Author Topic: 你好!我十月搬台灣住。  (Read 10582 times)

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Offline MarkShot

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Re: 你好!我十月搬台灣住。
« Reply #30 on: May 09, 2012, 08:36:26 AM »
Hey, MarkShot. Sounds like you're having quite the fulfilling adventure.  ;D

You may infer that I wasn't doing that well with real stock trading ... otherwise, I would still be doing it.

Offline Bison

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Re: 你好!我十月搬台灣住。
« Reply #31 on: May 09, 2012, 08:39:16 AM »
Watching the stock market can be stressful some days.  I'm up!  I'm down!  I'm up!  I'm down! I'm...ah, the closing bell.

I'm a barely able to talk in english some days.   

Offline MarkShot

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Re: 你好!我十月搬台灣住。
« Reply #32 on: May 09, 2012, 08:46:42 AM »
He he he ... if you're short or have puts, then YOU can be up when things are down.  Or you can buy the VIX and if the market moves through huge swings you can gain.

Like the pedagogical analysis of wars and history, the day's trading activity always makes sense after the close.  The challenge is to know what is going on when you are mired in up ticks and down ticks.

Although I wouldn't advise trading with CNBC's Cramer (Mad Money) one his best lines from 2011 went something like:  "When you buy stock, you must have conviction.  But how will you test your convictions?  No need to worry about that, the market will do that for you."

Offline Bison

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Re: 你好!我十月搬台灣住。
« Reply #33 on: May 09, 2012, 08:49:57 AM »
Reminds me when I bought a car and the salesman said, and I quote, "Payments are a state of mind."

Offline MarkShot

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Re: 你好!我十月搬台灣住。
« Reply #34 on: May 09, 2012, 09:11:17 AM »
Actually, if you are a gamer who loves spreadsheet games, then stock trading could potentially be a lot of fun.

Imagine the most data overwhelming game you have ever played ... then think of trading as game where the amount of data and analysis (paid and unpaid) is totally unbounded.

So, a gamer needs to spend time identifying the most important factors to look at.  So, does a trader.  That's going to vary based on market conditions, sectors, particular stocks, etc...

It's a bull market and everyone is looking for those stocks with growth potential like techs.  Who cares if they ever paid a dividend or if their business models are somewhat shaky.  Oh no, the bear is on the prowl, time to look for those defensive stocks which never show much appreciation, but pay a solid dividend ... public utilities, OTC drugs, tobacco companies.  There is always a lot of money sloshing around back and forth, and it is important to know which way it is sloshing.  You can look at which stocks are under accumulation or distribution, but the mutual funds are only required to report quarterly.

Also, a gamer needs to have a strategy.  Do prefer attrition or maneuver tactics?  Traders/Investors must also have a strategy.  Are you a growth investor?  Will you buy those stocks already setting new highs, but could well go higher?  Or are you a value investor?  Are you looking for those stocks that are under valued?  Perhaps the assets the company is sitting on well exceeds the current book value?  Or are you only trading on technicals?  Perhaps, you are looking for a stock trading in a well defined channel so that you can know when to get in and out.

And then there is the fun of earning season (more or less quarterly).  I was had a position in NKE one of the biggest footwear manufacturers in the World.  However, CROX reported a few days before and disappointed the analysts.  This little company that only had a fraction of NKE's market cap sent NKE shares tumbling.  Everyone was dumping footwear shares.  Later, NKE reported and did just fine.  However, my position was already closed as I had set a STOP-LOSS order to limit my downside.

It's the ultimate game.  24 hours/day.  There is always trading somewhere and when the US markets are closed you can watch the S&P futures gyrate on news out of Asia and Europe before the opening bell.

Offline Bison

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Re: 你好!我十月搬台灣住。
« Reply #35 on: May 09, 2012, 09:30:18 AM »
That does not sound heart healthy.  I've got my investments going, but I've never be into following the market day to day let alone hour to hour.   

Offline Greybriar

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Re: 你好!我十月搬台灣住。
« Reply #36 on: May 09, 2012, 09:56:00 AM »
It's good to see you posting once again, Mark.
Regardless of how good a PC game may be it will always have its detractors and no matter how bad a PC game may be it will always have its fans.

Offline MarkShot

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Re: 你好!我十月搬台灣住。
« Reply #37 on: May 11, 2012, 09:37:06 AM »
According to my wife, this was all one single bad trade:

Quote
NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- JPMorgan Chase, in a surprise announcement, said Thursday that it has suffered trading losses of $2 billion since the start of April.

He he he ... I guess I shouldn't feel too bad about my own poor performance.

Another big difference I found between war gaming and trading is that are so many different time frames you can be operating on.  You can sell something just because the market is surging with good news.  Or you can buy options which expire so you have to be pretty confident about the time frame in which believe something will happen.  Or you can hold something as it sinks believing in the more strategic vision.  When we play games, the time frame for a given game tends to be fairly tight.  So, it is not often that "losing now" doesn't also imply "losing later".  However, with trading, winning and losing can also very much be tied up with the time frame for which you define your strategy.

Then, a very big challenge was the idea of cutting your losses.  Do you stay with a failing attack or do you withdraw?  The attack might be failing, but if you hang in long enough will the momentum reverse and will it turn into a route?  Or will you p*ss away your company and tanks?  This was a big philosophical debate I had with my wife on STOP-LOSS orders.  These are orders you put in to close out a position when a loss reaches a certain point (I was using about -7% from the entry).  Traders say, "you need to let the winners run and cut your losers off quickly".  Now, that makes perfect sense.  By following such a strategy, you can actually have a positive P&L even though you lose more often than you win.  But the problem is that the market is volatile and huge swings happen quite frequently (much more now due to high speed program trading).  So, using STOP-LOSS although seemingly protective, means you simply get stopped out on wild days ...  It would be the equivalence of prematurely withdrawing out a fight before the battle turns for you, because you simply said after 15% WIA/KIA, I am packing it in.

Of course, once you are in a losing position, like engaging in a battle, your options have become limited.  Now, if you are fully engaged.  There is no way to disengage, and therefore, there is no way to exploit an opportunity which opens.  Similarly, as you sit with losing or stagnating positions, you are missing the chance to be in something else.

So, there were definitely similarities to war gaming and trading at the macro level.  Also, war gaming against real players is very much about psychology.  If you are a technical trader, then much of it is about investor psychology.  A common trading tool is Japanese Candlestick charting.  This tool's main premise is to graphically depict the battle between the Bulls and Bears.  By looking at a price chart, you can see where the bears gained strength, met resistance, finally broke, and the indication that they are throwing in the towel (covering their shorts aka a "short squeeze").  Upon looking at such a pattern, you know the next session is likely to see a climb in the stock price especially if the general indexes are favorable as well.

Well, I wrote a lot ... but gaming, markets, and trading have their similarities.  It's the biggest MMPG out there.  :)

Offline MarkShot

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Re: 你好!我十月搬台灣住。
« Reply #38 on: May 11, 2012, 10:00:25 AM »
BTW, if anyone is interested, there are ways to play this game simply for fun.

In years past, people used to use spreadsheets to do paper trades.  But that is very labor intensive and does not give the real feel.

There are also Web sites to which you can subscribe which will allow you do have a paper portfolio.  Although far better than a spreadsheet, compared to a real brokerage account its the difference between playing a flight sim with abstracted and simplified tools or getting in a real cockpit.  So, I would not recommend this either.

With TDAmeritrade, you can open a trading account.  Without funding it, you will get access to a paper money account which models trading/markets/tools on various integrated PC (JAVA) trading platforms and mobile devices.  At which point, you can play with the real market and real tools.  However, I would recommend that you fund your account (put some real cash in; they say as little a $1 will do it).  Once you do that, you request "realtime quotes".  This means that the prices you see in paper trading correctly mirrors those from the exchanges.  Otherwise, your quotes are 20 minutes delayed.  If you really want to play with paper money (even if you are not day trading), you should use real time data.  Why?  Well, most of the day's volume happens in the first 30 minutes and last 30 minutes of the sessions.  You are not really going to experience all of that with delayed quotes.  With a few simple exceptions, your paper trading is as real as it can be ... closer than any flight simulator.  (One of these exceptions would be you couldn't exercise an option before expiration, but, of course, you could trade it.)

Offline MarkShot

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Re: 你好!我十月搬台灣住。
« Reply #39 on: May 11, 2012, 10:05:17 AM »
Lastly, you should remember that the feel between paper trading and real money trading is very different.  Similar to playing an FPS or really having live rounds being shot at you by some jihadist.

Offline MarkShot

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Re: 你好!我十月搬台灣住。
« Reply #40 on: May 12, 2012, 05:52:56 PM »
He he he ... I can see that you guys are just as interested by real trading as my two 1830-PC threads at the WG!  :)

Offline Bison

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Re: 你好!我十月搬台灣住。
« Reply #41 on: May 12, 2012, 07:44:27 PM »
Not at all Mark.  It's interesting and you always bring a unique perspective to your endeveurs.

Offline MetalDog

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Re: 你好!我十月搬台灣住。
« Reply #42 on: May 12, 2012, 08:02:31 PM »
He he he ... I can see that you guys are just as interested by real trading as my two 1830-PC threads at the WG!  :)

One of the posters I NEVER miss.  Been thinking about getting into the market once I clear the debt off my books.  Nothing big, but something to play with.  Looking mostly for stocks that pay dividends and have consistent value.  I also wanted to try and stay focussed on a small area of stocks before diving into the big pool.
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Offline son_of_montfort

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Re: 你好!我十月搬台灣住。
« Reply #43 on: May 12, 2012, 09:47:31 PM »
I'm sort of surprised that you didn't make out big Mark. I always assumed that, if you put your effort into the market, you would walk away the next Warren Buffet. But I suppose the market is far less rational than it should be. Your insights are highly educational!
"Now it is no accident all these conservatives are using time travel to teach our kids. It is the best way to fight back against the liberal version of history, or as it is sometimes known... history."

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Offline Mr. Bigglesworth

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Re: 你好!我十月搬台灣住。
« Reply #44 on: May 13, 2012, 01:46:26 AM »
Or maybe its rational enough the the computers are beating everyone.


Glad to see your posts markshot!
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