Russia's War Against Ukraine

[GDS_Starfury]

https://usafacts.org/articles/how-much-money-has-the-us-given-ukraine-since-russias-invasion/?utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=Paid&utm_campaign=General&utm_content=OneYearUkraine_Desktop_&twclid=235a74d6ager6iwz7d1tiznmeo

[GDS_Starfury]

based on the "leaked" information today.

[Crossroads]

I'm sure parents all over Finland are proud for their kids to go outside and see that as representative of their nation's commitment to Peace and Freedom.

That picture is from last winter, fresh after the invasion, from a cross-country World Cup event iirc. Russian athletes were not disallowed, it caused quite an upset. Including that stupid snow sculpture.

[Sir Slash]

Not surprising. Was it to advertise an, 'Event'? 

[GDS_Starfury]

ya it was protesting the "event" of russian trash invading a country.

[JasonPratt]

based on the "leaked" information today.

If accurate, that means "battalion" in Russian = "company maybe reinforced". Or "depleted". Or "screwed".

[JasonPratt]

Meanwhile, remember my previous post where Russia and China gang up to hustle land out of unsuspecting suckers, possibly opening up a way for China to leverage Russia to cede Crimea while settling for the Donbass?

Well, Zeihan has some brief comments on developments since then -- not about the BRICS agreement, but overlapping topically in places.

The less-than-a-few-minutes version is, China hates Russia, and cannot be trusted, and is IMMEDIATELY looking for ways to screw Russia over on land control. 

[JasonPratt]

Also, whassup with Turkey in the past week in geopolitical strategy regarding the Ukraine war:

Short version, "the Turks are Ferengis", but Ferengis with the 2nd largest NATO army on the ground in Europe.

[Sir Slash]

Yeah they could whip somebody if they could only figure-out who they're for and who they're against.

[JasonPratt]

As of two weeks ago, Zeihan was still "this is Russia's war to lose, they'll have more than half a million troops against Ukraine soon, etc.", and I still don't understand his reasoning. In the interview from then (I can post a link later today), the host immediately questioned whether the Orks had solved their logistical problem, and he instantly affirmed that all their crushing problems from logistics on down are still in place but that 'quantity is a quality' and they can still win with unsupported trash troops without destroying their own nation in the process (faster than they're already going down -- which he agrees will happen for many of the same reasons that have fatally handicapped their fight so far.)

I do not understand his persistence on this at all. It still seems to be 'well, Stalin did it, therefore...' without the slightest real comparison with Stalin's situation aside from the trivial surface similarity of sometimes-Stalin-had-to-use-trash-troops-and-also-failed-his-first-year-so-there. 

[GDS_Starfury]

russia doesnt have the people to win.  they still need to maintain their police forces, fire stations, government agencies like the fsb.  they need to maintain some form of presence along their extemely long borders ( now even longer with Finland).  they need to maintain some level of industry from mining to manufacture.  you just cant take huge swaths of men between 18 and 45 and expect your country to survive.
now while the same would seem to hold true for the Ukraine, it isn't.  they ARE fighting for their survival so those rules change.  its important to note that Ukraine isn't suffering from brain drain of their people leaving.  they're also getting massive aid from the West.

[GDS_Starfury]

https://twitter.com/i/status/1645388649196920833

[GDS_Starfury]

[FarAway Sooner]

Interesting footage of that plane taking off on the highway.  It looks like an Su-29 to me, but if anybody else here can testify to the contrary, I'll defer to their judgment.

One of the biggest reasons that F-16s aren't practical in Ukraine is because they need long stretches of highway that are kept very clean of debris for take-off in particular.  That requirement is acceptable for NATO countries, who have always relied on being able to maintain relative air superiority over their own borders and who have been able to invest extensively in keeping their own takeoff surfaces relatively pristine. 

But it's not nearly as feasible in a place like Ukraine, where Russian projectiles fall out of the sky on a regular basis and enemy surveillance could easily pick out the sorts of days-long logistical efforts it would take to make a runway readily usable for an F-16.

[GDS_Starfury]

the USAF and NATO have practiced from rough fields for decades, its 100% able to operate in the environment.
the two planes in question are a Mig 29 and Su 25.  for a fun google search look up Swedish highway take offs.
one of the main ideas behind this is a minimal footprint and logistic tail and hopping around a whole lot to avoid
getting hit.