Russia's War Against Ukraine

[Gusington]

I think it's worth worrying over. Has the last year not proven that anything can happen over there? Even with a victory over Russia...if chaos ensues, and nukes get loose...even one...it will be very bad.

[GDS_Starfury]

the worlds been down this road before the last time the soviets imploded.  the safety is cash and enlightened self interest.  every major nation state will pay for nukes at retail+ value.  terrorists dont have that kind of cash.  the people that will be selling them dont want the attention of fanatic people buying their goods. its a black market win win.

[GDS_Starfury]

We don't really know how insane Putin is

worry more about the people around him and who can be there to stop him.  once again some russian officer could be like, NOPE!  the silver lining is the world could use a few billion fewer people. 

[JudgeDredd]

Appeasement? Tried it. Failed. Move on.

[Pete Dero]

I think it's worth worrying over. Has the last year not proven that anything can happen over there? Even with a victory over Russia...if chaos ensues, and nukes get loose...even one...it will be very bad.

On Tuesday January 24, the Doomsday Clock was set at 90 seconds until midnight — the closest to the hour it has ever been, according to the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, which created the clock in 1947. Midnight represents the moment at which we will have made Earth uninhabitable for humanity. From 2020 to 2022, the clock was set at 100 seconds to midnight.

[Crossroads]

We don't really know how insane Putin is...his lines in the sand change every day. If the first heavy tanks deploy on a day of lesser clarity for him, well...

While he certainly might seem insane as how we think and value things, I don't see any insanity from how Russian elite thinks, and has thought, over the years, decades, ...

Cornered, certainly. His special operation did not play at all to his expectations, which as with autocrats, were within an echo chamber of yes-men. His military has failed at least so far. His energy weapon scored a wound but was not lethal, EU, US, NATO responded.

How this all works out is anyone's guess of course.

[MikeGER]

well, after fucking around for way to long and for no fucking reason  other then he's an east german shit, the German chancellor has authorized the release of 12 Leo 2a6 to the Ukraine as an initial batch.

Scholz is not an east German, he is a stoic Hanseatic person, former mayor of Hamburg and such

the reason for the Leo Angst explained from within:
the burden of German history with Russia is weighting heavy on his shoulders and the members of his sozial democratic party.
he wants at all cost avoid a TikTok Video showing up where some  Leopard2, with chalked on "German historic markings" by some Ukrainian patriot, who wants to mock the Russians for real good, passing the still smoldering wrack of a T-something with charred bodies hanging out of the hatches when a bullet hole plastered road sign comes into view showing the name of a famous tank battle from 80 years ago... if the artist is good the video then fade into black and white and over into historic picture of the same spot , same camera angle  but different tanks  ... this kind of memes and stuff. 

There was (is) the fear that Russian hardliners Putin inner circle cant take it and start doing irrational things, shifting their growing anger form the NATO in general and USA as the instigator over to especially Germany as the real hereditary historic enemy.   
 possible leaching out with a single volley missile attack on German troops in Lithuania, probing NATOs will to retaliate without letting it spiral down into WW3.
or more likely
asymmetric undeclared warfare against Germany: awakening of sleeper cells for sabotage against energy- , communication-, traffic- infrastructures  without military means.   Germany is badly prepared for that  (recently two simultan 'cable fires' 550km apart in switching points stopped train traffic for a day  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/October_2022_German_railway_attack  ... i think it was a test )
 A single burning fuel truck under an Autobahn bridge at a crossing can take the freeway interchange out for trucks for weeks in the affected direction. ... 

[Gusington]

^Well there you have it. It's the history wrapped up in the present chaos that makes me step back incredulously once a day and say to myself 'I can't believe this is happening.'

[JasonPratt]

For that matter, the current Russian strategy of "We will continue taking hideous casualties until we win!" has at least two major historical precedents back into the early 1800s. The big difference is that they're committing to this strategy on an initial strategic offense, not on a strategic defense. Russia had better be turning Crimea into a proper Putin Line pronto instead of messing around in the Donbas: at some point, they're gonna have to choose which batch of land they want to keep.

If they can. The general strategic expectation on the internet is "tanks ==> Crimea". If that's the plan, that's a big escalation even for Russia's strategic interests.

The basic problem, geopolitically, for NATO tanks, is that they are very capable weapons for offensive invasion. Which is great when you're retaking your lost territory (assuming you have the 84 troops per  tank necessary to support them, along with all the equipment and proper training for those 84 troops, or whatever the modern ratio is), but handing offensive weapons over to the Ukrainian government elides out of self-defense mode.

[Gusington]

Anyone know what this hat says? From Reuters.

[Jarhead0331]

Willy OAM on German armor...

[JasonPratt]

Anyone know what this hat says? From Reuters.

Subtitle this hat!

"Downfall-meme Hitler requests your presence in the bunker."

[Gusington]

 

[Pete Dero]

Anyone know what this hat says? From Reuters.

I think it is "Good evening, we from Ukraine"

(доброго вечора ми з україни)

[Windigo]

^It won't matter where you are if Putin is feeling cornered and testy and has a bad day.

Putins ultimate fall back is that the Ukraine just wants its territory back. Not sure if any war crime tribunals would occur other than a few sacrificial leaders.