Consolidated Syria Conflict Thread

[mirth]

The Russians are impotent..Bluster is all they really have under the circumstances.

[Gusington]

What about their air defenses there?

[mirth]

They exist at our pleasure. The Russians can't seriously play with us and they know it.

[Gusington]

They seem to relish in the role of our foil, especially in the Mideast. And I ain't talkin' about that sweet relish on a hamburger, either.

[mirth]

I'm cool with letting them have Syria to dick around in. I'm just saying they can't go toe-to-toe with us.

[Gusington]

They don't need to. They're f*cking up everything outside of a direct conflict.

[Airborne Rifles]

Whenever I see the faces of the kids that were gassed I see my own kids' faces. Breaks my heart.

I am in no way defending the Russians or their actions, but...

Right now, they are the only ones with a realistic strategy for ending the civil war in Syria (and along with it, the refugee crisis): back Assad to the hilt, since he's the only one of the factions marginally strong enough to win with assistance. It's brutal, inhumane, but it's also the only realistic way to end this conflict any time soon.

My guess is that they are almost as pissed at him about this gas attack as we are. Think about it from their perspective: Assad is winning, with their help. They won the Siege of Aleppo, they've got the rebels on the run and fighting each other everywhere, and then Assad's goons go and do this? Bring the Americans in against Assad with a vengeance? I'm not surprised they're trying to cover up the evidence (not justifying it all all, but no surprised either). They were on the verge of wrapping this thing up in their favor.

[Staggerwing]

How sure are we that Assad is actually still calling the shots? He could just be a figurehead by now, useful for focusing all the world's ire but disposable in the end, while some shadowy Iranian-backed Alawite players are moving the chess pieces. Maybe their Iranian benefactors have something to gain by making Russia look complicit in Assad's war crimes, linking the two and leaving Iran as the last man standing when Assad is forced from power..

[JasonPratt]

Well, that does bring up the question of whether Assad's forces really did the gassing? I mean, is he taking credit for it? Other than being a despotic murderer, what was his goal here?

[Gusington]

There's a lot of speculation that Assad and/or the Russians did not do it. To what end...who knows.

CNN reporting this morning that a Russian missle armed frigate is moving in to the Mediterranean as a show of force. CNN also reporting that Russian planes may have been destroyed in the latest bombardment.

[Staggerwing]

CNN also reporting that Russian planes may have been destroyed in the latest bombardment.

Latest bombardment? You mean the new air attack back at the town hit by Sarin?

[Gusington]

No, our (US) missile attack. Some Russian equipment and planes may have also been destroyed. Not sure if they were targeted directly.

[bayonetbrant]

There's a lot of speculation that Assad and/or the Russians did not do it. To what end...who knows.

Speculation by who?  RT?  The same people that don't think the Russians shot down MH17?

CNN reporting this morning that a Russian missle armed frigate is moving in to the Mediterranean as a show of force. CNN also reporting that Russian planes may have been destroyed in the latest bombardment.

That Russian frigate was on maneuvers w/ the Turks right before this happened and was already planned to head into the Med.  Whether or not the exact sked/route was changed is unknown, but it was already in the area.

[Gusington]

Speculation from talking heads on CNN and online. When you stop to think about it, it kind of makes sense too. Assad and the Russians pretty much had the war going their way. The White House even begrudingly accepted that Assad would remain the Syrian leader, publicly. So then the Syrians/Russiana launch a chemical attack? Makes no sense.

[Staggerwing]

The chem attack did occur while Syrian or Russian aircraft were bombing the town and considering that the nerve agents usually require mixing just before using it would be quite coincidental if someone else knew exactly where to pre-place a stockpile of just-mixed Sarin or the like.

If the gas attack wasn't planned by elements within the Assad gov't for their own reasons then the next likely reason is that some lower echelon commander ordered it because he was under extreme pressure to shore up his area of responsibility and decided to use any means available to preserve his own neck.