Russia's War Against Ukraine

[ArizonaTank]

I guess this is one way to control power in Russia.  Kind of Machiavellian, but it just might work: 
 

I am re-reading Dan Jones' excellent "The Wars of Roses". It is shocking to read about the utter depravity and brutal power grabs of the late medieval English aristocracy.

Back in those days, you grabbed your rival in the middle of night, tried him or her for treason, and then chopped their head off all before breakfast.

You had lords switching back and forth between factions at the drop of a hat.

But then I see Russia today...and while the country, time and mode of killing are different, Russia today comes across to me as very medieval. 

https://www.amazon.com/Wars-Roses-Fall-Plantagenets-Tudors/dp/0143127888/ref=tmm_pap_swatch_0?_encoding=UTF8&qid=1678741164&sr=8-1

[FarAway Sooner]

The study that Meng quoted on the last page raises some interesting questions.  While we agree that Wagner has been spending recruits' blood like it was water in and around Bakhmut, we don't know why.

One possible explanation might be that Prigozhin has run afoul of his rivals within the Putinista Cabal, and he's now being tasked with an almost-impossible mission in order to wear down his own forces and weaken his position vis-a-vis the regular Russian military.  If that's the case, the horrific casualties being inflicted on Russian troops might not be spilling over to affect the rest of the military.  I've no idea whether that might be true, which units have been involved in the Bakhmut fighting over the last 4 months, or which units have taken how many casualties?

Fog of War sucks, doesn't it?

[MengJiao]

The study that Meng quoted on the last page raises some interesting questions.  While we agree that Wagner has been spending recruits' blood like it was water in and around Bakhmut, we don't know why.

One possible explanation might be that Prigozhin has run afoul of his rivals within the Putinista Cabal, and he's now being tasked with an almost-impossible mission in order to wear down his own forces and weaken his position vis-a-vis the regular Russian military.  If that's the case, the horrific casualties being inflicted on Russian troops might not be spilling over to affect the rest of the military.  I've no idea whether that might be true, which units have been involved in the Bakhmut fighting over the last 4 months, or which units have taken how many casualties?

Fog of War sucks, doesn't it?

Supposedly (and this happened about a month ago or so), the regular Russian army and a naval infantry force attacked at Vuhledar and suffered catastrophic losses so quickly and thoroughly that you have to wonder if the Ukrainians aren't using their best forces mostly in places other than Bakhmut.

ISW seems to think that a lot of what the Russians are doing (such as all the rather pointless use of massive missile strikes on civilian Ukrainians) has more to do with fighting an "information war" with its own internal factions.  So it is possible that the Russian war aim at this point amounts to an internal PR campaign to make various factions around Putin look good before they get thrown out of a window or something.

Speaking of the Wars of Roses, Putin and/or his successors might be the "moral equivalent" (thank you again Teddy Roosevelt) of Henry VI sitting under a tree somewhere wondering what is going on.

[JasonPratt]

I am 1000% sure Putin is not anything like an equivalent of Henry VI. But he might believe he knows what's really going on while constantly being surprised because people refuse to tell him the truth (as well as being unable to keep his own pathological lies straight.)

[ArizonaTank]

I am 1000% sure Putin is not anything like an equivalent of Henry VI. But he might believe he knows what's really going on while constantly being surprised because people refuse to tell him the truth (as well as being unable to keep his own pathological lies straight.)

+1 But I might go with Putin being closer to King John "Softsword" (Richard the Lionhart's wayward brother...and the man who brought us the Magna Carta...not by his choice of course).

[GDS_Starfury]

https://www.newyorker.com/news/the-new-yorker-interview/how-the-war-in-ukraine-ends?utm_social-type=owned&utm_medium=social&utm_source=facebook&mbid=social_facebook&utm_brand=tny&source=Paid_Soc_FB_0_BoostedPosts_0_NYR_US_ProspectingBroad_CM_PAC_Facebook_Mobile_Feed_&utm_campaign=Paid_Boosted_Traffic_&utm_boosted-type=Soc_FBIG_DR_BAUCM_Traffic&fbclid=IwAR1uiAIyDAUrh7wWybnUzEOqgSBvG5m6OvzaicKvK-mYvD6do9aq4Zn0zSI&ad_id=23853281468880548&campaign_id=23852589072050548&utm_source=facebook&utm_medium=paid

[JasonPratt]

I am 1000% sure Putin is not anything like an equivalent of Henry VI. But he might believe he knows what's really going on while constantly being surprised because people refuse to tell him the truth (as well as being unable to keep his own pathological lies straight.)

+1 But I might go with Putin being closer to King John "Softsword" (Richard the Lionhart's wayward brother...and the man who brought us the Magna Carta...not by his choice of course).

That seems about right: he was more punchy than people often gather (despite also being nicknamed "Lackland".) The Lionheart's good Crusading buddy King Philip respected John at least, in competing for the Continent.

Or a combination of Richard II and III, without any of their positive qualities.

(....why yes, I did finish screening Shakespeare's cycle of historical English kings recently, plus historical commentary from Churchill, Chesterton, and..... some other guy I never had heard of but who wrote a commentary specifically to work with the plays. Will find his book again at the house later for recommendation.)

[JasonPratt]

Remnick's New Yorker article on how the war may end in a settlement.

Plus Kotkin's previous interview for past reference and comparison.

(Probably beyond the paywall though.)

For the longer audio version of the more recent interview, try here.

[GDS_Starfury]

ya great, start a British history thread.

[JasonPratt]

Let's think of a house. Let's say that you own a house and it has ten rooms. And let's say that I barge in and take two of those rooms away, and I wreck those rooms. And, from those two rooms, I'm wrecking your other eight rooms and you're trying to beat me back. You're trying to evict me from the two rooms. You push out a little corner, you push out another corner, maybe. But I'm still there and I'm still wrecking. And the thing is, you need your house. That's where you live. It's your house and you don't have another. Me, I've got another house, and my other house has a thousand rooms. And, so, if I wreck your house, are you winning or am I winning?

I notice this analogy for Russia still "winning" the battlefield, only works if Kotkin isn't simultaneously tearing down his own house and bankrupting himself and killing his kids to go after the other house and stay there.

Kotkin knows Putin's side is also a disaster and he's wrecking his own house, too (albeit in a different way). I don't know how he doesn't take that into account in estimating that Russia is (still) winning the battlefield. No evidence that Russia's forces are disintegrating in the field?!? Sure, he's throwing in (quasi-) mobilized replacements, but (1) he had to do that due to disintegration on the field, and (2) what are they actually doing? They certainly aren't all on the frontline yet (if ever), but the ones who are there, what's happening with them? "Not disintegrating" doesn't seem to be an accurate answer (yet, if ever).

[GDS_Starfury]

well this is interesting. 

Per @US_EUCOM
, "At approximately 7:03 AM CET, a Russian Su-27 aircraft struck the propeller an MQ-9, causing U.S. forces to have to bring the MQ-9 down in international waters. Several times before the collision, the Su-27s dumped fuel on and flew in front of the MQ-9 in a reckless, environmentally unsound and unprofessional manner."

I kinda feel bad for our pilots that will now have to fly 12 hour escort missions.

[Gusington]

More from BBC:

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-64957792

[ArizonaTank]

well this is interesting. 

Per @US_EUCOM
, "At approximately 7:03 AM CET, a Russian Su-27 aircraft struck the propeller an MQ-9, causing U.S. forces to have to bring the MQ-9 down in international waters. Several times before the collision, the Su-27s dumped fuel on and flew in front of the MQ-9 in a reckless, environmentally unsound and unprofessional manner."

I kinda feel bad for our pilots that will now have to fly 12 hour escort missions.

Depending on sensors and other kit, an MQ-9 is very expensive. So in addition to safety and other issues, this is not a trivial event.

[GDS_Starfury]

about $20 to $25 million for this version and IIRC the Pentagon is starting to phase them out.
fun fact, these can be armed with Sidewinders. 

[Windigo]

That's a very fun fact.

BTW, when will we start hearing about smoking accidents associated with the JDAMs?