Russia's War Against Ukraine

[Uberhaus]

Sweden and Finland have both felt threatened for several years now.  The PM of Finland states that: https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/finlands-pm-says-nato-membership-is-very-unlikely-her-watch-2022-01-19/  From the article Finns have increased to 28%  from 20% in 2019.

Sweden has sent a garrison to Gotland, an island that dominates the Baltic, in 2016 and reinforced it lately.  Sweden also suspects Russia for the buzzing of its nuclear reactors and palace by drones.  https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/44109/swedish-police-arrest-russian-national-accused-of-flying-drone-over-royal-palace  However, the Swedish Foriegn Minister is also saying no.  https://news.am/eng/news/687130.html 

Whatever they state about membership, co-operation is increasing with NATO (from https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/topics_49594.htm  )

Finland is one of six countries (known as 'Enhanced Opportunity Partners'1 under the Partnership Interoperability Initiative) that make particularly significant contributions to NATO operations and other Alliance objectives. As such, the country has enhanced opportunities for dialogue and cooperation with the Allies.
In the current security context of heightened concerns about Russian military and non‑military activities, NATO has stepped up cooperation with partner countries Finland and Sweden, with a particular focus on ensuring security in the Baltic Sea region. This includes: regular political dialogue and consultations; exchanges of information on hybrid warfare; coordinating training and exercises; and developing better joint situational awareness to address common threats and develop joint actions, if needed. Both partners participate in the enhanced NATO Response Force (NRF) in a supplementary role and subject to national decisions. Additionally, both partners have signed a memorandum of understanding on Host Nation Support which, subject to a national decision, allows for logistical support to Allied forces located on, or in transit through, their territory during exercises or in a crisis.

I'll conclude with a post about what Putin is capable of https://www.hudson.org/research/12750-vladimir-putin-1999-russian-apartment-house-bombings-was-putin-responsible
Hudson Institute was set up by Herman Kahn and others from RAND.  The author, David Satter, is the sole survivor of five individuals who made claims that Putin is responsible for the bombings leading to the Second Chechen War, and the murdered include and Aleksander Litivenko, the KGB defector poisoned with Polonium-210 and the preminent Russian journalist, Anna Politkovskaya, shot dead in her apartment.  Two of the killings (including Litivenko) were killed with radioactive isotopes not available to run of the mill assassins and clearly planned to make a statement.

[Pete Dero]

So as of today, if Putin gets the idea in his head that he will be seen as a loser if he doesn't invade...does he then give the order to invade?

Current weather favors the defenders so it could be invading is no longer an option.


State media are trying to make it look as if Russia already achieved their goals : 

They were pleased with German chancellor, Olaf Scholz, who played down the likelihood of Ukraine joining NATO in the foreseeable future during Monday's press conference in Kyiv.

Appearing on state TV show 'The Evening with Vladimir Soloviev', political scientist and Professor of Communications Dmitry Evstafiev boasted: "We won this round. We won this debut, it's evident from the way they are taking a step back.  The West suddenly started to talk to us. They haven't spoken to us in years. More than that, serious divisions manifested within the European Union. Colossal divisions within NATO."
On the same show : Karen Shakhnazarov said that "Putin was clearly bluffing and Russia isn't militarily ready for a full-scale invasion of Ukraine, but the strategy of intimidation through Moscow's show of force is working wonders. : It's exhausting them, it's exhausting the West and draining its energy."

Margarita Simonyan, editor-in-chief of the state media outlet RT tweeted "The boss never works according to someone else's schedule. And he doesn't do what he is told to do... We demonstrated everything we wanted to.  The devastating impact of Putin's war games on Ukraine's economy brings me pleasure".


We know state media speak the words Putin wants people to hear, so I hope this indicates, for now, the worst won't happen.


@ Uberhaus : the list is much longer.

https://www.amazon.com/Orders-Kill-Regime-Political-Murder/dp/1250119340  Orders to Kill: The Putin Regime and Political Murder
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/worldviews/wp/2017/03/23/here-are-ten-critics-of-vladimir-putin-who-died-violently-or-in-suspicious-ways/

[Uberhaus]

@ Uberhaus : the list is much longer.

https://www.amazon.com/Orders-Kill-Regime-Political-Murder/dp/1250119340  Orders to Kill: The Putin Regime and Political Murder
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/worldviews/wp/2017/03/23/here-are-ten-critics-of-vladimir-putin-who-died-violently-or-in-suspicious-ways/

Of course, but the apartment bombings are the most egregious with over 300 dead and 1000 injured.  Their only crime against the state was living in the wrong place.  He clearly has no respect for human life even among his own people.

[JasonPratt]

What does Putin get for his trouble? In no particular order.

1.) He shows off what he can do, for the sake of future intimidation politics.

2.) He probably gets to collect direct control of those new eastern republics which are largely pro-Russian anyway. (This could even have been his main target.)

3.) Having a strengthened NATO on his western border gives him more internal justification for tyrannical power for safety's sake. Remember, up through Putin's day the main strategic benefit of building fortified sectors was not for defense, but to stage invasions out of, and he's clearly thinking about that because he has consistently tried to paint Ukraine as a staging area for NATO to invade Russia: the same fortified sector strategy but in reverse against him. Using border threats to convince one's population to stop grumbling about an iron-handed rule, has been part of the general autocratic playbook for much longer than Putin (and the previous Soviet Union).

4.) If the Ukraine regards the West's response as insufficient for its own security (oh, yay, the US deployed part of the 82nd Airborne to Poland's border with the Ukraine, where they will be both completely useless and unlikely to get run over by Russia), they're more likely to shift focus to playing nice with Russia. With so much shared border, there's only one way that ends: with Ukraine as a puppet state sooner or later. But if that's going to happen anyway, better to string it out more peacefully and at least play for time (from Ukraine's perspective).

5.) Testing an 'immune response' from potential victims has also been a standard autocratic strategy for much longer than Putin. Based on RT's spin, they're happy with the strategic intelligence they've picked up.

6.) Bonus: doing 150 thousand pushups not only gives you any social benefits of flexing on your neighbor, it also equals exercise for your arms! Might as well maximize some diplomatic multi-purposes out of your training maneuvers, and iron out any current problems with the logistic network in that area. Sure it's expensive, but this is Russia: they traditionally practice at this scale. And if it leads to gaining effective control over Ukraine without an exponentially-more-expensive invasion, then the exercise has been super-cost effective.

7.) Bonus: scaring the Ukrainian leadership into leaving the country, even if only temporarily, makes them look like cowards who won't stand to fight with their people.

[Pete Dero]

@ Uberhaus : the list is much longer.

https://www.amazon.com/Orders-Kill-Regime-Political-Murder/dp/1250119340  Orders to Kill: The Putin Regime and Political Murder
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/worldviews/wp/2017/03/23/here-are-ten-critics-of-vladimir-putin-who-died-violently-or-in-suspicious-ways/

Of course, but the apartment bombings are the most egregious with over 300 dead and 1000 injured.  Their only crime against the state was living in the wrong place.  He clearly has no respect for human life even among his own people.

And still is he isn't the worst Soviet/Russian leader but that one is his inspiration.   

https://www.washingtonpost.com/outlook/2019/06/13/putins-dangerous-campaign-rehabilitate-stalin/

In reality, the misdeeds of Putin's regime pale in comparison to the scale of Stalin's crimes. But increasingly, the Russian president is actively rehabilitating the Soviet dictator's record, working to paint him as a strong leader who saved the world from fascism. The goal is to bolster Putin's own "strongman" leadership style in the eyes of ordinary Russians.


https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/jul/10/vladimir-putin-russia-rehabilitating-stalin-soviet-past

Vladimir Putin's rise to power came accompanied by a new version of patriotism relying on "heroic" and "bright" aspects of the Soviet past. An image of Stalin as a strong leader who had ensured victory in the second world war and led a Soviet superpower re-emerged. Television propaganda again worked hard to create that image. The millions who perished in waves of political repression were pushed to the margins of collective consciousness.

Today, the 1989 liberation of eastern Europe, the fall of the Berlin Wall and the end of the cold war are understood by many Russians in terms of defeat, disaster even. No wonder, given that Putin has called the fall of the Soviet Union "the greatest geopolitical catastrophe" of the 20th century. Today Stalin's face watches you ubiquitously from billboards, subway train walls, and bookstore windows. Dozens of monuments to him have sprouted around Russia.

[Uberhaus]

@Pete Dero

One must have one's evil role models, I guess.  Kruschev ended Stalin's cult of personality (and gave Crimea to the Ukraine) so who knows when Stalin's legacy will change again.  The Russian people aren't stupid; they are smart especially at keeping their mouth's shut. 

From the link at https://www.amazon.com/Orders-Kill-Regime-Political-Murder/dp/1250119340  The blurb for the book states:  "(Amy Knight) shows that terrorist attacks in Russia, as well as the Boston Marathon bombing in the U.S., are part of the same campaign."  I'm not sure what is being insinuated here and hopefully my first impression is wrong.  All I can pull up info wise is that the FSB warned the FBI about the main perpetrator.  Do you have any other links explaining this statement further? 

As to continuing provocations from the Jerusalem Post: https://www.msn.com/en-ca/news/world/russia-claims-mass-civilian-graves-found-in-donbas/ar-AATWAYt?ocid=msedgntp

Russia's Investigative Committee claimed on Wednesday that mass graves of hundreds of Russian-speaking civilians had been found in the Donbas region, as the Russian government continued to accuse Ukraine of genocide and human rights violations in Donbas.

and

On Tuesday, the Russian TASS news site reported that an attempted terrorist attack had been thwarted in Luhansk, a city controlled by pro-Russian separatists in the disputed Donbas region. According to the report, an improvised explosive device was discovered in a trash can in the city where a rally for the Russian Memorial Day of soldiers-internationalists, which commemorates those soldiers who fell while operating abroad, was planned. The Ministry of State Security of the Luhansk People's Republic stated that the alleged explosive device could have caused civilian casualties if it had not been found and neutralized.

[GDS_Starfury]

so its taken 8 years to find a mass grave.....  ::)

[Pete Dero]

From the link at https://www.amazon.com/Orders-Kill-Regime-Political-Murder/dp/1250119340  The blurb for the book states:  "(Amy Knight) shows that terrorist attacks in Russia, as well as the Boston Marathon bombing in the U.S., are part of the same campaign."  I'm not sure what is being insinuated here and hopefully my first impression is wrong.  All I can pull up info wise is that the FSB warned the FBI about the main perpetrator.  Do you have any other links explaining this statement further? 

I believe this part of the book is more speculation than proof.  She claims Tamerlan Tsarnaev, the older of the April 2013 Boston Marathon bombing brothers, may have been a Russian agent, recruited by the FSB.  On Jan. 21, 2012, Tsarnaev flew to Russia, 15 months before the Marathon bombing. Some are alleging that Tsarnaev was sent there to aid counter-terrorism operations against Russian Islamic radicals.   There is no definitive evidence to back this claim.

https://www.nytimes.com/2014/04/10/us/russia-failed-to-share-details-on-boston-marathon-bombing-suspect.html

Parts from the book :

On November 6, 2011, Tamerlan Tsarnaev, the older of the two brothers who would carry out the
bombings in Boston, purchased a one-way ticket on Aeroflot from New York's Kennedy Airport to
Moscow. Although the FBI had been warned earlier in the year by the Russian FSB that Tamerlan was a
security risk because of his politically extreme views, U.S. agents concluded, after interviews with him
and his family, that the FSB message did not warrant anything more than putting Tamerlan's name on a
watch list of the Customs and Border Protection Service (CBP) in the event of his international travel.

But the FSB had apparently given two incorrect birth dates for Tsarnaev, and the transliteration from
Cyrillic of his last name that appeared on the watch list was Tsarnayev, with an extra y. On the day of his
travel, January 12, 2012, the CBP was apparently overtaxed with possibly suspicious travelers, so
Tamerlan went through customs and immigration unimpeded. He arrived at Moscow's Sheremetevo
Airport the next day and was back six months later, on July 17, 2012

According to a report by the U.S. House Homeland Security Committee issued in April 2015:
"Customs and Border Protection [CBP] failed to place Tamerlan Tsarnaev into secondary screening upon
exiting and re-entering the United States. Additionally, it is unclear as to whether a CBP JTTF [Joint
Terrorism Task Force] officer notified the FBI Agent who had conducted the Tamerlan Tsarnaev
assessment regarding his travel."2 In other words, U.S. security authorities missed the boat.
Now, more than four years after the bombings, Tamerlan Tsarnaev's sojourn in Russia has remained
a mystery. But a close look at the facts surrounding his 2012 trip, as well as his contacts in Boston, point
strongly to Russian involvement in the terrible tragedy that occurred in Boston. I have already
demonstrated, with the 1999 bombings and other attacks in Russia, how the Kremlin, through its
extensive infiltration into the underground insurgent movements in the North Caucasus, has used
terrorism to further its own political goals. I believe the Boston Marathon case is another example of this
strategy, this time exported to the United States

In the letter, the Russian government expressed concern that he [Tamerlan] had become
radicalized and that he might return to Russia and join extremist groups there. While lacking
compelling derogatory information on exactly why he posed a threat, the letter contained detailed
biographical information on Tamerlan Tsarnaev and his mother, including physical addresses,
marital status, [and] online social media profiles, and discussed his history as a boxer. The letter
also noted that he had previously hoped to travel to the Palestinian territories to wage jihad, but
decided not to go because he did not speak Arabic. The letter requested that the FBI notify the
Russian government if Tamerlan Tsarnaev attempted to travel to Russia.20
One question that immediately arises is why and how the FSB had gathered so much information on
Tamerlan and his family, given that they had lived outside Russia for several years. Clearly, the FSB had
earmarked Tamerlan for surveillance, but for what purpose? Did the Russian security services send this
memorandum as a sort of "fishing expedition" to find out what the FBI knew about him? They gave the
wrong birth date for Tamerlan: Why? Was it just a careless error?

One crucial fact overlooked by those who have investigated the Boston bombings is that Tamerlan
arrived in Moscow in January 2012, but, according to his aunt, Patimat Suleimanova, he did not show up
in Makhachkala, where she and the rest of Tamerlan's extended family lived, until March, and his father,
Anzor, only arrived there in May.30 Yet Anzor insisted that he had been together with Tamerlan the
entire time the latter stayed in Russia. He told reporters "When he came here [to Makhachkala] he was
with me, worked in the apartment, broke concrete walls. We bought an old apartment and did repairs
there. He was with me. He did not go anywhere. He did not communicate with anybody."31
So how do we account for the period between January and March 2012? Akhmed Zakaev insisted to
me that the only explanation was that Tamerlan was in Moscow during these two months, doubtless
being sustained financially and interviewed continually by the FSB. As Zakaev told me, it is not difficult
to see the Russians' motive, given that they had the upcoming Olympics in Sochi in early 2014 and
people were beginning to question the Russians' ability to keep Sochi secure. With an attack on
American soil, the focus would change—to the global problem of terrorism, on which Russia and the
U.S. could cooperate

[Gusington]

An uptick in shelling in Donbas this morning. CNN reports that a nursery school was hit and that there are two civilian casualties.

Reuters reports:

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/shelling-breaks-out-east-ukraine-west-moscow-dispute-troop-moves-2022-02-17/

[Pete Dero]

The Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs issued a statement following the delivery of Russia's formal response to a written document from the US over Russia's security demands.

The statement said, "On February 17 of this year, US Ambassador J. Sullivan, invited to @MID_Russia [the Russian MFA], was given a reaction to the previously received American response on the Russian draft treaty between Russia and the United States on security guarantees."

The statement was posted on the ministry's Telegram account:

    "❗ We state that the American side did not give a constructive response to the basic elements of the draft treaty with the United States prepared by the Russian side on security guarantees.
    The package nature of Russian proposals was ignored, from which "convenient" topics were deliberately chosen, which, in turn, were "twisted" in the direction of creating advantages for the United States and its allies.
    The growing military activity of the United States and NATO directly at Russian borders is alarming.
    ☝️ In the absence of the readiness of the American side to agree on firm, legally binding guarantees to ensure our security from the United States and its allies, Russia will be forced to respond, including through the implementation of military-technical measures."

[Uberhaus]

I believe this part of the book is more speculation than proof.  She claims Tamerlan Tsarnaev, the older of the April 2013 Boston Marathon bombing brothers, may have been a Russian agent, recruited by the FSB.  On Jan. 21, 2012, Tsarnaev flew to Russia, 15 months before the Marathon bombing. Some are alleging that Tsarnaev was sent there to aid counter-terrorism operations against Russian Islamic radicals.   There is no definitive evidence to back this claim.

https://www.nytimes.com/2014/04/10/us/russia-failed-to-share-details-on-boston-marathon-bombing-suspect.html

These were very ugly allegations by Knight, but as you state there is no definitive evidence.  Tsarnaev's missing time is not definitive evidence.  Not like the clear evidence of SVR involvement in the Salisbury and Litvinenko poisonings in the UK.  Possibly, Tsarnaev worked for the FSB in Chechnya and then acted on his own in the US.  I can't see how what he was doing in early 2012 can be known to the US or if he ever cooperates whether his story can be confirmed or even believed.  I'll read Knight's book and comment if I find anything worthwhile or sensationalist.  Thanks for the info.

[Con]

An uptick in shelling in Donbas this morning. CNN reports that a nursery school was hit and that there are two civilian casualties.

Reuters reports:

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/shelling-breaks-out-east-ukraine-west-moscow-dispute-troop-moves-2022-02-17/

Strong statement by a cnn analyst firner deputy director of national intelligence that the Russians knew what they were doing by targeting the kindergarten and are goading the Ukrainians into a response. 

[Gusington]

^Yes that is f'd up.

[ArizonaTank]

...
Margarita Simonyan, editor-in-chief of the state media outlet RT tweeted "The boss never works according to someone else's schedule. And he doesn't do what he is told to do... "
...

"the boss"?  Reminds me of that scene from the movie "Enemy at the Gates" where Khrushchev toasts a huge wall sized portrait of Stalin as "the boss." 

[Gusington]

^I bet Putin has a painting of Stalin in his royal watercloset that is twice as big.

U.S. Secretary of State Anthony Blinken at the UN earlier today:

"I am here today not to start a war, but to prevent one. The information I presented here is validated by what we've seen unfolding in plain sight before our eyes for months. And remember that while Russia has repeatedly derided our warnings and alarms as melodrama and nonsense, they've been steadily amassing more than 150,000 troops on Ukraine's borders as well as the capabilities to conduct a massive military assault. It isn't just us seeing this. Allies and partners see the same thing," Blinken said.