Russia's War Against Ukraine

Started by ArizonaTank, November 26, 2021, 04:54:38 PM

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JasonPratt

Very good Newsweek op-ed on the importance of training and logistics in M1 (and other modern western tank) operations, and what happens when people using those tanks have only trained a few weeks or even months instead of years. Glenn Girona is a U.S. Army veteran and CRM program manager for UMGC Europe.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/i-served-on-u-s-army-abrams-tanks-giving-them-to-ukraine-is-risky/ar-AA17eZ6f?ocid=entnewsntp&cvid=9747b03c817141d2a69ecadeaf8f2d5a

QuoteThe ability to shoot, move, and communicate, are core to any successful tank crew. Doing it with better equipment will help, but the experience to fix the small problems that crop up will be critically missing. The Ukrainians will need to be able to answer questions such as: Are the turret hydraulics broken or did someone accidentally turn the tiny hydraulic release valve? How many spare track blocks and road wheels are there? Are the boresight procedures completed correctly? Is there anything available for mechanics to pull an almost 70 ton Abrams tank out of a mudhole a second lieutenant guided a tank into? Pulling a 45 ton T-80 tank out of a hole is going to seem like child's play in comparison.

Tactically, compared to even the most modern Russian T-90 tank (which is a substantial upgrade of a T-72 but still basically an older design with lots of foreign tech installed) an old M1 Abrams will be a revelation. Logistically, however, it may be more than a war ravaged country, fighting against a numerically superior force, can handle.

In my experience, tactics win battles, but logistics can win wars.

{...}

In my personal opinion, the small number of M1s sent to Ukraine are more symbolic than anything. Powerful but too difficult to employ with the resources and training available and too important to lose. It does however lead the way for other countries to provide their own tanks (though posing the same logistical issues) and demonstrate to President Vladimir Putin a commitment to support Ukraine.
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Sir Slash

Agree completely. Reading, Brothers In Arms by James Holland, the Sherwood Rangers in France 1944-45. Time after time tanks and crews were lost due to having too little time to integrate new crew members or leaders in place of people lost or promoted elsewhere. I'm sure it's much the same today.
"Take a look at that". Sgt. Wilkerson-- CMBN. His last words after spotting a German tank on the other side of a hedgerow.

GDS_Starfury

Toonces - Don't ask me, I just close my eyes and take it.

Gus - I use sweatpants with flannel shorts to soak up my crotch sweat.

Banzai Cat - There is no "partial credit" in grammar. Like anal sex. It's either in, or it's not.

Mirth - We learned long ago that they key isn't to outrun Star, it's to outrun Gus.

Martok - I don't know if it's possible to have an "anti-boner"...but I now have one.

Gus - Celery is vile and has no reason to exist. Like underwear on Star.


FarAway Sooner

Interesting article about recent Ukrainian responses to corruption allegations.

https://cepa.org/article/ukraines-war-of-no-return/

One indicative excerpt:

QuoteThe super-wealthy class of wealthy Russians, the so-called oligarchs, have their counterparts in Ukraine too. Their economic influence, won in the chaos of Soviet collapse, remains. 

Every measure of public opinion suggests Ukrainians have had enough. In an eye-catching finding last summer, polling by the International Republican Institute discovered that (perhaps predictably) the greatest concern for the population over the next decade was to restore Ukraine's territorial integrity (49%.) But almost the same number, 48%, said they wanted to eradicate graft. 

So the scandals around various Ukrainian government offices in recent weeks have not surprised Ukrainians, but it is likely to have generated deep anger.

Corruption in most countries is like weeds--not easy to clean up, but the hardest part is staying focused on keeping the yard weed-free for a long time afterwards so that the roots finally start to dry up. 

The trick here is to try to be "good" rather than "great".  Places like the US, Canada, Australia and Western Europe tend to have less corruption than many other places in the world, but even they still have more than their fair share.

FarAway Sooner

Quote from: GDS_Starfury on February 07, 2023, 06:21:55 PMgood bit here about 155mm shell production.

https://www.grid.news/story/global/2023/02/06/the-us-effort-to-arm-ukraine-starts-in-scranton-pennsylvania/

That is an interesting article.  I was particularly struck by the excerpt below.  As with making masks, antibiotics, and lots of other things, we start to get into trade-offs between, "How do we get this the cheapest we can during non-emergency times?" and "How do we scale up production for our own use as quickly as we can during emergency times?"  If factory automation can help that, it's good to know!

QuoteBrig. Gen. Reim said that the new production line being built in Garland, Texas, will be mostly automated, with human workers mostly just performing inspections. "What you saw [in Scranton] was very manual, very labor intensive. It's kind of Korean War vintage," he said. On the newer lines, he said, converting production from one type of ammunition to another becomes simply a "software change."

But for now, the Scranton plant continues to slice, heat and shape steel rods into deadly weapons in much the way it has for decades.

Pete Dero

https://www.telegraaf.nl/nieuws/2019118422/onderzoeksteam-mh17-poetin-speelde-actieve-rol-in-leveren-buk-raket : Putin played an active role in delivering Buk missiles.

The Joint Investigating Team MH-17 announced today that they have sufficient evidence that Putin personally authorized the delivery and use of the BUK that shot down MH17, and that once he's no longer president and have immunity, he may be persecuted.

During the press conference, the JIT played a telephone conversation between the assistant of the Russian Aksyonov, the so-called prime minister of Crimea, and someone else. That conversation followed an urgent request from Igor Girkin, the minister of defense of the Donetsk People's Republic, for proper anti-aircraft guns.

There are also tapped telephone conversations showing key Putin advisers meeting to discuss providing air support to Russian separatists in eastern Ukraine. There is "concrete information" that that request was submitted to Putin himself and that he made a positive decision, says the JIT.


ArizonaTank

#6051
Quote from: JasonPratt on February 08, 2023, 09:41:09 AMVery good Newsweek op-ed on the importance of training and logistics in M1 (and other modern western tank) operations, and what happens when people using those tanks have only trained a few weeks or even months instead of years. Glenn Girona is a U.S. Army veteran and CRM program manager for UMGC Europe.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/i-served-on-u-s-army-abrams-tanks-giving-them-to-ukraine-is-risky/ar-AA17eZ6f?ocid=entnewsntp&cvid=9747b03c817141d2a69ecadeaf8f2d5a


The guy knows his stuff. That is for certain. I don't think he is wrong.

But I do wonder how the war factor plays-in. Training that takes a year in peacetime, might take much less time in war. In war, everyone, including the supporting bureaucracies and command structures are focused and move with urgency. I have seen this effect in person (in another place and time), and it is definitely a real thing. 

We have already seen this effect with Ukrainian uptake of other Western weapon systems, such as HIMARS and Gepards (albeit these systems have presumably easier training needs than M1s).

Along those same lines, it will be interesting to see how the Ukrainian Patriot deployments go.

Johannes "Honus" Wagner
"The Flying Dutchman"
Shortstop: Pittsburgh Pirates 1900-1917
Rated as the 2nd most valuable player of all time by Bill James.

Skoop

I wonder if esim should donate steel beasts for Ukraine training ?  Basically covers all the nato tanks.  Never operated and M1 or leopard in RL, but after years of steel beasts, it wouldn't take long.

Jarhead0331

Quote from: Skoop on February 08, 2023, 07:01:51 PMI wonder if esim should donate steel beasts for Ukraine training ?  Basically covers all the nato tanks.  Never operated and M1 or leopard in RL, but after years of steel beasts, it wouldn't take long.

It would require a monster load of dongles.
Grogheads Uber Alles
Semper Grog
"No beast is more alpha than JH." Gusington, 10/23/18


GDS_Starfury

Toonces - Don't ask me, I just close my eyes and take it.

Gus - I use sweatpants with flannel shorts to soak up my crotch sweat.

Banzai Cat - There is no "partial credit" in grammar. Like anal sex. It's either in, or it's not.

Mirth - We learned long ago that they key isn't to outrun Star, it's to outrun Gus.

Martok - I don't know if it's possible to have an "anti-boner"...but I now have one.

Gus - Celery is vile and has no reason to exist. Like underwear on Star.


JasonPratt

Quote from: ArizonaTank on February 08, 2023, 02:30:45 PMThe guy knows his stuff. That is for certain. I don't think he is wrong. {etc}

Ah, good, I was hoping for some analysis from you!

Quote from: Jarhead0331 on February 08, 2023, 07:22:13 PM
Quote from: Skoop on February 08, 2023, 07:01:51 PMI wonder if esim should donate steel beasts for Ukraine training ?  Basically covers all the nato tanks.  Never operated and M1 or leopard in RL, but after years of steel beasts, it wouldn't take long.

It would require a monster load of dongles.

I foresaw the dongles coming.

.........
.....

...um. That sounded better in my head before I typed it out.
ICEBREAKER THESIS CHRONOLOGY! -- Victor Suvorov's Stalin Grand Strategy theory, in lots and lots of chronological order...
Dawn of Armageddon -- narrative AAR for Dawn of War: Soulstorm: Ultimate Apocalypse
Survive Harder! -- Two season narrative AAR, an Amazon Blood Bowl career.
PanzOrc Corpz Generals -- Fantasy Wars narrative AAR, half a combined campaign.
Khazâd du-bekâr! -- narrative dwarf AAR for LotR BfME2 RotWK campaign.
RobO Q Campaign Generator -- archived classic CMBB/CMAK tool!

JasonPratt

#6056
Meanwhile, following up an earlier comment, I asked someone on our county industrial board if they'd heard any chatter about the local munitions factory perhaps revving up again. On the contrary, the final disassembly, and sale of factory lands, has commenced.

I learned (what I then recalled hearing back at the time though I had forgotten) that the munitions factory was going along fine until it was shuttered by the Obama administration in order to consolidate its production capacity elsewhere (at Redstone, if I recall correctly...?)

As I quipped to my source, don't worry, no doubt the Russians (and probably the Chinese now) still have a nuke aimed at the site. ;)  :HideEyes:

Updated to clarify: I don't think I have a criticism of that consolidation plan by the prior administration; I certainly don't know enough about the details to have an opinion one way or another. I know there are logistic pros and cons either way about centralizing or decentralizing production areas. I only referenced Obama as a general timeframe for the decision and the start of implementation.
ICEBREAKER THESIS CHRONOLOGY! -- Victor Suvorov's Stalin Grand Strategy theory, in lots and lots of chronological order...
Dawn of Armageddon -- narrative AAR for Dawn of War: Soulstorm: Ultimate Apocalypse
Survive Harder! -- Two season narrative AAR, an Amazon Blood Bowl career.
PanzOrc Corpz Generals -- Fantasy Wars narrative AAR, half a combined campaign.
Khazâd du-bekâr! -- narrative dwarf AAR for LotR BfME2 RotWK campaign.
RobO Q Campaign Generator -- archived classic CMBB/CMAK tool!

FarAway Sooner

Yeah.  Hindsight in these things is always 20/20.

It's kinda like with Texas utilities:  You can choose between making electrical supplies weather-proof and paying more for something that might never happen or you can choose to go with what's certainly cheapest for the immediate future but might not work so well. 

I don't know that anybody on either side foresaw the logistical challenges of a High-Intensity Conflict like has played out in Ukraine.  It'll be interesting to see how Western democracies choose to navigate that balancing act five years after the Ukrainian War ends.

ArizonaTank

#6058
Quote from: FarAway Sooner on February 09, 2023, 02:46:36 PMI don't know that anybody on either side foresaw the logistical challenges of a High-Intensity Conflict like has played out in Ukraine.  It'll be interesting to see how Western democracies choose to navigate that balancing act five years after the Ukrainian War ends.

I think the answer is "yes and no".

Fifteen years ago, few in the West (with the possible exception of the Israelis), was thinking long drawn out artillery war.

The working assumption was that high intensity conflict would be a mix of "Red Storm Rising" and the First Persian Gulf War. The idea was that air power and precision guided munitions would paralyze artillery's effectiveness. Speed and hitting power were going to win the day.

Any military planners who were thinking or talking about a long drawn out artillery war, were drowned out by the politics of it. There was thinking that a war in Korea might devolve into an artillery war. But artillery duels aren't sexy, and what government would want to invest in tons and tons of old fashioned artillery rounds, when precision munitions were thing that got everyone excited.

But what we have in Ukraine is an operational situation less like Desert Storm's "Phase Line Bullet", and more like 1918's Battle of Soissons. As several of us have pointed out on this thread, there are so many parallels to WWI it is crazy. 

One of those parallels is artillery logistics. Pre-WWI doctrine was all about light, quickly deployed fast guns; like the French 75. But once the sides entrenched, it quickly became apparent, the big guns were really the "King of Battle." In the first year of WWI, all of the sides had trouble keeping their guns fed. Lack of shells even caused a scandal in Britain, and the the British artillery shell crisis contributed to the fall of the government.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shell_Crisis_of_1915

So just like in 1915, we see both sides scrambling to try and figure out how they can get more artillery rounds.
Johannes "Honus" Wagner
"The Flying Dutchman"
Shortstop: Pittsburgh Pirates 1900-1917
Rated as the 2nd most valuable player of all time by Bill James.

Skoop

Quote from: Jarhead0331 on February 08, 2023, 07:22:13 PM
Quote from: Skoop on February 08, 2023, 07:01:51 PMI wonder if esim should donate steel beasts for Ukraine training ?  Basically covers all the nato tanks.  Never operated and M1 or leopard in RL, but after years of steel beasts, it wouldn't take long.

It would require a monster load of dongles.

Haha, I should have saw that joke from grogs past coming, we'll played.