Russia's War Against Ukraine

[GDS_Starfury]

yep, it was a Bayraktar which explains the one way range.

[Windigo]

Going after the distillation/fractionalization units... smart.
Those are the towers that do the actual separation of crude oil into its component parts. Near the top of the tower is where the lighter components get pulled out. Butane, propane, condensates.... they cut the video off I think because there would be a nice flare off of the flammable gases there, not good for Russian propaganda purposes.....

If there was a good burn, that tower is toast. Takes months to rebuild/replace them.

[Uberhaus]

The Bayraktar has had trouble with being jammed on the fronts.  Maybe a brilliant Russian stratagem would be to divert its EW assets away from frontlines, HQs and logistics hubs in order to protect its petroleum industry. 

As to Fearless Leader^TM, he's kind of quiet today:  https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/other/russian-spies-furious-with-putin-over-moscow-attack-the-tough-guy-didn-t-keep-us-safe/ar-BB1kv08D 

Russia expert Mark Galeotti of the Royal United Services Insititute has revealed that some sources within the Russian security services are furious with Putin for trying to blame the attack on Ukraine.He told Times Radio: "The main thing I am getting from contacts within the Russian security apparatus is obviously a deep sense of shame about the fact that this was allowed to happen.

"But, frankly, even amongst them, exasperation with Putin over him trying to claim that this is something that it isn't. In other words, an attack from Ukraine rather than an ISIS terror incident."

He added: "I think it is clear that whatever Putin may be saying for public consumption, the Russian state's working assumption is absolutely that this is ISIS-K."

[FarAway Sooner]

Yeah.  The Ukrainians are doing their best to use asymmetrical warfare to target various Russian economic and (more or less) civilian targets.  While some of the attacks certainly do a lot of damage, they seem to be more of the pinprick variety than the stabbing variety.

My sense is that, so long as Putin controls the media and has the backing of his base, the Ukrainians can make life as miserable as they want for the Russians and it's unlikely to make a political difference.  That said, forcing Russia to divert defenses to protect regions deeper inside Moscow will certainly weaken those defenses that could be deployed on the front.

I'm not sure I understand the strategic value of further degrading Russia's Black Sea fleet.  It's already in a world of hurt and not even safe in its own harbors.  Are they simply trying to keep them locked up in port around the clock?

[Uberhaus]

Ukraine's economy is dependent on the export of grain through the Black Sea.  The EU farmers were protesting the grain going by land and ending up in their markets.  Who knows what Putin is willing to do now, with the risk of commerce raiding by the Russians it might be better to keep sinking them.  That is a pretty outlandish prognostication, but it has happened historically.

There is also the immense cost of losing a warship and the successful strikes can't be hidden under propaganda.  It's also a pretty direct statement by Ukraine ruining the purpose of Crimea as naval basing and that Ukraine won't let them keep it.

As to the civilian targets hit by Ukraine, they are economic and war effort.

[JudgeDredd]

I'm not sure I understand the strategic value of further degrading Russia's Black Sea fleet.  It's already in a world of hurt and not even safe in its own harbors.  Are they simply trying to keep them locked up in port around the clock?

What else would they use the seaborne drones for? Also - yeah, it's still bad news (not that most Russians would perhaps hear about it) but maybe it does keep them bottled up and allows their ships to get out and into the world.

[Con]

The Russians need to move a lot of material around to keep the front supplied
Much like their economy the war is very brittle and when it collapses it will probably be across a wide front
The infrastructure hits have also included trains and bridges so logistics is getting harder and harder 
With the Russians not using the Kerch bridge for supplies their landing ships are a key resource that can be used anywhere there is a suitable beach not just at ports 
Now almost half those ships are gone
Will this be the straw that breaks it open?

[Uberhaus]

It's unfortunate Ukraine's summer offensive didn't get into artillery range of the transport links from Rostov to Southern Ukraine.  A little easier for Russia to get supplies to its offensive at Avdiivka.

[Jarhead0331]

I'm not sure I understand the strategic value of further degrading Russia's Black Sea fleet.  It's already in a world of hurt and not even safe in its own harbors.  Are they simply trying to keep them locked up in port around the clock?

What else would they use the seaborne drones for? Also - yeah, it's still bad news (not that most Russians would perhaps hear about it) but maybe it does keep them bottled up and allows their ships to get out and into the world.

Keeping the Black Sea Fleet bottled up helps keep alive a vital transport corridor used by commercial ships to access Odessa.

[Tripoli]

Article on the current state of play IRT logistics in the Black Sea

https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2024/03/24/ukraine-just-blew-up-two-more-russian-landing-ships-its-too-late-to-matter/?sh=5fed74e1144a

[Jarhead0331]

Article on the current state of play IRT logistics in the Black Sea

https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2024/03/24/ukraine-just-blew-up-two-more-russian-landing-ships-its-too-late-to-matter/?sh=5fed74e1144a

The article makes a valid point, but I think it may also overlook the ongoing value of these relatively low cost strikes that inflict a comparatively heavy cost against Russia, while also providing significant benefits to the morale of the Ukrainian people and the PR effect that demonstrates Ukraine's continuing capability to launch offensive operations that yield at least the perception of consequential results.

[Uberhaus]

Zeihan talks about the revolution in warfare, then about the targeting of the Russian petroleum industry, and compares it to the industrial warfare that occurred in the US Civil War.

Does anyone have current numbers on how much damage has been currently done?  There is this, but it's four days old.  https://financialpost.com/pmn/business-pmn/russia-crude-oil-refining-drops-to-10-month-low-after-ukraine-drone-attacks

[Tripoli]

Article on the current state of play IRT logistics in the Black Sea

https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2024/03/24/ukraine-just-blew-up-two-more-russian-landing-ships-its-too-late-to-matter/?sh=5fed74e1144a

The article makes a valid point, but I think it may also overlook the ongoing value of these relatively low cost strikes that inflict a comparatively heavy cost against Russia, while also providing significant benefits to the morale of the Ukrainian people and the PR effect that demonstrates Ukraine's continuing capability to launch offensive operations that yield at least the perception of consequential results.

I was unaware that the Russians had completed the new rail line, and it does complicate the Ukrainian strategy of isolating the Crimea.  I would have to check to see what the logistical output of the new rail line is, and also whether there are any choke points along it that might make it vulnerable to interdiction.  You make a valid point about simply sinking the Russian LSDs provides both a morale boost and takes out logistics capabilities that have other uses, such as supplying areas that are off the rail and road networks, or supporting amphibious operations.

[GDS_Starfury]

interesting new russian anti drone protection:

[bobarossa]

I can see drunk russians impaling themselves on those things while climbing onto the tank!