Russia's War Against Ukraine

[ArizonaTank]

I admire your ability to find the silver lining in any military development, SirSlash!

I too am intrigued by this operation.  I'm not sure if it's a PR stunt, or if it has practical military value at the operational level.  I assume that Kursk is a major logistics hub for the Russians, but I can't believe that the Ukrainians really have the spare military assets available to take that.

Perhaps the goal is simply to get close enough to shell the rail yards and other transportation infrastructure out of existence and then retreat?  That would have PR and military value, without imposing the drain on manpower that General Ryan discusses in his article.

I don't have any sense for how long it takes the Russians to repair damaged rail infrastructure, but I have to assume they've had lots of practice at it by now.  Maybe they just want the Russians to have to lay down prodigious minefields in their own territory and then spend the next twenty years cleaning that up?

I think it is kind of like Jubal Early's raid on Washington D.C. in July, 1864. The Union had put most of its effort and troops with Grant's Overland Campaign, and left DC, relatively undefended. The Confederates sent a raiding force out of the Shenandoah Valley to divert Union attention.

In the end, Early was stopped at the gates of Washington. There was no way that Early's 10,000+ troops could have done anything more than some light looting and burning, but it shook up Northern public opinion quite a bit . Grant also had to redirect troops back to the defense of Washington.

I think this modern day effort in Kursk is similar to Early's raid. A distraction that Putin can't ignore. Also, after months of sour news, this has to be a boost to Ukrainian national morale.

Fun fact from Early's Washington Raid: Abraham Lincoln is the only sitting US President to come under direct enemy fire. He stood on a parapet observing a Confederate assault on Ft. Stevens, about 7 miles north of the US Capitol building. Bullets whizzed all around Lincoln, until he was brusquely pushed into cover by a junior Union officer.

[nelmsm]

Saw somewhere that the Ukranians have captured the big pumping station sending natural gas to the rest of Europe.  Think that would hurt the economy of Russia a bit if that got destroyed?  I think this gives some good PR to Ukraine and some bad PR to Putin, especially domestically.  As one commentator on YouTube was saying he needs to win to keep himself in charge and until it gets to be more secure to end the war rather then win it he'll keep on bleeding Russia of young men.  I also heard that these are veteran troops on the attack and I think they are looking to get the Russians in the open where they can do some serious damage, first against the conscripts, and then against the troops Russia will rush in and go on the attack with to try and throw them out.  Wouldn't be surpised to see the Ukranian F-16's make their combat debut here either.

[JasonPratt]

Convoys being rushed down out of Kursk to meet the invasion are being droned into blazing piles; but my favorite part of this is NEXTPRO (think I spelled that right) reporting that a pro-Russian Russian reporter was inadvertently giving away the position and timing of a convoy leaving Kursk's city limits (on an overpass with a big WELCOME TO KURSK sign in Russian in the roundabout below it), while trying to drum up some positive propaganda -- basically showing off the awesome heavy equipment in that convoy, top notch stuff!

We'll see how long that convoy lasts. So far it's been troop convoys (in sad little minivans because Russia mostly doesn't have troop carriers anymore) -- a convoy of tanks and heavy mobile arty (and Lord looked like some KV-2s??! the big siege tracked guns??) would be a serious propaganda and military target to show off.

[Sir Slash]

I'm thinking like Arizona Tank's Jubal Early Raid, the Russkies, like Grant, have plenty of troops to contain the raid/incursion and still not need to let-up on the pressure on other fronts. Still, maybe this is just a diversion so the Elite Ukranian Beaver Corp can be unleashed.

[JasonPratt]

My guess is that Ukraine is looking for several kinds of operational win here, including drawing out relatively high-value reserves into the line of fire while in convoy to meet their advance (which is working according to plan if so). Messing with Gazprom (ditto). Making the whole rotten house collapse by kicking in the door (well, we'll see, Hitler's gamble failed from underestimating what Stalin had to keep the house standing). What I hope doesn't happen is galvanizing the Russian population into cooperating better with the war effort voluntarily, to respond to an actual invasion.

[Pete Dero]

At last, a Russian city we can pronounce. And the spelling hasn't been changed since 1945.

Do you mean Koersk  ?

[JudgeDredd]

Create dilemmas, not problems for your adversery.

Where did I hear that? 

[Crossroads]

Day five of this operation is winding down at our time zones, yet we're still in the dark about the key details: what units are deployed, their strength, locations, and objectives. Our intel is mostly coming from Russian milbloggers. Hardly the most reliable source. But it is what it is.

How's that for OPSEC?

[JasonPratt]

When the Orc Milbloggers are de-Sec-ing their own Ops, then I'm 

Meanwhile, Ukraine has now started a push toward Belgorod, rather northwest of the front established by Russia above Kharkiv (or Charkib if you prefer  ), which I have now repaired my failing neuron connection about. That might be a trilemma! -- do you detour reaction forces from the Kursk advance to protect the flank of Belgorod? Do you release forces from the interior to protect the flank of your stalled drive on Kharkiv? Do you withdraw from the front north of Kharkiv to Belgorod and prepare to receive boarders? Decisions decisions! 

[Gusington]

Any legit articles out there from good sources on how this Ukrainian counter invasion is being viewed in Russia? Do Russians at home even know about it?

[Uberhaus]

The Russians know about it.  Russian evacuees have arrived in Moscow.  https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cr7rn98l8kjo

Some residents of the Kursk region were evacuated by authorities, with a group pulling into Moscow's central train station on Friday. One unnamed resident told AFP news agency: "It's terrible. They are bombing."
Russia's defence ministry said more troops with heavy armoury were being deployed in the Kursk region.
A counter-terrorist operation has been declared there, as well as in the neighbouring Belgorod and Bryansk regions - a move that underlines how grave the current situation is.
The local authorities now have powers to restrict the movement of people and vehicles, allow the use of phone taps and impose temporary evacuations.

[JudgeDredd]

70+k have been evacuated from the region so far.

The Russians will probs nuke it...by accident even

[Uberhaus]

70+k have been evacuated from the region so far.

The Russians will probs nuke it...by accident even

The Russians will go through the regular motions first, badly coordinated combined arms attacks, when that fails, then massive application of artillery.  There will be nuclear threats against the West and Ukraine, but it would be very politically dangerous for a Russian politician to threaten an attack on their home soil. 
This is very bad for Putin who is downplaying the attack, refusing to declare war and labelling it a terrorist clearing operation.  https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c0qedq0penko 

The authorities now have powers to enter private homes, restrict the movement of traffic and pedestrians, order the temporary relocation of people and monitor information sent electronically.

These actions will be great for controlling their own population, controlling the narrative.  They won't do much to hinder the Ukrainians.

[JasonPratt]

"accidentally".

They might nuke some place in Ukraine that they're willing to give up controlling, just to force a withdrawal.

[FarAway Sooner]

I'm still curious to see the military value of this, unless it succeeds in pulling Russian troops away from their current offensive.  It's been a successful PR counterstroke, and if they plan to hold on to the territory, it might prove valuable in negotiations after the next US Presidential election (as was mentioned above), but both of those are much more political than they are military.

That doesn't mean that they're wrong, but I'm curious to know (and will never learn) what the opportunity cost of this operation has been.  We might know in 10 or 50 years...