Russia's War Against Ukraine

[Gusington]

^Haven't conquered them yet 

[FarAway Sooner]

Yeah.  I think "trying to conquer" is probably a more accurate phrasing of the sentiment there.  The narrator is clearly not trying to justify Russian aggression, just explaining what the stakes are for an expansionist Russia unwilling or unable to embrace Western reforms to make their own way forward.

It's a useful video, and it's a topic that's been surprisingly neglected by both sides.  I think the author emphasizes the military and realpolitik aspects of it a bit much and neglects the cultural aspects (e.g., Ukraine is the closest thing that Russia has to a peer in the region, and if Western values and reforms spread to Ukraine it was a likely vector for the virus).

Even if Putin doesn't succeed in conquering Ukraine, he's severed most of the economic and cultural ties that were a threat to his kleptocracy and his dreams of an Imperial Russia (reclaimed by him personally, of course).

[JasonPratt]

Even if Putin doesn't succeed in conquering Ukraine, he's severed most of the economic and cultural ties that were a threat to his kleptocracy and his dreams of an Imperial Russia (reclaimed by him personally, of course).

That's a good point at the end: as long as his people are now irreconcilably estranged from Ukraine, he might consider this an acceptable outcome even though far from ideal and not really promotable as a win.

....and then he'll fall over dead and someone worse will take over. 

[JasonPratt]

Now, THIS is a colorful piece of tech from China to help increase efficiency on the Russian battlefield at all levels!

[Gusington]

Does Belarus actually have the capability to intervene on Russia's side?

[GDS_Starfury]

yes they do.  I think all that would do is speed up delivery of all the toys the west has been dragging its feet on.

[Gusington]

Well according to the video, Belorussia has about 50,000 troops trained mostly in counter-insurgency warfare in sub-Saharan Africa, which would be totally wasted in Ukraine. And no political will for entering the war in a combat role...in fact, it's just the opposite.

Lukashenko fears a heightened Belorussian involvement would be the final straw that would lead to him being unseated (at best) or killed in a bloody revolution or civil war, at worst.

There are also reported units of made up of 100s of Belorussians in Ukraine fighting against Russia.

[GDS_Starfury]

What would the actual ramifications be of all these countries telling Switzerland to fuck off and giving the Ukraine the tanks it needs?

[Skoop]

Lol, so it's the swiss holding it up ?

If Beloruss joins the war, there will be a coup in minsk. 

[GDS_Starfury]

yes, its the swiss holding up a shitload of weapons and ammo because of contracts and supposed neutrality.

[Skoop]

Not sure I'd call Soledar a victory for Russia when you see the disparity in casualties.  Ukraine still holds the raised rail line that Russia has to cross open ground to get to, and further attacks have been ripped apart.   

[GDS_Starfury]

this is from back in June but I never saw it before and its somewhat interesting.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1614678524018712577

[GDS_Starfury]

[Sir Slash]

Is it me or does Lukashenko look like Scotty from Star Trek? 

[GDS_Starfury]

thats you.