Venezuela on the brink

[steve58]

Maduro has declared victory for a third term, but the opposition ain't buying it.  Protests are breaking out. 

There are reports of police and military units ignoring government orders and some even joining the anti-Maduro protests.
 

[Uberhaus]

Hopefully, the police, military and paramilitaries will defect in sufficient numbers; but respectfully, the open sources I am reading are saying that they are standing fast with Maduro.  https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/venezuela-ruling-party-opposition-rally-supporters-election-dispute-2024-07-30/  https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c9r3v67w095o 

I won't be surprised if as well as continuing a crackdown with arrests, that they open fire on protestors.  The country has a history of extra-judicial killings and they will be fearful of what change means to their lives after repressing the  population for twenty-five years.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-44575599  From 2018: 

Last year dozens of protesters were killed in clashes during protests against hyperinflation and food shortages.
...
The UN Human Rights Office alleges that extra-judicial killings were carried out by officers involved with the Operations for the Liberation of the People, ostensibly a crime-reduction initiative.
These officers may have killed more than 500 people since July 2015 as a way to showcase crime-reduction results, it says. They are alleged to have faked evidence to make it look as though the victims died in exchanges of fire.

This is something that the protestors need to be aware may happen, and foreign governments need to persuade the ruling government that it won't be accepted. 

RUSI also has a good article on what a continuing Maduro government will mean for the West, with it leaning heavily towards authoritarian Russia, China and Iran. https://rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/venezuelas-bolivarian-nightmare-continues-what-does-it-mean-west

Maduro will keep steering the ministry of foreign affairs and Venezuela's armed forces with the aim of expanding military-to-military links with China, Russia and Iran through combined exercises, officer exchanges, military acquisitions, and technology transfers.

National security concerns will dictate a careful manoeuvring of the authoritarian foundations in the military. Loyalist generals have been installed in public office by Maduro and remain one of the main backers of the regime. Moving forward, the defence alliance with Moscow, Tehran and Beijing will likely continue mostly through political dialogues and small-scale military-to-military exchanges. With its current adverse economic scenario, Venezuela is unlikely to see a near-term purchase of Russian, Iranian or Chinese-made military heavy equipment. Instead, Maduro will be keen to have access to drones, cyber technologies and cheap ISR systems that can be used to control the country's porous borders while also intimidating neighbours.

[W8taminute]

This is a tragedy. 

[Uberhaus]

Good article on foreign interference from the CBC written by Evan Dyer, Gwynne Dyer's son.  Maduro is using Cubans to stiffen his military's resolve and at least one Wagner mercenary has been spotted, with the Chinese forging the election results
 https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/maduro-venezuela-cuba-urrutia-1.7284279

Venezuelans have also been posting videos of uniformed foreigners on the streets of Caracas, including Cubans and a soldier wearing the insignia of the Wagner Group, a notorious mercenary group linked to the Kremlin that has played a major role in wars in Ukraine and various parts of Africa.

Maduro's opposition has called for the Venezuelan people to protest today against the stolen election.

[Redwolf]

I definitely need a Wagner outfit and show up at random places around the world.