tanks have been designed with overpowered engines, and with tracks expected (in training and doctrinal manuals) to be shed quickly, like a parachute once the tank has reached its operational area. The remaining wheels are often useless on the poor roads, much less the rough terrain; they are designed for superhighway quality roads (by the standard of this time period). Still, adjustments start to be made, even out in the field this far! -- with test results to be discussed soon.
ICEBREAKER THESIS CHRONOLOGY! -- Victor Suvorov's Stalin Grand Strategy theory, in chronological order. Lots and lots of order...

Dawn of Armageddon -- a narrative AAR for Dawn of War: Soulstorm: Ultimate Apocalypse: The Hunt Begins: Insert Joke Here!

Survive Harder! In the grim darkness of the bowl there is only, um, Amazons. And tentacles and midgets. Not remotely what you're thinking! ...okay, maybe a little remotely.

PanzOrc Corpz Generals -- Season One complete; Fantasy Wars AAR, lots of screenies.

Offline JasonPratt

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Re: IceBreakChron IV: IGNITING THE WAR
« Reply #21 on: Yesterday at 02:31:08 PM »
August 20, 1939: five Soviet I-16 fighters become the world's first to use rockets (air-to-air RS-82 rocket missiles with remote detonators) as weapons, as the Su-2 and its family have been designed to do. They are, of course, nearly useless except in ground attack; but they can be of some use against level bombers. (Suvorov is unclear how they are being used other than in the Mongolian war. His source, Maslov's "Fighter I-16", pp.19-20, may have more details.)

The greatest Soviet air achievement before and during the war, however, is not a fighter, but the epic IL-2! In development at this time, this ground-attack flying tank would carry 8 such rockets along with its normal combat load, and would be the world's only plane during the war with an armor-plated airframe. To be more specific, its crew cabin, engine, and fuel tanks are all covered with armor, and indeed the main fuselage itself is one complex armor casing, up to 12mm thick, assembled from over twenty double-curved pieces. Only the wings, the tail part of the fusilage, and the tail unit itself are left unshielded. Even the canopy was 63mm armored glass! -- bullets fired from even close range only left insignificant scratches! Aside from its rockets, and/or a bomb load 400 to 600 kilograms, it also mounted two 23mm automatic cannons shooting at 500 rounds per minute, and two of the world-record fire-rate machine guns which Soviet designers could include for any aircraft (even dating back several years).

The designer Illyushin planned to include a rear-set .50 caliber gunner, as in the famous Stuka. Stalin personally called him (Suvorov unsourced) and told him to remove the rear-gunner from the design. Why? -- because it would not be needed: Stalin fully expected the IL-2 would never be attacked by German fighters. Stalin directed the weight savings to be redeemed in enlarging the fuel tank and the bomb load.

The IL-2, however, is not the Su-2 and its family: changes of this sort cannot be simply made to its design. The entire technology for producing the armored fuselage will have to be replaced, delaying the start of mass production. By June 21, 1941, only 249 will be produced.
ICEBREAKER THESIS CHRONOLOGY! -- Victor Suvorov's Stalin Grand Strategy theory, in chronological order. Lots and lots of order...

Dawn of Armageddon -- a narrative AAR for Dawn of War: Soulstorm: Ultimate Apocalypse: The Hunt Begins: Insert Joke Here!

Survive Harder! In the grim darkness of the bowl there is only, um, Amazons. And tentacles and midgets. Not remotely what you're thinking! ...okay, maybe a little remotely.

PanzOrc Corpz Generals -- Season One complete; Fantasy Wars AAR, lots of screenies.

Offline JasonPratt

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Re: IceBreakChron IV: IGNITING THE WAR
« Reply #22 on: Today at 07:03:39 AM »
August 22, 1939: from 1932 to 1937, Germany created world-class defensive fortified sectors between the Oder and Warta rivers, similar in quality to the Stalin Line, but naturally much less extensive (for covering smaller areas and having fewer resources to use on the project). Once the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact is signed and the Nazis start heading east, work will stop on the Oder Line, and the magnificent fortifications are stripped progressively of their personnel and material, never again to be manned by troops. Some are used to house vegetables, others are used for factory purposes (such as the amazing Hochwald area fortifications, two four-story combat structures linked by a 19-mile tunnel, which became an aircraft factory.)

Today, the day before the Pact is made, German General Guderian is ordered to command the "Pomerania Fortifications Headquarters". His goal is to reassure the Poles with purely defensive preparations; specifically by building rather light fortifications created off to the side of his expected line of invasion into Poland. Germany will invade in about a week. (Or actually sooner! -- Hitler will take a jump on the planned Molotov timetable and try to invade the day after the Pact is signed, so that he might not need to share Poland with Stalin after all.)

From Zinoviev's collected works (date unreported, citation not specific), "If Russia makes peace, this peace will only be temporary. The Socialist Revolution in Russia will only win when it is surrounded by a ring of sister Socialist republics. A peace made with imperialist Germany would only be an episodic phenomenon. It will provide a short break, after which war will boil once again."
ICEBREAKER THESIS CHRONOLOGY! -- Victor Suvorov's Stalin Grand Strategy theory, in chronological order. Lots and lots of order...

Dawn of Armageddon -- a narrative AAR for Dawn of War: Soulstorm: Ultimate Apocalypse: The Hunt Begins: Insert Joke Here!

Survive Harder! In the grim darkness of the bowl there is only, um, Amazons. And tentacles and midgets. Not remotely what you're thinking! ...okay, maybe a little remotely.

PanzOrc Corpz Generals -- Season One complete; Fantasy Wars AAR, lots of screenies.