Russia's War Against Ukraine

Started by ArizonaTank, November 26, 2021, 04:54:38 PM

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al_infierno

Ladies, come one. Let's take a breather and relax.

We all agree that Putin sucks and Ukraine should win.  Why bicker about it?
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GroggyGrognard

#4231
Jordan Peterson is completely misinformed in this video and listening to him spout his absurd nonsense about Russia being able to brush off its catastrophic economic battlefield losses as a pyrrhic victory against the Ukraine and then instantly switching topic to climate change was embarrassing to watch. For starters, Russia has already turned off most of the gas supply to EU and EU has been diversifying their energy supplies in response. However his take goes beyond being simply misinformed boilerplate to idiotic by suggesting that Russia can claim victory by destroying its infrastructure, given that Russia entered the war with the goal of consolidating its economic leverage over the EU. The current outcome of the war is that Russia's economic leverage over the EU is completely gone, multiple border states have aligned themselves with NATO and Russia's ability to defend its borders is now critically compromised. When the Ukraine defeats this new recruitment surge in a tidal wave of dead Russian recruits, the west will help them rebuild their energy and agricultural infrastructure in short order. Russia cannot win and already lost months ago. Peterson needs to stick to swindling self-help stuff and leave the geopolitical commentary to people who know something about geopolitics.


Groggy
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Jarhead0331

#4232
^Interesting optimistic conclusions, but not based in reality.

https://www.bbc.com/news/58888451

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-09-09/europe-s-challenge-to-survive-without-russian-gas-in-five-charts

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/europe-edge-nord-stream-russian-gas-link-set-planned-shut-down-2022-07-10/

The question isn't weather the EU can "survive" without Russian gas. The question is at what cost? The only possible way Russia has no economic leverage is if the EU is prepared to savage their economies and force their citizens to live without power.





Grogheads Uber Alles
Semper Grog
"No beast is more alpha than JH." Gusington, 10/23/18


Crossroads

Quote from: Jarhead0331 on September 25, 2022, 06:30:10 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on September 25, 2022, 05:58:22 PM
hmmmmm 
some points ok, most of them not so much.
I shall now commence with libtard propaganda.  :bd:

What can you add other than childish glee-filled warmongering? I mean, from a strategic perspective, what exactly is he wrong about?

Can you deny that Europe is reliant on Russian oil? No.
Can you deny that the absence of Russian fuel is going to devastate Western economies? No.
Can you deny that the risk/benefit analysis for the West weighs against starting a nuclear war? No.
Can you deny that the near total destruction of Ukraine could be one possible angle in which the Russians could claim victory? No.

What exactly do you take issue with and why does everything have to be left vs. right with you? Jordan Peterson's mind works on a much higher plane than yours (or mine), so I wouldn't cavalierly cast his thoughts aside as "propaganda". He is not a conservative, but has been compelled to align himself with them since the left has done everything to cancel him.

Some general comments. 

First he talks about totaliarism in general. On Solzhenitsyn I'd add his famous quote about Soviet Union: "We know they are lying, they know they are lying, they know we know they are lying, we know they know we know they are lying, but they are still lying." Again, such a short comment by him, I'd add the fact there's a category of truths and a category of lies in Soviet Union that still are valid today. For truth, there's the Official Truth and Kitchen Truth. You don't deny the Official Truth in public, while everyone realises of course what goes, and the actual truth is spoken within your trusted ones, or within family. At your kitchen, so Kitchen Truth. For lies there are several lies as well where Tactical Lies are one of them. You don't expect anyone to really believe them, or if they do, more fool to them.

But I digress, Russian culture of power is such an interesting topic.

As for cutting the tap for the winter, Putin's already used this weapon, and while some landlocked countries such as Hungary, Slovakia etc are more dependent on Russian oil pipelines, Europe as general is not. UK and Norway are big producers, Norway in particular also producing a lot of gas. Gas dependence is much more difficult to replace, as it is part of the infrastructure, as for instance Germany is finding out. Everyone and their dog kept telling Germany it is not a good idea to build such dependency on Russian oil, but they did not believe that in their arrogance and find themselves where they are. So not Russian oil as such would be a problem for Europe, but price of oil and fossil energy in general. Oil has gone down as recession looms so we'll see what goes.

Then, use of nukes. I don't think anyone but Putin has a say on this. In addition to energy nukes has always been his other threat. It was so when Russian military was weak after Cold War and fall of Soviet Union, and they always practice them in their large exercises. So would he use them? We don't know. Should we succumb to his black mail? If we do he's certain to use it again. Here's a thread by our leading "alt-right" politician on this:

QuoteThus, there is not much else we can do but prepare for the worst, hope for the best and keep doing what is right. Being afraid and being paralyzed by fear are two different things.

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1574064510842728448.html

Finally, as for winners and losers, he's somewhat too cynical here for my taste. Liberated Ukraine although in ruins is a victory against a dictator in my books. Russias capability to wage war and threaten its self acclaimed sphere of interest is gone war a decade at least. Ruined land can be rebuilt. I do agree that Putin could withdraw and still claim victory, but he's not doing this unless a last resort. His strategy has always been to double down and to escalate, and we're on this path again. Energy weapon used, mobilisation next. For Ukraine, and for West trying to prevent an example for future, for China vs Taiwan as well, there's really no choice but to fight or cave in.

Peace will come when Ukraine and Russia are ready for it, I'd like to believe in happy endings but likely not the case here, so some sort of compromise is likely. But who knows. Until that, stiff upper lip and all that.



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Crossroads

Quote from: Jarhead0331 on September 25, 2022, 11:57:13 PM
^Interesting optimistic conclusions, but not based in reality.

https://www.bbc.com/news/58888451

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-09-09/europe-s-challenge-to-survive-without-russian-gas-in-five-charts

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/europe-edge-nord-stream-russian-gas-link-set-planned-shut-down-2022-07-10/

The question isn't weather the EU can "survive" without Russian gas. The question is at what cost? The only possible way Russia has no economic leverage is if the EU is prepared to savage their economies and force their citizens to live without power.

It is surprisingly difficult to gain an understanding as how Europe, and each country in particular is affected by cut-off of Russian fossils.

For gas it is an easier estimate as most of it is delivered via pipelines which are difficult to replace with LNG as extensive infrastructure would be requited that for most part for e.g. Germany does not exist.

Oil, on country per country basis varies a lot. Landlocked countries are dependent on pipelines, while those with ports rely on tankers. Case in point would be Finland, where the BBC article correctly points out last year over 80% of the oil was of the cheap Russian variant. Yet, to date, all that has been replaced already.

A lot depends on how harsh the weather will be, among other things. As a conclusion, on a country per country basis, I'd say YMMV. Here's hoping for a warm and windy winter...
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GDS_Starfury

I shall now continue the childish glee-filled warmongering with a happy thought for russia:



<:-)
Toonces - Don't ask me, I just close my eyes and take it.

Gus - I use sweatpants with flannel shorts to soak up my crotch sweat.

Banzai Cat - There is no "partial credit" in grammar. Like anal sex. It's either in, or it's not.

Mirth - We learned long ago that they key isn't to outrun Star, it's to outrun Gus.

Martok - I don't know if it's possible to have an "anti-boner"...but I now have one.

Gus - Celery is vile and has no reason to exist. Like underwear on Star.


GDS_Starfury

#4236
the childish glee-filled warmongering continues.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1574128605826646016

<:-)

Toonces - Don't ask me, I just close my eyes and take it.

Gus - I use sweatpants with flannel shorts to soak up my crotch sweat.

Banzai Cat - There is no "partial credit" in grammar. Like anal sex. It's either in, or it's not.

Mirth - We learned long ago that they key isn't to outrun Star, it's to outrun Gus.

Martok - I don't know if it's possible to have an "anti-boner"...but I now have one.

Gus - Celery is vile and has no reason to exist. Like underwear on Star.


GDS_Starfury

I deeply hope this man finds the right muse to transcribe his account of this war.

Toonces - Don't ask me, I just close my eyes and take it.

Gus - I use sweatpants with flannel shorts to soak up my crotch sweat.

Banzai Cat - There is no "partial credit" in grammar. Like anal sex. It's either in, or it's not.

Mirth - We learned long ago that they key isn't to outrun Star, it's to outrun Gus.

Martok - I don't know if it's possible to have an "anti-boner"...but I now have one.

Gus - Celery is vile and has no reason to exist. Like underwear on Star.


GDS_Starfury

best Nike add ever!



<:-)

the giddy warmongering continues.
Toonces - Don't ask me, I just close my eyes and take it.

Gus - I use sweatpants with flannel shorts to soak up my crotch sweat.

Banzai Cat - There is no "partial credit" in grammar. Like anal sex. It's either in, or it's not.

Mirth - We learned long ago that they key isn't to outrun Star, it's to outrun Gus.

Martok - I don't know if it's possible to have an "anti-boner"...but I now have one.

Gus - Celery is vile and has no reason to exist. Like underwear on Star.


Jarhead0331

Grogheads Uber Alles
Semper Grog
"No beast is more alpha than JH." Gusington, 10/23/18


MengJiao

Quote from: al_infierno on September 25, 2022, 10:41:53 PM
Ladies, come one. Let's take a breather and relax.

We all agree that Putin sucks and Ukraine should win.  Why bicker about it?

  Well, I'd rather not bicker BUT the situation is so twisted that I have a hard time coming up with any constructive descriptions of the events surrounding Putin's wars...especially this last one with
Ukraine.  For example -- what exactly is Western Europe supposed to do?  While the Russian regime will negotiate about some things (grain shipments, prisoner exchange), it is impossible to
see what Western Europe can do that makes any sense other than defeating the Russian Regime as quickly and as completely as possible.  Has Putin put forward any serious points for negotiation?
No.  Would anyone be better off surrendering unconditionally? No.
  Putin has to offer something to Ukraine other than destruction.  Putin has to offer Western Europe something other than threats.

GDS_Starfury

Quote from: Jarhead0331 on September 26, 2022, 07:42:23 AM
Stop spamming the thread.

Da! Comrade.
I shall go back to data mining confirmed news and maps for the betterment of the collective.
Long live the Rodina!
Toonces - Don't ask me, I just close my eyes and take it.

Gus - I use sweatpants with flannel shorts to soak up my crotch sweat.

Banzai Cat - There is no "partial credit" in grammar. Like anal sex. It's either in, or it's not.

Mirth - We learned long ago that they key isn't to outrun Star, it's to outrun Gus.

Martok - I don't know if it's possible to have an "anti-boner"...but I now have one.

Gus - Celery is vile and has no reason to exist. Like underwear on Star.


Jarhead0331

#4242
Quote from: MengJiao on September 26, 2022, 08:00:47 AM
Quote from: al_infierno on September 25, 2022, 10:41:53 PM
Ladies, come one. Let's take a breather and relax.

We all agree that Putin sucks and Ukraine should win.  Why bicker about it?

  Well, I'd rather not bicker BUT the situation is so twisted that I have a hard time coming up with any constructive descriptions of the events surrounding Putin's wars...especially this last one with
Ukraine.  For example -- what exactly is Western Europe supposed to do?  While the Russian regime will negotiate about some things (grain shipments, prisoner exchange), it is impossible to
see what Western Europe can do that makes any sense other than defeating the Russian Regime as quickly and as completely as possible.  Has Putin put forward any serious points for negotiation?
No.  Would anyone be better off surrendering unconditionally? No.
  Putin has to offer something to Ukraine other than destruction.  Putin has to offer Western Europe something other than threats.

Nobody is suggesting Europe or Ukraine should capitulate. Nobody is suggesting that Russia shouldn't be opposed and thwarted.  The point is simply two-fold: one, a prolonged war is going to have severe consequences far beyond the borders of Ukraine and, two, Russia still possesses the ability to inflict significant economic harm on Europe at large, primarily as a result of Europe's own policies and over-reliance on Russian energy.  This is a major strategic weakness and it is foolish to think that the loss of 40% of the total energy supply is not going to have a devastating impact. Yes, there are many variables (ie. alternative sources of energy, severity of the winter, etc.), but it is not foolish to consider all possible outcomes and utilize the analysis in formulating future policy.
Grogheads Uber Alles
Semper Grog
"No beast is more alpha than JH." Gusington, 10/23/18


Pete Dero

I wonder what the result of the referendum will be ...

   

You fill in Yes for annexation at gunpoint or you vote for voluntary recruitment in the mobilization.

The transparent boxes help to assure only the 'correct' votes are counted.

JasonPratt

How awesome would it be if the vote went the other way despite all the flagrant cheating?  :dreamer:
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