Russia's War Against Ukraine

[JasonPratt]

The BRICS thing is weird in any case. I understand in theory the desire to create an alternate trading reserve currency, but I also understand in practice that Russia and China clearly mean to use this to abuse their trading partners, especially China. Also, none of their partners are all that stable, and a reserve currency reallllly needs stability to work (but then again that's part of the point from China's perspective: team up with unstable nations and exploit their instability. Back when Russia was, cough, 'leading' the ComIntern, that was a big part of Soviet plans, too.)

So if Russia goes nukey, the worst that happens with BRIC is the other guys kick Russia out of the reserve alternate currency plan. Which at this point might as well be for the best anyway. (But keep in mind, much of the point to China teaming up with Russia on this plan, was for China to get permanent base access in the Black Sea!)

....now my incipient OD-C is gnawing at my imagination trying to work out an alternate nifty abbreviation if the BRICS lose their R.

[Windigo]

This BRICS thing is just nonsense. At the end of the day, no matter what the currency is in a deal or in a chain of deals; it all gets converted to US$ in the end. Everything is still benchmarked against the US$ even BRICS transactions.

 

[SirAndrewD]

Well, according to the Russian MOD the Ukrainian counteroffensive began yesterday with actions "All along the front" but mostly concentrated in the area around Vuledhar. 

Supposedly the UAF attack was utterly destroyed, with losses exceeding 500 dead and at least 15 tanks and hundreds of fighting vehicles. 

Russians are supposedly putting up video proof of this soon.  I saw a bit of buzz from pro-Russian bloggers hoping to finally see evidence of large scale losses of Leopard II's.

The Ukrainians are of course denying this.   I would of course take it all with a huge grain of salt, especially the idea that it was western equipment destroyed as so far I've seen no evidence posted by the Russians of anything outside older M113's as destroyed western gear. 

We should see soon though.  If the Russians did manage to wreck a UAF attack that completely, neither side will be able to hide it for long.

[SirAndrewD]

A bit more clarity about last night's attack comes from a few Ukrainian bloggers I trust and is now being reported by Forbes.

It looks like there was indeed an attack by two UAF Brigades at Neskuchne.  Pro-Ukraine bloggers identify this as a "recon in force" that may have taken Neskuchne itself and then advanced to contact, withdrawing once they came under artillery fire and Russians poured armor into the area. 

The Leopard II's that some Russians are claiming to have been destroyed seem by the video evidence of the attack to actually be UAF T-64's.  There is a video of at least one of the T-64's being lost to Russian tank fire, and a Russian T-72 being lost in the exchange. 

So, interesting to see how this develops.  It could be that the UAF was seizing ground in prep for the offensive.  It could also be another shaping attack. 

It does not look like the UAF took significant losses of men and western equipment as the Russian MOD is saying, but it does look as if they did fall back after meeting resistance and taking losses.

[Windigo]

Trusting Russian estimates/claims of enemy combat losses is akin to trusting Luftwaffe estimates/claims of enemy losses during the Battle of Britain.

[FarAway Sooner]

I'm glad to hear more detailed reports on that probing attack near Neskuchne.  Mainstream media carried nothing about it besides the traditional "Russia has claimed a stupendous victory and announced plans for a victory parade in downtown Kyiv next week.  The Ukrainian government denies these claims."

[bobarossa]

A bit more clarity about last night's attack comes from a few Ukrainian bloggers I trust and is now being reported by Forbes.

It looks like there was indeed an attack by two UAF Brigades at Neskuchne.  Pro-Ukraine bloggers identify this as a "recon in force" that may have taken Neskuchne itself and then advanced to contact, withdrawing once they came under artillery fire and Russians poured armor into the area. 

The Leopard II's that some Russians are claiming to have been destroyed seem by the video evidence of the attack to actually be UAF T-64's.  There is a video of at least one of the T-64's being lost to Russian tank fire, and a Russian T-72 being lost in the exchange. 

So, interesting to see how this develops.  It could be that the UAF was seizing ground in prep for the offensive.  It could also be another shaping attack. 

It does not look like the UAF took significant losses of men and western equipment as the Russian MOD is saying, but it does look as if they did fall back after meeting resistance and taking losses.

Sounds about like the definition of a feint.  UAF is "shaping' Russia's impression of where the attack is coming.

[SirAndrewD]

I'm glad to hear more detailed reports on that probing attack near Neskuchne.  Mainstream media carried nothing about it besides the traditional "Russia has claimed a stupendous victory and announced plans for a victory parade in downtown Kyiv next week.  The Ukrainian government denies these claims."

Right now it looks like the Russian media is reporting on every single action and calling it the counteroffensive, especially if it gains little or no ground. 

They had the same pattern at the start of the Kherson offensive.  The initial phase of that attack involved a strong UAF feint towards Kherson from Mykolaiv that was blunted, inspiring the Russians to launch spoiling attacks in that direction and the media to heavily report the UAF Counteroffensive had failed before it started.   The blow in Kharkiv came a week or so later.

The current attacks could be an example of that tactic writ large, especially since the Forbes confirmed the two brigades that went on the attack last night were not two of the units that were withdrawn for training/refit for the offensive.

[SirAndrewD]

Also of note, and this is interesting.  A lot of bloggers depend on the deep state map for updates on front lines. 

Well, for the first time deepstate won't be updating their maps.  There's no map update today and they say they don't intend to update for some time.

Take that for what its worth.

[GDS_Starfury]

losses according to russia

[GDS_Starfury]

 

https://twitter.com/i/status/1665748337067171840

[Sir Slash]

That'll make you give-up Vodka real quick. 

[FarAway Sooner]

Star, I think that video would be better accompanied by the Benny Hill theme!     

[GDS_Starfury]

I dont disagree.

Sasha, was that village over there this morning?

[FarAway Sooner]

This BRICS thing is just nonsense. At the end of the day, no matter what the currency is in a deal or in a chain of deals; it all gets converted to US$ in the end. Everything is still benchmarked against the US$ even BRICS transactions.

I'm not worried about the prospect of a rival global currency.  I agree that it's far-fetched.

I'm worried that Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa are all looking to work together, despite the fact that the Russian head of state is currently a wanted war criminal and Russia has embarked on a steady path of military conquest and expansion for more than a decade now!