Russia's War Against Ukraine

[JasonPratt]

By the way, remember those huge glide bombs (that Russia also keeps dropping a fraction of on their own territory and cities by accident)?

They guide their glide by satellite signal. "Verrrrrry Niiiiice!" {/wendysmeme}

...so Ukraine just knocked out one of their four sat com stations. 25% of Russian operative satellite capacity is gone (unless they farm it out to someone else perhaps). This has some interesting cascade effects down the line, but what I immediately thought was, opps, more glide munitions landing on Russia by accident than before! 

I anticipate a Darth Putin comment on this turn of events.

[ArizonaTank]

Interesting discussion of Russian "turtle tanks."

Not as dumb as we may think, but not really smart either.

[JudgeDredd]

A very interesting discussion on the introduction of the next "super weapon" - the F16

Not so much a super weapon as a quadruple "very useful" platform. Not a game changer, but a welcome assist.

[JudgeDredd]

Interesting view on "game changer" western tanks.

[FarAway Sooner]

Summary:  The weapons systems didn't quite live up to the hype, but do they ever?  Really?

The most-praised weapons system of the war has been the HIMARS.  It does deserve recognition, because it arrived on the battlefield at a time that Ukraine could really use a longer-range artillery system to strike Russian logistical hubs.  And it also arrived at a time where Ukrainians achieved one of their largest victories of what has otherwise been a major war of attrition.

While the HIMARS continues to be useful, it's worth noting that not even the HIMARS changed the game.

A more useful nominee for "game changer of the war" would be the simple recce drone, but that's not nearly as sexy and doesn't feature cool traits like "muzzle velocity", "armor composition", or "warhead type".  As is usual, separating hype from fact can be hard in times of war.

[Crossroads]

Bellingham confirms Russian cruise missiles hitting the children's hospital.

https://x.com/bellingcat/status/1810692857415573668

Thread reader app: https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1810692857415573668.html

[JasonPratt]

Welp, Pres/dictator Lukashenko nopes out of the Ukraine invasion today (or last night)! All Belo troops will withdraw from the border and refuse to escalate activities against the Uks, allowing Ukraine to shift troops around early before NATO forces arrive in the region to take up stances (if I understand the plans correctly).

How this combines with the previous announcement that Russia has violated non-proliferation treaties by giving Belo (tactical) nukes, I shall leave for discussion. 

Untranslated video of the press conference via NOELREPORTS:

https://x.com/NOELreports/status/1812164145044717786

Hat-tip, the Enforcer.

[ArizonaTank]

Welp, Pres/dictator Lukashenko nopes out of the Ukraine invasion today (or last night)! All Belo troops will withdraw from the border and refuse to escalate activities against the Uks, allowing Ukraine to shift troops around early before NATO forces arrive in the region to take up stances (if I understand the plans correctly).

Wow, if Lukashenko really follows through with this...he will have to be careful around open windows....

[Sir Slash]

My thoughts exactly. I wouldn't want to be his Food-Taster. 

[JasonPratt]

Belo: I can haz nukes?
Russia: OK fine here.
Belo: kthxbi!

Depending on how much competent-control Belorussia has over those things (and how well they can secure them), Luka may have just secured Belo's future free from Russia deciding to window the whole country if Luka doesn't play along like a good puppet. (Keeping Ukraine in mind as a recent example.)

I know that's one current theory, but it may also just be a side-effect of Luka sensing the tide finally shifting decisively against Russia's invasion and trying to make nice before NATO rolls into his op area. Maybe he remembers what happened the last time France approached far-western Russia: he'd be the first thing in the way to secure any further movements east. 

[Gusington]

^IF that is really what happened, Lukashenko is a genius that we have never really given enough credit to.

[Crossroads]

Lawrence Freedman on Russian attacks on civil infrastructure

Lashing Out - Understanding Russia's attacks on Ukrainian civilians

[JasonPratt]

^IF that is really what happened, Lukashenko is a genius that we have never really given enough credit to.

It occurred to me last night, that Luka might have heard some recent American news which convinced him that by early next year he'd better be playing ball with the West moreso than with Putin, which added to his decision to start that process asap.  I don't know the timing for sure but it's close enough to wonder about.

[Crossroads]

A recent video by Perun where he compares known Russian losses to depletion of stock as available in satellite images, and categorises them by year while trying to figure out the new production of war material.

If you're a new tanker, and if you're lucky, you are in the 10% who get one from era when The New Kids On The Block were the new kids on the block. But if you're unlucky, you are in the 20% to get a tank from when the Beatles were the new kids on the block. Or something into that effect. Ha.

Long but rather worth watching imho.

[FarAway Sooner]

Wow, if Lukashenko really follows through with this...he will have to be careful around open windows....

Don't be so naive, AZTank.

The windows in Belarus don't have to be open for him to fall through them.  Those slippery floors in the high-rise buildings of Eastern Europe can impart an extraordinary velocity to even the most casual pedestrian slipping towards a well-secured window!