Russia's War Against Ukraine

Started by ArizonaTank, November 26, 2021, 04:54:38 PM

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GDS_Starfury

do I think the russians are learning, yes.
the issue is that the people learning are getting killed and cant pass on any knowledge to the next wave.
I thinking the Ukranians are learning faster and rotating enough people to pass the experience forward.
this is russia without lend lease and with a shit population base and society.
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Crossroads

Quote from: Gusington on January 27, 2023, 11:36:08 PMApropos of nothing, it looks like Turkey (and Erdogan in particular) is continuing to be a thorn in the side of the West, blocking Sweden's entry into NATO and delaying Finland's entry for as long as possible :/

Erdogan being Erdogan. Finland and Sweden applied to NATO together and will walk the process in lockstep.

Ergodan's made a mess of their economy, among other things, and given his opposition called him "weak" towards Finland and Sweden, the latter in particular due to the large Kurdish refugee population there, Erdogan is putting his best strongman play to appeal to his voters.

There's a consensus nothing will happen before the election. After that, if he's still delaying at the July NATO meeting then there's a real issue at play. He's got many grievances, many of his own making.

As for Hungary, Orban's happy to offer his support to his kin autocrat-at-making. So we'll see.
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MengJiao

Quote from: FarAway Sooner on January 27, 2023, 11:01:14 PMI doubt many of us knew much about the state of readiness of the Ukrainian armed forces 12 months ago, and while we all knew that the Russian army had problems, I'm not sure that any of us imagined how thoroughly dysfunctional the entire command structure would prove itself when finally tested.

Fast-forward today, and I'm a bit more concerned.  The longer this war goes on, the more likely it is that the Russians will figure out how to fight a war.  The Russian definition of "winning" never involved taking fewer casualties; it just involved crushing the enemy's will to fight and occupying their land.

I'm leery of overestimating the Russian leadership again soon.  The notion that the Russians were some sort of murderous Keystone Kops is supported by what we saw in the first part of the fighting, and it's certainly a conceit that plays to Western vanities.  But if we want to go into this open-eyed, it might be worth at least entertaining a few competing narratives.

I'm not saying that the Russians are winning or that they will win.  I just haven't yet seen signs of an imminent Russian collapse.

Well, I'm usually wrong but
Unfortunately, I think some sort of significant "Russian Collapse" is really the best chance the Ukrainians have (paradoxically in the short term).  I think if Ukraine can avoid being overrun in the next six or eight months, then they will be okay in the long term.  I know the general take on the situation is that a long-term stalemate favors the Russians, but that may well not be the case.  I think the biggest danger right now for the Ukrainians is that they will try to hold or even expand their territorial control and the Russians will exploit this by hammering away on the whole southern front, attritioning the Ukrainians across the whole spectrum and causing a Ukrainian morale collapse.  If the Ukrainians stay flexible and use deception at all levels, they have a chance at obliterating some major Russian thrust in a few months -- but, if they let themselves be hammered and/or get suckered into an attack that gets chewed up -- they may be in a bad place relatively soon.

Sir Slash

I agree with you basically Meng. Russia can afford to lose battle after battle and still not lose. However if the Ukrainians lose even one big fight they could be doomed. I'm thinking the Russkies failing at attacking everywhere a year ago, will now in the spring, go for one BIG offensive somewhere they think will be decisive. Where I don't have a clue. But even a big breakthrough into all that Ukrainian space will rapidly run out of gas and supplies though. So who knows? This maybe the longest running thread in Grogs history.
"Take a look at that". Sgt. Wilkerson-- CMBN. His last words after spotting a German tank on the other side of a hedgerow.

GDS_Starfury

lol @ big breakthrough.  I hope they do and let the Leos fight exactly in the manner in which they were designed for.  I also disagree that the russians can keep losing battle after battle.  the homefront, while forced to be supportive, isnt very happy at all.
Toonces - Don't ask me, I just close my eyes and take it.

Gus - I use sweatpants with flannel shorts to soak up my crotch sweat.

Banzai Cat - There is no "partial credit" in grammar. Like anal sex. It's either in, or it's not.

Mirth - We learned long ago that they key isn't to outrun Star, it's to outrun Gus.

Martok - I don't know if it's possible to have an "anti-boner"...but I now have one.

Gus - Celery is vile and has no reason to exist. Like underwear on Star.


GDS_Starfury

Toonces - Don't ask me, I just close my eyes and take it.

Gus - I use sweatpants with flannel shorts to soak up my crotch sweat.

Banzai Cat - There is no "partial credit" in grammar. Like anal sex. It's either in, or it's not.

Mirth - We learned long ago that they key isn't to outrun Star, it's to outrun Gus.

Martok - I don't know if it's possible to have an "anti-boner"...but I now have one.

Gus - Celery is vile and has no reason to exist. Like underwear on Star.


GDS_Starfury

how we used to deal with the russian missile threat.

Toonces - Don't ask me, I just close my eyes and take it.

Gus - I use sweatpants with flannel shorts to soak up my crotch sweat.

Banzai Cat - There is no "partial credit" in grammar. Like anal sex. It's either in, or it's not.

Mirth - We learned long ago that they key isn't to outrun Star, it's to outrun Gus.

Martok - I don't know if it's possible to have an "anti-boner"...but I now have one.

Gus - Celery is vile and has no reason to exist. Like underwear on Star.


GDS_Starfury

Toonces - Don't ask me, I just close my eyes and take it.

Gus - I use sweatpants with flannel shorts to soak up my crotch sweat.

Banzai Cat - There is no "partial credit" in grammar. Like anal sex. It's either in, or it's not.

Mirth - We learned long ago that they key isn't to outrun Star, it's to outrun Gus.

Martok - I don't know if it's possible to have an "anti-boner"...but I now have one.

Gus - Celery is vile and has no reason to exist. Like underwear on Star.


MengJiao

Quote from: GDS_Starfury on January 28, 2023, 12:31:36 PMlol @ big breakthrough.  I hope they do and let the Leos fight exactly in the manner in which they were designed for.  I also disagree that the russians can keep losing battle after battle.  the homefront, while forced to be supportive, isnt very happy at all.

  Well, that's the required set of tricks in a nutshell: a) get the Leopards and so on (some sources claim more than 300 tanks of mostly more modern types are heading for the Ukrainian army right now) BEFORE the Russians stage their biggest attacks
b) hang on until the Russians fall apart (which might take years, but the most dangerous thing coming up should be pretty soon or to put it another way -- if Ukraine survives the next 6-8 months they should be fine, stalemate or not)...but I've usually been wrong about this war from day 1 so who knows?

Sir Slash

I hear you. But if the Russkies can just pull back across the border, short of the Ukrainians invading, how can they ever win? The Russians can hang-out a while, replace their losses, and come back again and again. Star thinks the Russian people will rise-up and refuse to keep fighting but I ain't seen a lot of movement in that direction. Maybe the next guy after Putin will be better, but maybe worse. Better get a comfortable seat, this could last a while.  :m113:
"Take a look at that". Sgt. Wilkerson-- CMBN. His last words after spotting a German tank on the other side of a hedgerow.

MengJiao

Quote from: Sir Slash on January 28, 2023, 10:16:35 PMI hear you. But if the Russkies can just pull back across the border, short of the Ukrainians invading, how can they ever win? The Russians can hang-out a while, replace their losses, and come back again and again. Star thinks the Russian people will rise-up and refuse to keep fighting but I ain't seen a lot of movement in that direction. Maybe the next guy after Putin will be better, but maybe worse. Better get a comfortable seat, this could last a while.  :m113:

  The way I see it, if the Ukrainians can get over this next dangerous period, they will be able to hold their lines more or less against whatever the Russians care to go after them with.  Notice that Belarus, which supported the initial attack, is effectively neutral now.  And this is just a symptom or an indication of how things are likely to go.  Anyway, to repeat -- if the Ukrainians get through the next dangerous period, the war will enter a stalemate and Ukraine will win because the war is completely pointless and a complete waste for the Russians while it is a matter of survival for the Ukrainians.  The war is only running to keep Putin in power.  As soon as he goes one way or another, then the Russians will leave if the Russian army doesn't collapse first and by collapse, I mean essentially stop doing much, which in many ways might already be happening.  I doubt there will be anything dramatic like uprisings in Russia, just a slow erosion of any willingness to pursue the mess with or without Putin.  sure, it might take a year or two, but once the Russians see they have nothing to gain and are just wasting everything for nothing, they will figure out some way to stop.  There will be some big diplomatic bunch of stuff where they try to save face and then the whole mess will slowly fade -- and the Iran-Iraq war is a good earlier example of a pointless mess that has now ceased to matter at all.

Crossroads

#5951
Well this is interesting, I had missed this at the time.

https://twitter.com/noclador/status/1619407597832118273

Here's  the map:



And here's his estimate he refers in his tweet:

QuoteThis is the maximal Russian invasion plan. Western militaries' war games showed that Ukrainian forces have only minuscule chances to defeat Russian armored forces in an open battle, as Russian air supremacy will be massive. Ukraine's chance to successfully fight Russia to standstill rests on Ukraine's ability to activate, equip and disperse Ukrainian active and reserve forces quickly and effectively before Russia invades. It rests on Ukraine dispersing and camouflaging its forces to reduce the risk of losing entire battalions to Russian artillery and rocket strikes. It's rests on Ukraine's ability to deny Russia the use of its railways. It rests one Ukraine's ability to ambush, isolate and destroy Russian units in detail. It rests on Ukraine's ability to deny Russia the crossing of the Dnieper. It rests very much on the speed, amount and type of weapons the West delivers. It rests on the ability of Ukraine's population to endure in the face of Russian bombardments and sieges. And it rest above all, as Finland showed in winter of 1940–41, on the Ukrainians ability to kill Russian soldiers: 10,000 is good; 50,000 is better; 100,000 dead Russian soldiers will bring peace.

The full article itself, from Jan 28, 2022 (!)

https://medium.com/@noclador/putins-plan-4652895de8ba
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GDS_Starfury

so......  wtf is going on in iran?  :evil:
Toonces - Don't ask me, I just close my eyes and take it.

Gus - I use sweatpants with flannel shorts to soak up my crotch sweat.

Banzai Cat - There is no "partial credit" in grammar. Like anal sex. It's either in, or it's not.

Mirth - We learned long ago that they key isn't to outrun Star, it's to outrun Gus.

Martok - I don't know if it's possible to have an "anti-boner"...but I now have one.

Gus - Celery is vile and has no reason to exist. Like underwear on Star.


JasonPratt

#5953
Re bringing 500K the first time instead of 250K: I WISH THEY HAD! They were almost completely incapable of logistically supporting 250K (including in C&C), and would have fallen apart even more quickly with 500K. (I remember being snorfed at, back last year a week or so before kickoff, when I reported shallow logistic infrastructure behind the front line: surely they couldn't have 150K troops on the front doing training exercises without logistics! Okay, in way that's true, if they focus one or two mutually supporting attacks, perhaps on Kiev, maybe that will work.... oh, huh, they knocked on all doors instead. Their logistic backfield would need to be Herculean to support that.... oh, huh, they didn't have one really.)

I hear lots of bluster about raising troop levels to a real partial mobilization this time, and (as I said several weeks ago) I hope they try! -- they still show no CCC capabilities yet, and what kit do they even have in storage to use? For all the crippling overspecialization of the pre-war Stalin era, at least they theoretically understood supply, command, control, and communications, and tried to put theory into practice with hyper-industrialization. As someone said upthread, they don't get Lend-Lease this time; nor do they get Western help in setting up ten years of hyper-industry beforehand. This of course is why the spluttering heads back safe at home keep talking about nukes: nuclear terrorism is all they really have to work with as a viable threat.

A long-term stalemate works for Ukraine because they have somewhat-helpful allies with S-class God-tier logistic capabilities. Russia is playing games with mobilization -- in itself a bad idea -- but they don't have any choice if they're going to continue, because they don't have the backfield capability to do anything better than play games with mobilization.
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ArizonaTank

Quote from: GDS_Starfury on January 28, 2023, 12:31:36 PMI also disagree that the russians can keep losing battle after battle.  the homefront, while forced to be supportive, isnt very happy at all.

I think collapse or coup are the only ways Russia stops. Sure the people aren't happy, but they are effectively suppressed. The 20th century taught us that authoritarian regimes can really let things burn to the nub before the people put a stop to a war.

No idea how close a coup is. But collapse may still be far off. Historically, mass surrender and refusal to fight are early signs, and we aren't seeing that yet.

Of course there is all sorts of stuff about how the Russians are in a bad place. But not much has really changed in the last few months. In a few miniscule spots, they have even gained ground at very heavy cost.

I would love to see them collapse tomorrow, but I just don't see it.

Now coup is another story...
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