Russia's War Against Ukraine

[JasonPratt]

Meanwhile, Iran says in effect 'We had no idea they would use our drones that way, we promise, cross our...! wait, no, um, moon our hearts and hope to die?'

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/iran-will-not-remain-indifferent-if-proven-russia-using-its-drones-in-ukraine-official/ar-AA13k4JO?ocid=entnewsntp&pc=U531&cvid=44b10b74f21c4d9f9c9fa09290ac1fdc

Also in effect: 'If someone manages to prove that Russia is using our drones to hurt people, we vow to endeavor to persevere with our mutual defense contracts cough.' {/JoseyWalesref}

[JasonPratt]

Meanwhile, more seriously (well, even more seriously than Iran facing world backlash for helping Russia drone civilians): https://www.reuters.com/world/russia-says-its-forces-are-preparing-work-under-radioactive-contamination-2022-10-24/

Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu told Western defence ministers on Sunday that Moscow believed Ukraine was preparing to detonate such a bomb - a device using conventional explosives packed with radioactive material to spread contamination over a wide area.

The head of Russia's nuclear, biological and chemical protection troops, Lieutenant General Igor Kirillov, told a media briefing on Monday the aim of such an attack would be to blame the resulting radioactive contamination on Russia by accusing it of detonating a low-grade nuclear weapon. Ukraine wanted to paint Russia as a "nuclear terrorist", he said. "The aim of the provocation would be to accuse Russia of using a weapon of mass destruction in the Ukrainian military theatre and by that means to launch a powerful anti-Russian campaign in the world, aimed at undermining trust in Moscow." {snip} "The unfounded denials of our Western colleagues, saying all this is fiction and that Russia itself plans to do something similar in order to later blame the Zelenskiy regime - this is not a serious conversation," {Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov} told reporters after a meeting of the Valdai International Discussion Club.

'Oh no, how could they have seen through our masterful maskirovka??!'  ::) >:(

[Dammit Carl!]

Love the galaxy brain thinking there of trying to paint Ukraine as the ones who will set off a dirty bomb in their own territory and contaminating thousands upon thousands of acres of land (not to mention watered areas and the resultant leakage into the Black Sea) for an untold number of years to make the Russians "look bad."  "Look bad?"  Bitch, you people invaded a country, have caused untold casualties in the civilian areas behind the front lines with missile strikes, and rounded up and disappeared God knows how many Ukrainians, and now "looking bad," is the hang-up?

Un-fucking-real

[JasonPratt]

and while Im rooting for the Ukraine it should be remembered that they flooded all their own territory at the beginning of this mess to halt the drive on Kiev.

Not sure how many of their own civilians they killed by doing so, but that was their own defensive sacrifice.

this was also a tactic used by all sides during WW2.  I wouldnt consider this a war crime the same way I dont consider hitting infrastructure targets a war crime.  we 100% plastered Iraqi power and comms stations at the beginning of both Gulf Wars.  if anything its the only proper use of air power the soviets have displayed so far.  if this had been a NATO war, all of those targets would have been hit the first night and then repeatedly for the next 2 weeks.

All quite fair and I agree, in principle. I only meant that (on this theory) we might use such a hit as political justification for sending in the angels from above to stake out a no-action territory.

Cue the awesome meme poster from desert action in past years -- "Somewhere, a little girl is praying for God to send angels to chase away the bad men... ETA, TWO MINUTES!!"

[GDS_Starfury]

Love the galaxy brain thinking there of trying to paint Ukraine as the ones who will set off a dirty bomb

Im guessing your referring to the russians.

[JasonPratt]

^ Yes, I think the rest of his post makes that very clear by context. Who else would he be referring to? He was responding to the Reuters article I posted.

[GDS_Starfury]

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/ukraine-situation-report-russias-ka-52-attack-helicopter-fleet-has-been-massacred

[JasonPratt]

The usual strategic nuclear exercises being carried out by Russia and NATO start today, going through the end of the month (Oct 30th).

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/russia-has-notified-the-u-s-its-annual-nuclear-exercise-has-begun-u-s-officials-say/ar-AA13mGJO?ocid=entnewsntp&pc=U531&cvid=c90b53f805e5420cb0ae7c454c132b75

Assuming Putin doesn't use this as an excuse to nuke himself and/or Ukraine, and blame it on Ukraine or whatever  :P -- it will still be interesting this year to see what observers make of Russian capabilities, considering so much underlying rot has been exposed in their other capabilities!

[MengJiao]

The usual strategic nuclear exercises being carried out by Russia and NATO start today, going through the end of the month (Oct 30th).

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/russia-has-notified-the-u-s-its-annual-nuclear-exercise-has-begun-u-s-officials-say/ar-AA13mGJO?ocid=entnewsntp&pc=U531&cvid=c90b53f805e5420cb0ae7c454c132b75

Assuming Putin doesn't use this as an excuse to nuke himself and/or Ukraine, and blame it on Ukraine or whatever  :P -- it will still be interesting this year to see what observers make of Russian capabilities, considering so much underlying rot has been exposed in their other capabilities!

I think the Russian plan to drop a dirty bomb on a Ukrainian force and claim that the Ukrainians did it to make the Russians look bad is so twisted and crazed that it really is the
most likely scenario for any Russian nuclear/radioactive isotope use at the moment.  I guess that is good since its not a big nuke and
I think NATO would just go in at that point rather than let things grind on but bad
of course for whoever gets the isotopes.  I would think the Russians would drop it as far west as possible (or plausible in their version of reality)
because of the prevailing winds thing but since they would want it to look like a Ukrainian bomb they might drop it pretty far east since that's what they think
we would think the Ukrainians would do.

[JasonPratt]

The Rusks have been training overtly for exposure to fallout in the past week, which signals they think the explosion will be near their troops. But that might depend on where the training (such as it is?!) was happening -- I don't recall hearing or reading specifically where.

Of course, with Russian squirrely maskirovka strategies, they might be training one place to give a mistaken impression of planning to 'be attacked' there, when really the plan is to 'be attacked' somewhere else.

It just occurred to me that a 'dirty bomb' could be detonated without causing much actual destruction or even any direct loss of life, if the target is carefully chosen -- the fallout being the prime problem. In that sense it would be a WMD with an effect somewhere between poison and biologic.

[MengJiao]

The Rusks have been training overtly for exposure to fallout in the past week, which signals they think the explosion will be near their troops. But that might depend on where the training (such as it is?!) was happening -- I don't recall hearing or reading specifically where.

Of course, with Russian squirrely maskirovka strategies, they might be training one place to give a mistaken impression of planning to 'be attacked' there, when really the plan is to 'be attacked' somewhere else.

It just occurred to me that a 'dirty bomb' could be detonated without causing much actual destruction or even any direct loss of life, if the target is carefully chosen -- the fallout being the prime problem. In that sense it would be a WMD with an effect somewhere between poison and biologic.

    Well it seems pretty tricky to me, but maybe it seems plausible to the Russians.  I would think a workable scenario would be:
1) get your troops protected in a critical frontline area
2) set the bomb in that area
3) set a timer on the bomb
4) withdraw your troops
5) hope the Ukrainians move into the area and get hit by the isotopes
6) blame it on the Ukrainians

But I'm sure they have something much more deranged in mind and that they think it is a good idea.

[GDS_Starfury]

The Rusks have been training overtly for exposure to fallout in the past week, which signals they think the explosion will be near their troops.

the soviets are also conducting their annual nuclear drills this week including ICBM test launches.  exposure/nbc training could be connected to that.

[JasonPratt]

The Rusks have been training overtly for exposure to fallout in the past week, which signals they think the explosion will be near their troops.

the soviets are also conducting their annual nuclear drills this week including ICBM test launches.  exposure/nbc training could be connected to that.

Certainly that could be the explanation, but normal training wasn't the explanation the Russians themselves gave for their exposure training. Of course, they could give a false explanation for otherwise normally scheduled training, too!


Meanwhile, the Washington Examiner reports that Russia has started walking back its dirty bomb allegations and warnings: https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/russia-walks-back-risk-of-dirty-bomb-plot-amid-nato-warnings/ar-AA13ndvl?ocid=entnewsntp&cvid=d2418d7d12d743a797109b4d4e9660f1

"We have got what we wanted," Russian deputy ambassador Dmitry Polyanskiy told reporters at the United Nations. "If this all does not happen, I do not mind people saying that Russia is crying wolf because we are speaking about a terrible disaster that might potentially threaten the whole Earth." {snip} "There are a lot of claims that we made about things that never happened," Polyanskiy acknowledged. "But shouldn't we view it through the perspective that they never happened because we had raised those claims and Ukrainians were afraid to proceed with those provocations?"

[Jarhead0331]

From the Nov-Dec 2022 issue of Strategy and Tactics...was reading this during my morning deuce and thought to myself, "this didn't age very well at all."

[bobarossa]

I think I would have released that issue with these pages completely blank rather then be this out of touch with reality.