Russia's War Against Ukraine

[ArizonaTank]

If history offers any lessons, this could be a long war.

In the industrial age, most major wars didn't end until one or both sides lost their political will, and/or physically could no longer continue to effectively resist (a few exceptions I think: 1866 Austro-Prussian War, and the Korean conflict). 

I certainly would love to see the Ukrainians push the Russians to the point of collapse.

But IMHO both Ukraine and Russia still have a way to go before they reach the point of political or physical exhaustion.

Real peace negotiations probably don't happen until that exhaustion is there; otherwise, peace delegates will just sit around and fight about the 'shape of the negotiating table.' 

I hope I am wrong.   

[GDS_Starfury]

how about the Ukraine takes back Crimea and lets the preexisting occupied territories fuck off.

[GDS_Starfury]

russian mine clearing operations.  great success!  :bd:

https://twitter.com/i/status/1580291630913187840

[Windigo]

how about the Ukraine takes back Crimea and lets the preexisting occupied territories fuck off.

See that's what I am thinking. Ukraine reclaims all its' territories and stops at Russian border and build defenses in depth (real depth). Then what? A troll/cyber war? Missle lobbing at each other's infrastructure? Parades of ceremonial troops marching past each other like at the Pakistan-Indian Border?

If a nation lacks the means to accomplish its goals via war, then what?

[Windigo]

russian mine clearing operations.  great success!  :bd:

https://twitter.com/i/status/1580291630913187840

what a waste... lives lost, steel production that could have been used to build tractors/housing etc..

[GDS_Starfury]

its not going to be a good winter for russia.

[FarAway Sooner]

Yeah, this really is a tragic loss of human lives and resources on all sides.  It's not a PC game for sure. 

Starfury, I get why you might view episodes like the mine explosion you posted above as a necessary step down a horrific path, but I'm not sure I understand why you seem to be taking such a gleeful tone in some of these posts.  If Putin and his cronies were getting thrown out windows, I'd be more likely to understand, but we don't know anything about the guys inside that APC.  That's not intended as an attack--I genuinely don't understand.

JH, I'm not saying the situation is the same, but this is a bit like the "Unconditional Surrender or Not?" debate that occurred among the Allies in the final 2 years of the war (obviously, the losers didn't have nukes then, but the potential loss in human life was still staggering). 

I think that insisting on Russian regime change as a precondition for ending the war is reckless, but I don't see the NATO countries doing that.  I don't even see Ukraine doing that.  So what sorts of concessions could be offered here that don't simply encourage further aggression (and more risk of nuclear war long-term)?

Ukraine foreswears participation in NATO in exchange for the return of all Ukrainian territory prior to 2014?  A Korean-style ceasefire that really never extends into full-blown piece?

I have a suspicion that outside countries would need to strip Russia of some additional privileges, which could then be offered back to them as a precondition for getting out of Kuwait Ukraine.  Perhaps we strip them of veto power and a permanent seat on the Security Council, but then offer them one or both back if they leave Ukraine?  Perhaps we negotiate some sort of end to the embargo as a precondition for the Russians satisfying certain requirements? 

A few alternatives that I shudder at, because they set the wrong incentives, but we can still consider:

1) Maybe we exclude the top ranks of Russian leadership from war crime trials but allow ourselves to charge anybody below the rank of Major General? (how do we try their leaders for war crimes without regime change?)
2) Maybe we offer some sort of monetary incentive to rebuild Russian commercial interests in Crimea?  (but how do we know those incentives don't just get repurposed to rearm the Red Army?  or do we care?)
3) Maybe we propose to let Starbucks back into Russia and guarantee 200,000 Russian tourist visas annually to Crimea?
4) Maybe we rebuild the Russians' freaking bridge?

[Jarhead0331]

its not going to be a good winter for russia.

It's not going to be a good winter for Ukraine either, and probably for a lot of people across the world due to rising energy costs and food shortages.

[JasonPratt]

how about the Ukraine takes back Crimea and lets the preexisting occupied territories fuck off.

Or a modified version of that: once the Uks retake the Crimea, and have pushed up to the Russian-population areas of the Donbas, they offer a goodwill branch along the line they always said (more-or-less, cough):

1.) We understand the Russian-majority populations may not want to be in Ukraine, with our different language and culture (and they avoid adding something derogatory about living under Russian rule, because it's time to be diplomatic). We don't want to oppress anyone, only to be free of another government's oppression. So we will not push any farther, and will draw our lines here-here-here-etc.

2.) However, we also know that those areas did cede from the collapse of the Soviet Union to join us instead of Russia, so we know some people there must want to live under our government and culture. By the same token, we acknowledge that some people under our government may wish to live under Russian government.

3.) Therefore we propose a mutual immigration treaty where each nation will allow and foster emigration from each other and immigration to each other, using national resources and the aid of any interested international parties to provide a fair exit and resettlement process for anyone who applies to move between us, this treaty being set in perpetuity. We will force no one to live in Ukraine if they wish to live in Russia, and Russia will force no one to live there who wishes to live in Ukraine, nor will either of us treat them badly for leaving, but each of us will work together to serve the wishes of our populations.

4.) Nor will we even ask for reparations from Russia for combat damage to Ukrainian people and property up to this point. We willingly paid the price to be free, and to live our lives by our own choices: we ask for nothing more than what we have secured -- our freedom.


Now admittedly, I have trouble believing Russian leadership would agree to this. But it ought to play hella well with NATO/EU nations, and with interested other-parties who would also love for Russia to stop screwing around and get back to at-least-what-passes-for-normal business in Russia. ;) In victory, magnanimity or however that's spelled.  ::)

[GDS_Starfury]

while I can come across as gleeful I'm not.  this shit needs to be beat down here and now in a definitive way.
this is the conflict that defines the next 50+ years of geopolitics.  It's the last spasm of cold war bullshit and I'm done with it.
fuck that country!

[ArizonaTank]

What do T-62s look like with new paint and maybe some bells and whistles for comfort?

We will soon know. Russia is going to working on 800 of them over the next three years.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/russia-to-modernize-800-vintage-t-62-tanks-due-to-ukraine-losses-report/ar-AA12SQPr?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=1685c28e29f849e98c8d246a2a68ba2c

The article links to a Russian article that gives a few more details. I was able to read it with MS Edge's translate feature:
https://anna-news.info/deputat-guravlev-800-tankov-t-62-popolnyat-rossijskuyu-armiyu-v-techenii-3-let/

[Gusington]

I'm at a loss to even attempt to guess how long Russia can keep the war going.

I automatically think back to the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan, Barbarossa and even the Napoleonic push to Moscow. I suppose the only one that is truly similar is Afghanistan, while in WWII and the Napoleonic Wars it was the Russians fighting an invader. On the defense we know the Russians can last virtually forever. On the offense...?

Each of the above conflicts has influenced Putin in some way and we now have to worry about how his mind, shaped by these events and so many others, embraces nuclear weapons. In February right up until the day of the invasion most of us thought that a full scale Russian attack on Ukraine was unthinkable.

Now we are saying the same about the use of nukes, the American President is warning of 'Armageddon' and the rest of us hunker down for a cold, expensive winter, at best.

In my house I digest a much more limited amount of news around my family. I started that in March 2020 with COVID and it continues now. When I'm alone, I read and watch a lot about this war and it is nerve wracking.

[Skoop]

So putin uses a tactical nuke on kherson or the donbas offensives, do we respond conventionally like Petraeus suggested or just sit on our hands and keep adding sanctions ?

I'm starting to think Biden's Armagedón comment might be a gaff, cause it's quite triggered the dooms dayers when it shouldn't have.  I guess all the nuke talk is the effect Putin wanted, everyone in the west looking over their shoulders.

[Gusington]

Can someone explain the history behind Lukashenko and his sudden obsession with Poland?

[SirAndrewD]

Can someone explain the history behind Lukashenko and his sudden obsession with Poland?

It's not sudden.

There's a significant Polish minority in Belarus and they've long been critical of Lukashenko and his dictatorship.   Poland has supported regularly movements that are opposed to Lukashenko.

They dislike sharing a border with him and there's some dispute over controlled border territories.  Lukashenko expects Russia to eventually enforce some Belorussian claims on Poland despite Poland's NATO membership in return for Lukashenko's loyalty.

With everything escalating right now, Lukashenko's just banging the anti-Poland drum because it's one he's been keen to bang before.