Leaked Memo - War with China by 2025

[GDS_Starfury]

China has more to lose then gain making a play for Taiwan.  as long as Taiwan exists  he can use it as a domestic distraction which actually does help him maintain power.
I would also point out that China does not  currently have tons of nukes laying about.  it's a more empty threat in the real world then russias saber rattling.

[Windigo]

Having lots of soldiers means nothing if they have no way of getting over to Taiwan. I am pretty sure that Taiwan now has a plethora of drones ready for this sort of thing.

[FarAway Sooner]

The most common sin of Liberals is Condescension.  The most common sin of Conservatives is Certitude.  The most common shared sin of both sides is Contempt for the other side.  Make of that what you will.

Ward Carroll introduces his host as a retired General.  Do they have subordinates?  I've not been able to find the specific quote that is triggering all the media coverage?  Or am I missing something?  I'll admit I haven't had time to watch the whole video because my wife has a broken foot and I'm the sole everything for the family right now!

US hegemony hasn't ended yet, but it seems to be eroding steadily in the face of Chinese ascension.  That isn't the end of the world, IMHO, but it would be nice to see more democracies step up to the plate and get assertive with their more authoritarian neighbors.

I think the battle for air superiority in and around Taiwan would be the pivotal driver of who wins what.  The US has a half-dozen air bases in Japan and Okinawa that can be reinforced quickly, IF we can keep a ground-based air defense network intact.  Those bases can still be hit and would be repeatedly hit in any conflict, but historically it's proven a lot harder to sink air fields than to sink ships.

Obviously, Taiwan is a lot closer to Chinese airbases than it is to Japanese airbases.  I assume the Chinese would try to establish air superiority and suppress Taiwanese defenses long before launching an amphibious invasion.  But I think, for China, the notion of enforcing a blockade is safer, much less likely to trigger a unified response from pro-democracy forces, and ultimately a better play.

That particular drama is likely to last longer than our lifetimes, but I don't think it's (yet) as bad as the Cold War seemed for almost half a century.

[GDS_Starfury]

The Chinese would have to blockade a lot more than just Taiwan to effectively blockade Taiwan. And it's because of that that other regional powers would come in on the side of the United States and Taiwan to help out.  Not because they like Taiwan but because it's in there own economic interest to do so.

[Jarhead0331]

The most common sin of Liberals is Condescension.  The most common sin of Conservatives is Certitude.  The most common shared sin of both sides is Contempt for the other side.  Make of that what you will.

Ward Carroll introduces his host as a retired General.  Do they have subordinates?  I've not been able to find the specific quote that is triggering all the media coverage?  Or am I missing something?  I'll admit I haven't had time to watch the whole video because my wife has a broken foot and I'm the sole everything for the family right now!

US hegemony hasn't ended yet, but it seems to be eroding steadily in the face of Chinese ascension.  That isn't the end of the world, IMHO, but it would be nice to see more democracies step up to the plate and get assertive with their more authoritarian neighbors.

I think the battle for air superiority in and around Taiwan would be the pivotal driver of who wins what.  The US has a half-dozen air bases in Japan and Okinawa that can be reinforced quickly, IF we can keep a ground-based air defense network intact.  Those bases can still be hit and would be repeatedly hit in any conflict, but historically it's proven a lot harder to sink air fields than to sink ships.

Obviously, Taiwan is a lot closer to Chinese airbases than it is to Japanese airbases.  I assume the Chinese would try to establish air superiority and suppress Taiwanese defenses long before launching an amphibious invasion.  But I think, for China, the notion of enforcing a blockade is safer, much less likely to trigger a unified response from pro-democracy forces, and ultimately a better play.

That particular drama is likely to last longer than our lifetimes, but I don't think it's (yet) as bad as the Cold War seemed for almost half a century.

The guest is retired Navy Commander Bryan McGrath. Commander McGrath is the founding director of Delex Consulting, Studies and Analysis. On active duty, he commanded the USS Bulkeley (DDG-84) from 2004 to 2006; he also led the team that produced the 2007 maritime strategy, A Cooperative Strategy for 21st-Century Seapower, and was its primary author.

The memo of the Air Force general is quoted in the video. Here is a copy:





This guy is commander of Mobility Command. He is paid to move stuff, so the bellicose nature of the memo comes across as unhinged. This General has a history of making some wild comments that have resulted in his censure in the past. For instance, he once said publicly, ""Lethality matters most...When you can kill your enemy, every part of your life is better. Your food tastes better. Your marriage is stronger..."

I mean, WTF? Only someone who is part of Mobility Command and who has never actually had to kill anyone could say something this absurd.

[MengJiao]

Star believes all of Asia will jump into a war with China. I'm not so sure, all of them being within range of Ping's Ballistic Missile force would cause most to sit on the sidelines, at least to see who's going to come-out on top. No this war would be fought by the U.S. and Taiwan. One country a hundred miles away, the other what 7,000? From a nuclear armed nation full of billions of people. That sounds like we could handle that in a slow weekend. 

On the other hand, the Chi Comms could easily let Little Kim off his leash and then Japan and S. Korea would have to get involved. That's another 35,000 American troops as well as South Korea to protect. Starting to get big isn't it? Maybe out-of-control?

Star's right I believe about the Chi Comms build-up before the invasion giving us some warning ahead of time, the economic disruption to BOTH nations would be catastrophic, and in addition, China hasn't been in a large war since, Korea? So their troops really have zero combat experience. Of course so do Taiwan's, at least some of our troops have been shot at recently.

But this won't be an Army war. It will be fought by the Navy and Air Force who have  not since WWII been in a conflict where large numbers of their ships and planes are  being destroyed. How that will effect the commanders, as well as the politicians back in Washington, is impossible, even for someone as well read as Starfury, to be able to tell for certain.

China can take Taiwan any time they want, but at what price is the question? If Ping thinks it will/might be too high, he'll back-off. We should do everything in our power to place that doubt in his mind, with whatever Taiwan needs to make that happen. Have we done that already? I doubt it or else the Chinese would not be so aggressive and announcing their plans for reunification by force. Apparently Mr. Ping hasn't gotten the message from Star that he can't possibly win.

Please Star, go to Beijing and tell him yourself so he'll know for certain. That's one ticket I'd be happy to chip-in on. 

  It might be more useful for the Chinese for you to go to Bejing.  I think it would be new and marvelous news to them that they can take Taiwan any time they want. 

  There might be a few doubters among the Bejingians since while the US Air Force and Navy have not had massive losses in recent times, the Chinese Air Force and Navy have never been in any major wars at all.  Moreover, they might well wonder what levels of losses they would be expected to take while making an amphibious assault against technologically superior foes who are likely to have the cooperation of every regional power from Singapore to Japan (including the Philippines).

[W8taminute]

I watched most of the video but I'm not sure what to think about it.  It seems to me all the video is about is some general trying to motivate his troops by using exciting language. 

Now if you are asking will there be a war between the USA and China, then that's a different story.

Boy did the point fly over your head. 

It's about a general using extremely careless language and directing subordinates to take certain actions based upon assumptions that do not necessarily constitute official US policy. 

Well, yeah, I knew that!  Substitute my 'exciting language' for your 'careless language' and there you go. 

[Skoop]

I heard the Zumwalts are being fitted for hypersonic killing death rays.  It may have been a stealth ship fail, but the nuke power plant powering never ending lasers could be the tide turning naval weapon in the battle for Taiwan.

[GDS_Starfury]

its not nuclear powered.  it does however have a nifty power system that lets you reroute energy where you need it.

[Gusington]

The language used in that memo is bizarre and if the General did not have a history of writing/behaving/speaking like that I would almost think the memo was fake.

Additionally I really wonder if the Chinese boogeyman has been played up so much in the US that if real conflict began, would China turn out to be a paper tiger like Russia?

[FarAway Sooner]

One assumes that American planes based out of Okinawa and the Japanese home islands would intervene in any proposed Taiwan dispute.  And one also assumes that the Chinese would move to attack those bases.  I have to think Japan would get sucked into that quickly.

BUT, there's a big difference between "being opposed to a Chinese invasion" and "opposing a Chinese invasion".

It's my understanding that the CSIS (?) war games from last month covered a number of such scenarios, with largely similar results.  Opposed amphibious supply lines are certainly more vulnerable to high-tech interdiction than rail and road supply lines.  For the sake of the world, I hope this never turns real.

[Windigo]

I tend to agree with you Gus.

The saying that nation's fight in a new war based on their last war's lessons. What the hell did China learn from their last one?

[Gusington]

^JH brought up the fact that China did in fact fight the West to a standstill in Korea last time, and that was when their military was still in a very primitive state and the Chinese as a whole were still recovering from the Pacific War and their own civil war. So at this point in 2023 they have had 70 years to learn and develop their own weapons.

Some 'indigenous' weapons, from Iran, North Korea, Russia...turn out to be crap. Some, like Turkish drones, are better. Where will Chinese weapons fall in the spectrum? Utter crap or formidable?

And does it even matter if they are planning on throwing a million man force at Taiwan anyway?

[GDS_Starfury]

there are many reasons Korea played out like it did.

[Sir Slash]

Sorry about your wife's foot Sooner. Hoping she's better soon. Would that be her, 'ass-kicking' foot? If so, better stay on her other side if there's a large cast involved... from personal experience.

I think we cannot abjectly assume Chinese equipment is crap because they stole most of the tech from us. It their stuff is crap how much better can ours be?

Interested in what everyone thinks the effectiveness of those Diesel-Electric subs the Swedes used to sneak-up on the U.S. Navy Carrier Battlegroup a year or so back would be in this conflict by Taiwan? At the very least it might give Comrade Ping a few additional items to ponder before pulling the trigger.