Russia's War Against Ukraine

[Sir Slash]

Looks like their, "Chickens have come home to roost". Or are coming home. Sometimes chickens can take a long time.

[JasonPratt]

Meanwhile, who can save Russia from the Wagner Group now?!

Have no fear, Comrade, it is the NKVD or the 21st century equivalent thereof! Caps green, conscience clean!

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-12071401/Putin-prepared-use-brutal-security-services-stop-Yevgeny-Prigozhin.html?ito=msngallery

The article from the Daily Mail is suuuuper heavy on the ads and sidelinks, but it also has tons of detail (only a little involving the idea that Russian security forces may forcibly relieve the "chef" from command), so I'll quote some parts:

Vladimir Putin is ready to use his brutal security services to 'put a stop' to his longtime crony Yevgeny Prigozhin, head of Wagner private army, says a new report. The mercenary force chief appeared to brand the 70-year-old dictator a 'complete [Expletive]' and mock him as a 'happy grandfather' amid reports from the frontlines of a Russian retreat and Ukrainian gains around the besiged city of Bakhmut. Prigozhin hinted later that his foul-mouthed onslaught was in fact aimed at Putin's chief of the general army staff Valery Gerasimov, 67, who he blames for ammunition shortages at the front.

Another possible target was defense minister Sergei Shoigu, also 67, but many believe it was aimed squarely at Putin. Independent news outlet Meduza reported its Kremlin sources saying Prigozhin has now crossed a 'red line' in his repeated attacks on Putin's top brass and their failings to give his fighters ammunition to take Bakhmut. 'If this continues, official security forces will certainly put a stop to it,' said a source close to the Kremlin, reported Meduza. It was unclear if this meant liquidation – a fate of multiple Putin foes – or arrest, possibly for treason, which could see the 61-year-old billionaire warlord jailed for up to 21 years. The report says Moscow's propaganda agencies have already received a 'warning' from the Putin administration that if Prigozhin continues criticizing the Defense Ministry and reporting 'failures on the front,' journalists should begin 'portraying him as a traitor.'

Putin's administration will turn on him if he 'continues to break ranks.' The warlord has threatened to pull out of Bakhmut if his demands for ammunition are not met. This is despite Prigozhin reportedly still having the ability 'to enter into direct dialogue with the president,' his mentor. But other sources say Putin no longer takes his calls. The Wagner chief – whose mercenary forces operate not only in Ukraine but also Africa and Syria – is seen as being protected by close Putin cronies General Viktor Zolotov, head of the Russian national guard, and Tula governor Alexey Dyumin, formerly bodyguard to the dictator and tipped as a possible successor as president. But it is unclear whether they can now save him after his latest tirade. Meduza sources claimed Prigozhin's profanity-laden diatribes may be the result of frustration that he failed in a personal promise to Putin to seize Bakhmut – Moscow's primary target in its winter offensive and scene of the bloodiest ground combat in Europe since World War Two – by a certain date.

There has been speculation the deadline was May 9 – when Russia marked the annual Victory Day, commemorating the Soviet Union's defeat of Nazi Germany. 'Because of this personal promise, he's throwing the regular troops under the bus and making provocative statements. It's unconventional behavior,' one source told the outlet. It said 'multiple' Kremlin-linked sources said Prigozhin had crossed a 'red line' with latest outbursts. Prigozhin has expressed exasperation at the numbers of Wagner fighters killed – now lying dead on the frontline, or in graveyards across Russia – due to poor ammunition supplies. The warlord claimed the recent Russian retreat saw 500 of his Wagner forces dead – adding to the estimated tens of thousands already killed in Bakhmut.

In a recent video, Prigozhin delivered a message to camera in front of several uniformed corpses that lay on the ground behind him, covered in blood. A former convict, Prigozhin rose to riches by staging lavish Kremlin banquets for Putin – hence his nickname as the dictator's 'chef.' He also runs a propaganda empire including news agencies and troll factories pumping out pro-Putin social media messages in Russia and around the globe. And he is behind Wagner and several other private military companies in Russia. But there are fears he has become too big a threat, eyeing the Russian presidency if Putin is toppled due to war failures or falls due to ill-health. The main Russian push in Bakhmut has been by led by Wagner forces, mainly mercenaries, volunteers and convicts freed from jail to fight by Putin.

In a desperate attempt to seize the city earlier in the conflict, Wagner employed 'human wave' tactics, crashing unit after unit against Ukraine's defenses. Estimates suggest as many as 40,000 Wagner fighters were killed. Despite the massive push, Ukraine's defenders have managed to cling on to parts of the city and stopped Russia from advancing any further west in the region. News of Prigozhin's precarious position came after a Ukrainian unit said on Wednesday that it had routed a Russian brigade near the Bakhmut stronghold. The incident underlined the task facing the Kremlin as it carries out what it calls a 'very difficult' military operation. The unit's claim appeared to buttress the comments by Prigozhin, who on Tuesday said the Russian brigade had abandoned its positions in the city.

Colonel General Oleksandr Syrskyi, who heads Ukraine's ground forces, said Russian units in some parts of Bakhmut had retreated by up to 1.2 miles as the result of counter attacks. He gave no details. 'The special military operation continues. This is a very difficult operation, and, of course, certain goals have been achieved in a year,' Tass new agency quoted Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov as telling a Bosnian Serb television channel. 'We managed to beat up the Ukrainian military machine quite a bit,' said Peskov, citing Russian missile strikes in Ukraine. 'This work will continue.' Peskov said he had no doubt that Bakhmut 'will be captured and will be kept under control.' He also said the Russian campaign in eastern Ukraine was proceeding slowly because Russia 'is not waging war.'

'Waging war is a completely different matter – it means complete destruction of infrastructure, it means complete destruction of cities,' he said. 'We are not doing this. We are trying to preserve infrastructure and preserve human lives.' Peskov's comments did not address claims that Russia's 72nd Separate Motor-rifle Brigade had abandoned positions on the southwestern outskirts of Bakhmut. In a statement, Ukraine's Third Separate Assault Brigade said: 'It's official. Prigozhin's report about the flight of Russia's 72nd Independent Motorized Rifle Brigade from near Bakhmut and the '500 corpses' of Russians left behind is true.' A Russian brigade is typically formed of several thousand troops. 'Our army is fleeing. The 72nd Brigade pissed away three square km this morning, where I had lost around 500 men,' Prigozhin said on Tuesday, complaining his troops were receiving only 10% of the shells they needed.

Taking a quick break to snorf at Peskov's idea of trying to spare human lives and infrastructure in Ukraine, though admittedly Russia needs as much of that infrastructure captured intact asap.

In a statement later on social media, Prigozhin said Wagner forces had advanced 170 meters (530 feet). Ukrainian troops were confined to an area of 2.25 sq. km. (just under a square mile) and were coming under pressure in western districts dotted with high-rise apartments. Ukrainian military analyst Roman Svitan said the successes near Bakhmut amounted to the beginning of the counter-offensive. 'We are the ones who launched the moves to advance,' Svitan told Ukrainian NV Radio. 'We can say that the offensive that we have been expecting for at least the past six months got underway about a week ago.' Ukrainian Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Malyar wrote on Telegram that pro-Kyiv units had not lost a single position in Bakhmut on Wednesday. Russian troops invaded Ukraine in what Moscow calls a special military operation and initially captured large amounts of territory, but Kyiv's forces pushed back. Western officials estimate more than 200,000 Russian soldiers have been killed or wounded since the war began on February 24, 2022.

In his evening video address, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky named the Third Brigade and noted its report 'about the flight of Russia's 72nd Independent Motorized Rifle Brigade from near Bakhmut.' In Brussels, NATO's top military official said the war would increasingly be a battle between large numbers of poorly trained Russian troops with outdated equipment and a smaller Ukrainian force with better Western weapons and training. Admiral Rob Bauer, a Dutch officer who is chair of NATO's military committee, noted Russia was deploying T-54 tanks – an old model designed in the years after World War Two. In Washington, U.S. Attorney General Merrick Garland said he had authorized the first transfer of forfeited Russian assets for use in Ukraine.

[Windigo]

Too much text.....  need some graphics

Whoa! NEATO!!!

I count 4 MLRS doing ripple fire.

MLRS - A Haiku
by Windigo
Early night leaping
Surprisingly bright mlrs launching
under the rocket

[FarAway Sooner]

That is a lot of rockets.  I hear that the UK has sent some volume of Storm Shadow cruise missiles to Ukraine recently.

These apparently have a range of 150 miles, which would be 3 times that of the HIMARS.  Of course, they're air-launched cruise missiles, so the Ukes will likely need to fire them from 50 miles behind their own front lines to keep the planes safe.  Still, it would be nice to be able to strike more deeply behind Russian lines.

There's no details around how many such Storm Shadows have been provided.

I wonder what the accuracy is of the reports that the Russians had figured out how to jam the GPS nav systems in the HIMARS rockets.  If true, the Storm Shadows might be a useful substitute.  If not true, the extra range would still be a nice pick-me up.

The aerial delivery requirement is obviously a downside, but if it can give the Russian Air Force one more thing to worry about, that's not a bad thing.  Especially if newly arrived Patriot batteries have pushed the Russian CAP back a little further behind their ground lines?  I know that the advent of Russian CAP with super-long-range AAMs put a serious damper on Ukraine's ability to do much with their own planes near front lines.

[GDS_Starfury]

https://twitter.com/i/status/1656671248536199171

[GDS_Starfury]

interesting read from this guy.

https://twitter.com/DmitryOpines/status/1526477856821460993

[GDS_Starfury]

https://twitter.com/i/status/1656631466564935680

[JasonPratt]

At last! Some Nazis Putin can point to!? 

Ah well, in Ukrainian trenches, the bones of all troops become alike.

(I did appreciate the quip downthread of that Tweet, though: "But if they find some remains in a WW2 Soviet tank, that might have been from a few hours ago!")

[Crossroads]

A long article on a Navy SEAL who went AWOL and ended up in Ukraine. RIP.

Protagonist the one on the right. (added a picture to remind for the obvious that these are real people living and dying there)



Gift link: https://www.wsj.com/articles/navy-seal-ukraine-daniel-swift-a97491cd?st=frxj6958kbafh3z&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink

[JasonPratt]

Man, the 11th Doctor jacked up for the war! (RIP Matt Smith lookalike.)

[JasonPratt]

"The situation on our flanks is the absolute worst it could possibly be."

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarVideoReport/comments/13eragk/prigozhins_latest_frontline_report_the_russian/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3

[JasonPratt]

Speaking as a pretty conservative Christian who actually respects the Eastern Orthodox (at least in theory), I'm gonna say, "Spit. No way."

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/russia-is-floating-a-plan-to-build-a-village-for-conservative-americans-who-want-to-move-to-a-christian-country-and-are-tired-of-liberal-ideology-in-the-us/ar-AA1b5v2l?ocid=entnewsntp&cvid=1fef41b9ef9f4002a0ecc3ae30cfe0b1&ei=66

Anyone who falls for this kinda deserves what they're gonna get.

[ArizonaTank]

interesting read from this guy.

I imagine that these shows are choreographed based on the points that Putin wants to make.

The fact that the other commentators were letting the guy mostly talk, with only a few inane interjections, makes me wonder what the real message from the Kremlin is.

[ArizonaTank]

Speaking as a pretty conservative Christian who actually respects the Eastern Orthodox (at least in theory), I'm gonna say, "Spit. No way."

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/russia-is-floating-a-plan-to-build-a-village-for-conservative-americans-who-want-to-move-to-a-christian-country-and-are-tired-of-liberal-ideology-in-the-us/ar-AA1b5v2l?ocid=entnewsntp&cvid=1fef41b9ef9f4002a0ecc3ae30cfe0b1&ei=66

Anyone who falls for this kinda deserves what they're gonna get.

Potemkin Village 2.0

[FarAway Sooner]

Speaking as a pretty conservative Christian who actually respects the Eastern Orthodox (at least in theory), I'm gonna say, "Spit. No way."

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/russia-is-floating-a-plan-to-build-a-village-for-conservative-americans-who-want-to-move-to-a-christian-country-and-are-tired-of-liberal-ideology-in-the-us/ar-AA1b5v2l?ocid=entnewsntp&cvid=1fef41b9ef9f4002a0ecc3ae30cfe0b1&ei=66

Anyone who falls for this kinda deserves what they're gonna get.

Wait, you mean that Edward Snowden isn't living out his dreams as an ethical, intellectually enlightened American?