Russia's War Against Ukraine

[Jarhead0331]

Bill Whittle and his crew discussed another key point in favor of this theory yesterday, that appeals to logistics: namely, according to their contacts, Putin hasn't set up a proper logistic train for even trying to overrun the country, much less occupy it.

If you have over 100.000 troops and a large number of tanks and other heavy weapons on 'training exercises' you also have some logistics working.

True, but there's still a difference between logistics for support on the border, and logistics for invasion support. The paper they were referring to indicated that the logistics for invasion aren't there. (Unfortunately they didn't link to the paper, so I have no idea what the details are for that inference.)

Also, yes, I forgot that the administration quickly walked back Biden's comment, so that no invasion is preferable. However, this may also be a case of Biden accidentally saying the quiet part out loud, and/or signaling to Biden that even though our administration says one thing publicly, we're willing to accept some small decisive action.

Since when has Russia in wartime ever really cared about logistics?   

[Gusington]

Yes indeed where is climate change when we need to save the world??

I don't know what the winter has been like in eastern Europe but here in semi-upstate NY it has been brutaly cold for about a month...prime weather for the Tanks of New Jersey to invade!

[Pete Dero]

I don't know what the winter has been like in eastern Europe.

Not that harsh.  Right now temperatures are around 1° Celsius during daytime (freezing at night) and it looks like this could last for some time.  But normal temperatures should be around -5° Celsius for January.

[Gusington]

^Hmm that may hamper any plans the Russians have.

[ArizonaTank]

I wonder if the Olympics play into this. Putin and Xi have been pretending to be besties recently. A military "incident" in the Ukraine would distract from Beijing's showcase. Not to mention the Russian and Ukrainian athletes redefining the concept of "food fight" in the Olympic village cafeteria. The Olympics are over Feb 20th. The Beijing Para-Olympics go into mid-March. Maybe Putin just keeps things on simmer until after the last of the athletes are wheels up.

[W8taminute]

Or Putin and Xi each launch their attacks (Ukraine & Taiwan respectively) before the games begin because no one would suspect that they would be so bold.

[Gusington]

Can the Russians get an invasion in after the Olympics but before mud season?

[Pete Dero]

Can the Russians get an invasion in after the Olympics but before mud season?

Kiev Weather February Averages, Ukraine

    Temperature -3°C 27°F
    High Temperature 1°C 34°F
    Low Temperature -7°C 19°F
    Rainfall 40 mm
    Rainfall Days  7 days

Kiev Weather March Averages, Ukraine

    Temperature  2°C 36°F
    High Temperature  6°C 43°F
    Low Temperature  -2°C 28°F
    Rainfall 40 mm
    Rainfall  Days 9 days


If the weather is normal it could be possible in February.
But with the build up of defensive weapons in the area (mainly US support) delay would come at a potentially high cost.
And how will you keep explaining 120.000 soldiers on 'training exercise' for that long.

[Sir Slash]

Just curious. Are the Russian soldiers at the border from the National Army or are they more of a call-up force like our National Guard? It seems keeping them there if they have other jobs would put a huge strain on the economy for months.

[Pete Dero]

Just curious. Are the Russian soldiers at the border from the National Army or are they more of a call-up force like our National Guard? It seems keeping them there if they have other jobs would put a huge strain on the economy for months.

The have a standing army of 1.2 million (and a reserve of 2 million), so I guess this are regulars.

[W8taminute]

You know I've been thinking.  Is 127000 troops enough to subdue Ukraine or at least capture large enough territory to force a surrender?

[GDS_Starfury]

I dont think so but I could wrong.

[Gusington]

It's enough to storm Kiev and install a(nother) puppet.

[Jarhead0331]

I don't think Russia has the capability to take Ukraine by force and hold it. I don't think that's what they actually want. It's more about forcing Ukraine back into its sphere of influence.

[GDS_Starfury]

from what Ive seen, their homeguard battlions are trained to stay behind.  and them there Ukrainians love playing partisan.