Russia's War Against Ukraine

[FarAway Sooner]

this isnt 1941 and they dont have that kind of manpower anymore.

Just to be clear, they lost 20,000,000 people in WW2 and came away considering it a victory.  They only need to tolerate the loss of a small fraction of that to let this war go on for another 5 years.

[Windigo]

Considering they have already couched this as a war against the west, I am certain they'll throw manpower at this and make sacrifices on the home front.

Won't do them any good though.

[JasonPratt]

They considered it a win because they eliminated Nazi Germany as an opponent, recovered all their own lost territory, and absorbed all Axis territory east of Berlin (plus Berlin, plus a significant area west of Berlin). Plus Stalin's government not only survived but came out of it at least as strong as going in.

That's a very fair estimation of a win, even with 20 million Russian (and related) casualties along the way.

It also gives a good idea of the ideal win-condition for Putin. ...well, ideal would have been to do this with absolutely minimum Russian casualties in a few days or even hours (not counting mopping up actions against partisans), but that didn't work so an ideal win regardless of casualties would be taking all Ukrainian territory, resources (including human), and means of production under control, while at least being in a feasible position to crush the enemy classes with an iron hand.

[GDS_Starfury]

pretty sure I posted this before.

https://www.yahoo.com/lifestyle/russian-limitless-manpower-myth-russia-170000026.html

nope, that wasnt it, continuing to look for it....

much better article:

https://jamestown.org/program/russian-armed-forces-faces-severe-demographic-challenges/

and a good sub-link from the above article:

https://jamestown.org/program/5-million-fewer-than-in-2010-ethnic-russians-make-up-only-72-percent-of-russias-population/

[JasonPratt]

Relatedly, hey Peter, what happened to those 500K+ troops you were just sure would be on the frontline as a gamechanger for Russia by the time the Uks were ready for a counteroffensive?

Oh, they never existed at all because Putin was lied to! Plausible. (See Star's links above.)

Also, as you know very well, Peter, Russia doesn't have the logistics to field them anywhere, much less at the front line. So there's that, too.

It's still a good view with good points.

[GDS_Starfury]

https://armyinform-com-ua.translate.goog/2023/05/15/cze-mij-300-j-bojovyj-vylit-kozhnogo-razu-dumayu-chy-povernus/?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en-US

if that doesnt work heres the copy paste.



- Morning. Just 40 minutes ago I returned from a combat mission... It was my three hundredth combat sortie. If someone thinks that this is something to be proud of, then you are wrong. Emotions are completely different... Every time you feel fear, every time before take-off you think whether you will turn around this time, or maybe this is the last flight...

This is how Lieutenant Colonel Rostyslav Lazarenko, a Ukrainian military attack pilot, describes his jubilee flight.

He emphasizes that the number of sorties with combat use is not at all something he would like to be proud of. But the ZSU pilot confidently came close to the record of the legendary ace Ivan Kozhedub. Currently, this is the largest personal number among pilots of all Air Forces.

- Since the beginning of the large-scale invasion, we have not had the same flights. Some sorties I just don't want to remember, but they still come in my dreams with the guys I lost in battle. I will never forget  Danya Murashkomanaged to shout "I deflected", and in a moment I saw a missile hit in the mirror, we were flying as a pair... And this is only one of three hundred sorties... Or when I was opened fire from literally everything, when I was destroying columns and only after returning, I understood , that my Su-25 is damaged beyond repair... Obviously, a normal person would run away from all this, but not you. You must be here, you must lead into battle, because there, at the front, our soldiers are waiting for you, holding the line of defense until the last breath, and they also want to live, they are also tired of this war, but they stand, and we have to, because behind us are our families, all of Ukraine and the Ukrainian people.

The lieutenant colonel said that he and his colleagues had repeatedly discussed in the team: "What are we working for?" And the answer is obvious to everyone.

- In order to stay alive? Of course, everyone has this desire, but no! To save as many soldiers as possible, to help them, so that this scumbag, or whatever you call them, does not spread across our land. If we destroy even one occupier, he will no longer be able to kill our boys and girls. And if we take dozens, and sometimes hundreds, in one flight, how many of our own do we save? And it is much more difficult for us on the front line... We flew in, worked out and returned to relative safety, while they are under constant fire. That's why he got himself together again, took the school bus and quickly got on the plane, because they were already waiting for you there...

PS Lt. Col. Rostyslav Lazarenko was one of the first to be awarded the Cross of Military Merit, is a Knight of the Order of Bohdan Khmelnytskyi of three degrees, a Knight of the Order of "For Courage" of the III degree.

[GDS_Starfury]

if a shitter su-25 can be useful why not A-10s?

[Groggy]

snippet from an interesting NYT article:

If Russia detonated a weapon, it would lose that jealously guarded treasure of superpower status. Such an act would constitute an admission that its army has been beaten — a tremendous loss of face.

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/05/09/opinion/russia-war-ukraine-nuclear.html?unlocked_article_code=vj8CnfGssAy-sr0KJ9R7mTyxMsxxT7DVnQTdew2iwXsYSLLXTdojzu6folr4aLpDNOFl-ifjiukR6iSbOR_DhmYhgR8QNcGM4ta-FXgixNRfDvZHoI-6gNt0qOUF54wfaM_LtR3Ie0zKckiWDIBS5fuUbIWDNv-rpjEXw8jIU2U-WOEzt1DeVa2p9jlKpY6mDJYirzxqnRlDFW7GtEIH8BMrIjipDQBVOiLbU4BjGkHD_rEBOTscET88QEZANF2TRIoZ1mT-SLr-5Yzywksbbvl136FYRgYWLDnaOAbdcHej42FwM7pAbbnRZknFkHDlsm9bhb3pKL29UsAzafqTQ7vLJ_k&smid=url-share

I'm suprised to see the NYT publish a thoroughly clear headed analysis on this subject for a change. Snyder knows his stuff so of course it's a guest essay.

[GDS_Starfury]

read

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2023/05/15/ukraine-counteroffensive-timing-success/?pwapi_token=eyJ0eXAiOiJKV1QiLCJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiJ9.eyJzdWJpZCI6IjQzNzQ2NzEiLCJyZWFzb24iOiJnaWZ0IiwibmJmIjoxNjg0MTIzMjAwLCJpc3MiOiJzdWJzY3JpcHRpb25zIiwiZXhwIjoxNjg1NDE5MTk5LCJpYXQiOjE2ODQxMjMyMDAsImp0aSI6IjYwYjAyMTJhLWY2YjYtNDk0Zi1hZDVlLTNhNTg5YmVjM2ViZiIsInVybCI6Imh0dHBzOi8vd3d3Lndhc2hpbmd0b25wb3N0LmNvbS9vcGluaW9ucy8yMDIzLzA1LzE1L3VrcmFpbmUtY291bnRlcm9mZmVuc2l2ZS10aW1pbmctc3VjY2Vzcy8ifQ.SvYBqstYKXBqZ2p6gN7hnozAS2E-xK5qJUYJ5FPBqJA

[DetCord]

After my initial post here, and then dipping out, I thought it best to speak about my experiences downrange. After having retreated to Montana with some fellow UA vets for over a month, those I served with and a few I didn't, it helps me to do so and it helps to push past the near constant flow of propaganda from both sides.  

So, if you have any questions that won't violate CO&T OPSEC I'll do my best to answer them.

[GDS_Starfury]

hows it going

[JasonPratt]

^ Best question! -- though very wide scope.

[JasonPratt]

Lt Gen Hertling's estimate from the WaPo article Star linked to a little earlier: "The Russians may have an advantage in occupying these static defensive positions, but only if their soldiers decide to fight."

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/russian-troops-taking-over-from-wagner-in-bakhmut-are-abandoning-their-positions-ukrainian-officer-claims-as-soon-as-they-are-afraid-they-just-run/ar-AA1bfRD8?ocid=entnewsntp&cvid=ae2385160f93408fb2591c7f893076b9&ei=66

(BI is citing a London Times article which is itself behind a paywall.)

The head of intelligence for Ukraine's 228th Battalion, who goes by the call sign "Zulu," said Ukraine's efforts have been aided by soldiers from the traditional Russian military taking over from the mercenary force.

"As soon as Wagner left and the regular Russian troops stepped in, they abandoned their positions," he said, adding: "The Wagner fighters would hold positions until the very end. Many of them were prisoners, right? So they knew it was either fight or go back to prison." [...]

Zulu said that Russian soldiers "have no motivation. They don't understand what they are doing here. So as soon as they are afraid, they just run." [...]

Ukraine's 228th Battalion recently withdrew from Bakhmut, the Times reported.

Kostiantyn Zhydkov, the commander of the 228th Battalion, described the brutality of the fighting to the Times: "I haven't seen anything as terrifying as this during the entire war."

[Sir Slash]

I'm thinking the Wagner guy's constant bitching and complaining about not enough ammo and support is a great excuse to get his men's asses out of Dodge City before the storm hits. It shows he may have a little sense after all.

[JasonPratt]

Remember when a Uk battalion's company surrendered at Mauripol?

They didn't surrender voluntarily, but were tricked by treachery in a commander changing sides (apparently):

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/commander-linked-to-capture-of-277-ukrainian-military-personnel-in-mariupol-charged-with-high-treason/ar-AA1bfH5h?ocid=entnewsntp&cvid=3bfe1be474fe41c3ba55c181b32b4221&ei=49