Russia's War Against Ukraine

[FarAway Sooner]

Yup.  It's basically a Storm Shadow (like the UK and the French have already shared) but with a bigger/better engine. 

The warhead is different than the Storm Shadow--same size, just a different construction.  Some people say it might be better at blowing up bridges, some people say it might not be.  The US has been very leery about sharing weapons that can be used to hit targets on Russian soil.

Of course, since Russia annexed 90% of the occupied Ukrainian territory (and a fair swath of unoccupied territory), I'm not sure how that is working any more. 

The US got a lot of blowback for not providing ATACMS early in the war.  While that might be justified, they've quietly since provided other (more modern) warhead types that seem to be as good or better. 

The advent of the Storm Shadows has given the Ukrainians longer reach, although the fact that they are air-deployed means that they are typically fired from further behind front lines than ground-based missiles might be. 

[Windigo]

Anyone ever read anything about the switchblade? It got hype early on, but nothing about its actual use. They probably were all used in like the first month.

[GDS_Starfury]

I think they're still being used but Ukrainian video release is pretty selective for all kinds of valid reasons.

[GDS_Starfury]

another one added to the club! 

[GDS_Starfury]

things in moscow go boom!

https://twitter.com/i/status/1689219825896144896

[GDS_Starfury]

https://twitter.com/i/status/1689221480339447808

[Uberhaus]

Telegraph says it's a night vision factory.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2023/08/09/russia-ukraine-war-latest-news-counter-offensive-kyiv/

Well, I know what the chair did to earn its hat and we all know what the shark did.  What exactly did the dolphin do, and was it on porpoise? 

[GDS_Starfury]

supposedly the dolphin tried drowning a russian woman

[Windigo]

Seems like Russia is trying to do something and UAF are making them pay the price... 800 dead in a single day? JFC!!!! Haven't read where all the blood is being spilled, just read about the number... UAF OPSEC is good.

[SirAndrewD]

Seems like Russia is trying to do something and UAF are making them pay the price... 800 dead in a single day? JFC!!!! Haven't read where all the blood is being spilled, just read about the number... UAF OPSEC is good.

Most of it's on the southern flank, especially where the breach was formed near Verbove.  Like I expected the Russians launched large and severe counterattacks in an attempt to relieve Robotyne and push the UAF out of Verbove.   They also made a large push around Staromyorsk.

The result was that the UAF decisively crushed those attacks, and now it looks as if they have Robotnye under their operational control.  The policy after the initial breach seemed to have been to pause, consolidate and await a counterattack in order to crush it and then move to fully secure the major towns anchoring the works.

The UAF also made another crossing of the Dniper in Kherson which opens up two beachheads.  These are still in very marshy territory and hard to supply, but they have the Russian panicking.  I'd be surprised if the UAF didn't cross with more than a couple hundred men or less, but the Russians are reacting, at least in media, like it was freaking D-Day.

[FarAway Sooner]

I guess there's no way to know whether stuff going on around Verbove is a pinprick or more of a crack in the dam.  That seems to be the million dollar question.

Any time a Ukrainian attack in this trench warfare doesn't result in much change on the battlefield map in 10 days, I tend to get pretty pessimistic about the strategic impact.  I hope I'm proven wrong.

Tactical successes are always nice.  They have to be turned into operational successes to move the needle much.  The introduction of SCALP/Storm Shadows seems to have accelerated some of the Russians' logistical woes.  If the dam is going to break, it'll be a lot more effective to see it happen before Fall weather turns nasty.

[Sir Slash]

I agree. The UAF has probably another 60 days to do whatever it's going to do before General Fall arrives with rain and mud. I believe they would be much further along if they'd gotten all the Bridging and Engineering equipment the West agreed to send them. I think a Winter Offensive would be unthinkable for both sides after all the losses of the Summer.

[GDS_Starfury]

at the rate the UAF is burning through russian equipment they might actually be down to T-34/85s by next spring.

[SirAndrewD]

The last major phase of the Russian offensive in the Kharkiv region is imminent. 

The Ukrainian MOD has confirmed that the Russians have shifted the axis of attack to the north and are massing for a huge push towards Kupiansk.  This axis has seen a lot more success than the regularly rolled back thrusts from the center axis from Svatove. 

Ukraine has ordered the evacuation of Kupiansk and now need to prepare to meet the attack as this will be the last chance for the Russians to breach the Oskil reservoir and roll back the UAF's gains from last years counter offensive before the first snows. 

Chances for the UAF look good, the Russians should gain solid ground early through sheer weight of numbers but they'll quickly begin to meet fortified natural obstacles as they get closer to the city. 

Crossing fortified estuaries backed by urban areas will potentially make Bakhmut look like a cake walk, but only if the UAF has enough forces to solidly defend there while still trying to stay on the offensive elsewhere.

[JasonPratt]

I'm not too worried about Ukraine's lack of forward progress per se so far: the Russians have been throwing rear-line reserves to the front defensive line pell mell to keep Ukraine from cracking it, and they're rapidly running out of reserves (not even counting refusals to go to or back to the defensive line).

I'm more worried about Ukrainian troop losses, but they're playing to minimize those as much as possible under the circumstances.

I guess there's no way to know whether stuff going on around Verbove is a pinprick or more of a crack in the dam.  That seems to be the million dollar question.

For the Russians at this time, a pinprick through the defense could easily become a crack in the dam.

I can't recall at the moment, but how's the crossing far south into Crimea itself going? I got the impression that it's mainly for 'demonstration' purposes, and not meant (or supported) for going very far other than establishing and holding a beachhead -- for now -- and that the Russians were scrambling around in the area unable to put together a sufficient response (for now). But I don't recall hearing anything more in recent days.