Russia's War Against Ukraine

[JasonPratt]

On March 8th, novelist Jack Carr's Danger Close podcast hosted Peter Zeihan, who picks up kind of where he stops in the prior lectures (with China's downfall), as a plausibly easy way to explain the Balloon.

He gets to Russia's war strategies and problems eventually, of course, although he goes back first to the end of WW2 and how that sets up Russia's problems today.

I will add that his attempt at parring Year Two of the Ukraine invasion to Soviet Russia's WW2 comeback from Stalingrad onward, kind of fails, however: Stalin's rock-star level generals were still going, and still VERY talented (as the Nazi high command grudgingly admitted); and Stalin wasn't simply throwing conscript-level bodies at the problem to win. He was doing that to buy time, of course, but what he dealt out steadily for the win was around 2 million core troops (plus fill-up auxiliaries) who had been doing elite training as airmobile and air assault, which Stalin didn't strictly need anymore, and who got handed the top quality gear which wasn't (to say the least) being given to the conscripts being shuttled across the river to Pavlov's House with one rifle and two clips for every pair of grunts.

I don't really understand why Zeihan thinks 750K troops will even stand up on the frontline(s) in Ukraine, or why the attempt to add 500K wouldn't completely shatter Russia's remaining Command, Control, and Communications. He shows occasionally that he knows their backfield situation; and he doesn't indicate anything to even suggest that's going to improve even up to the kickoff standard which he himself acknowledges sunk their original invasion with far fewer (and relatively better equipped and supplied) troops.

[GDS_Starfury]

what makes you think you haven't been?

...I feel like some words are missing there. Was this about smoking accidents involving JDAMS? 

yes

[GDS_Starfury]

heres my take on it.

From Politico:

**

The narrative that Ukraine's military is headed toward certain victory against Russia has recently taken quite the hit.  not seeing that from the information I read through.

Two weeks ago, NPR's FRANK LANGFITT reported that both Ukraine and Russia have torn through their best-trained and most-experienced troops. After a year of fighting, both forces now rely heavily on conscripts — a development that favors Russia since Moscow has more people it can call up than Kyiv.  I would say that the Ukraine is doing far better in this regard then is publicized.  they retrieve their wounded and have troops rotating through every NATO weapons school.

Then Monday evening, the Washington Post's ISABELLE KHURSHUDYAN, PAUL SONNE and KAREN DeYOUNG dug even deeper, reporting that pessimism and fear is sweeping through Ukrainian ranks. and whats the size of this sample pool?

KUPOL, a lieutenant colonel, told the Post that his battalion is "unrecognizable" from the group he started out with. "Of about 500 soldiers, roughly 100 were killed in action and another 400 wounded, leading to complete turnover. Kupol said he was the sole military professional in the battalion, and he described the struggle of leading a unit composed entirely of inexperienced troops."  from what front and what series of battles?

"We don't have the people or weapons," a senior Ukrainian official also told them. ya, because those people are at NATO training centers getting certified on a whole new class of weapons.  "And you know the ratio: When you're on the offensive, you lose twice or three times as many people. We can't afford to lose that many people."  no they can't and the next tranche of weapons lets them outrange the soviets by quite a margin.

**

Oh shit.  calm down

[Jarhead0331]

You need to diversify your sources and the "information" you consume. It's obviously very biased.

Here is a pretty balanced article that assesses the upcoming challenges that will be faced by Ukraine.

The opening sums it up well. This is only the end of the beginning.

https://carnegieendowment.org/2023/02/17/putin-s-war-against-ukraine-end-of-beginning-pub-89071

[GDS_Starfury]

Ive been posting balanced articles for months.  glad to see you off fox news.
I find this line interesting as the russians have already launched their winter offensive and its been failing nicely.  I get the impression that the AFUK are waiting for new NATO toys and better weather.

Both are preparing to launch major offensives in the near future.

[Jarhead0331]

Ive been posting balanced articles for months. 

That's not my impression of the vast majority of what you post. That is, the content that isn't worthless crap you dredge up off of TikTok. The only person I know who relies on that service as much as you do is my 9-year old.

glad to see you off Fox News.

Ah, yes. The go-to insult of the intellectually bankrupt and the hopelessly brainwashed. Bravo Zulu.

[GDS_Starfury]

while that article has some good points in its last section it glosses over a lot.

Its defense factories are operating "around the clock," and Putin has pledged to spend as much as it takes to supply his troops.

they literally cant make enough stuff to replace combat losses or replace munition stocks.

With every new weapons system provided to Ukraine, hopes rise for a breakthrough and a decisive turn in the course of the war. Yet that decisive breakthrough has so far eluded the Ukrainian army.

this seems to forget the offensives from late summer last year which did lead to breakthroughs and the retaking of quite a lot of territory.

Offensive operations are an inherently more difficult form of warfare than defense.

back to Ukraine getting NATO training standards for just this event.

Russia has suffered massive casualties—reportedly 200,000 dead and wounded. Ukraine's losses are estimated at 100,000. While Russian losses are reported widely, the extent of Ukrainian losses is less well known.

this part is intersting for a lot of reasons.  russia has burned through most of its initial invasion force and then called up another 300k people.  they seem to be getting there ass kicked as well and there are rumors of another 400k call up.  then add all of the men of fighting age that simply left the country last year so they wouldnt have to fight.  theyre digging into the people that drive a large part of their economy in both skilled and unskilled labor.  hows that going to work out long term?

[GDS_Starfury]

That's not my impression of the vast majority of what you post.

of course it isnt.  in fact Id be surprised if you have read any of the articles Ive posted in this thread at all.
I also dont use tiktok at all so....

Ah, yes. The go-to insult of the intellectually bankrupt and the hopelessly brainwashed. Bravo Zulu.

last I checked I havent been insulting anyone here.  it would seem that most of the grenades that have gone off in this thread had the pinned pulled by you.

[Jarhead0331]

That's not my impression of the vast majority of what you post.

of course it isnt.  in fact Id be surprised if you have read any of the articles Ive posted in this thread at all.
I also dont use tiktok at all so....

Ah, yes. The go-to insult of the intellectually bankrupt and the hopelessly brainwashed. Bravo Zulu.

last I checked I havent been insulting anyone hear.  it would seem that most of the grenades that have gone off in this thread had the pinned pulled by you.

I can't argue with a guy who tries to insult someone and then in practically the next post claims he never insults anyone. Delusional.

...and I meant twitter. Same twitch style garbage.

[GDS_Starfury]

you fail to understand that my remark wasnt an insult.
Im genuinely proud of you.

[JasonPratt]

Can't we all just fondly remember the time a Wagner BTG tried to take an oil site from American troops and triggered an overpowered ShootX from all in-range artillery and airpower (up to and including B-52s) until we got tired of winning?

In hindsight, maybe Putin really WAS trying to reduce Wagner's political clout...

[Skoop]

Can't we all just fondly remember the time a Wagner BTG tried to take an oil site from American troops and triggered an overpowered ShootX from all in-range artillery and airpower (up to and including B-52s) until we got tired of winning?

In hindsight, maybe Putin really WAS trying to reduce Wagner's political clout...

Any of you guys remember this when it happened in 2018 ?

I feel like it's been brought up a lot since rise of wagner in the Ukraine war.  Don't really remember it much in the press in 2018.

Also, there's several versions of the story that all vary with the amount of Russians present or killed.  Some say 15, some say 200, some say none.

What is confirmed is a large hostile force  attacked our composite force of Americans and Syrian rebels, and was vaporized by arty and air power.

[GDS_Starfury]

I remember it fondly. 

[Pete Dero]

https://twitter.com/CNNPolitics/status/1636306622015238144

[bobarossa]

Video on BBC shows a second pass by the jet where it was dumping fuel and ended up hitting the drone.  Video goes out briefly and when it returns you can see that one of the prop blades is bent.  Don't look like intentional collision to me.  Stupid pilot!

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-64975766