Russia's War Against Ukraine

[FarAway Sooner]

In the old days, academics and intelligence experts called the whole process of trying to figure out what was going on inside the Soviet political hierarchy "crypto-politics".  Seeing who was standing next to Khrushchev at particular parades or ceremonies was used to infer who might have more power or legitimacy within the Politburo at the moment, which was used to try to predict what policy decisions might occur in particular spheres.  It was also used to try to predict who might be the next-in-line if a current Soviet Premier died.

I heard an interview earlier this year with the guy who was the CIA Station Chief for Russia for over a decade back during the Cold War, and he said, "The only thing that has remained predictable about Russia is its ability to perpetually surprise you more than you thought you could be surprised."

I don't think anybody knows what the power dynamics or decision making is like within the Russians Halls of Power.  Trying to infer motive--much less ability--from some of the comments coming out of Russian state press, Russian leaders, etc. is a total guessing game.

[SirAndrewD]

^ This is entirely true.  One thing that you learn about studying Russian history and politics is the only thing predictable is its total unpredictability. 

The thing is, not even the Russians know who is in line, who is close to taking or keeping power, who is safe and who isn't.  I think of Alexander's death whenever I think of the parting of every Russian strongman.  In the end the one who will succeed is "The strongest". 

This stuff goes back even to the Tsars. 

There's a reason Prigozhin is keeping himself near the front line surrounded by his loyal men.  I don't think even he knows 100% where he really stands.

[JasonPratt]

Russia: BE FEARED OF OUR HYPERSOUNDIC SPEARS OF UNSTOPPING!! 

Ukraine: yeah, working on that...

There's a reason Prigozhin is keeping himself near the front line surrounded by his loyal men.  I don't think even he knows 100% where he really stands.

"If I blow out all windows in Ukraine, I am not standing near windows." 

[Gusington]

I never thought of this war in Alexandrian terms, especially on the Russian side, but reading a lot of ancient history now...it kinda works.

[GDS_Starfury]

seems a game of missile command in happening over Kiev.

[Crossroads]

^ This is entirely true.  One thing that you learn about studying Russian history and politics is the only thing predictable is its total unpredictability. 

The thing is, not even the Russians know who is in line, who is close to taking or keeping power, who is safe and who isn't.  I think of Alexander's death whenever I think of the parting of every Russian strongman.  In the end the one who will succeed is "The strongest". 

This stuff goes back even to the Tsars. 

There's a reason Prigozhin is keeping himself near the front line surrounded by his loyal men.  I don't think even he knows 100% where he really stands.

Seems a proper bulldogs-under-a-carpet brew is being cooked as we speak. Corpses of smaller players have been hurled out, defenestrated, or committed a suicide with their family, but it is difficult to know what is a power play and what is part of the mafia turf wars that surface once and a while, too.

[SirAndrewD]

Oh boy, Kadryov must be upset that he hasn't been in the spotlight. 

He just made a, almost commercial, for the T-72 claiming "On such a tank we will enter Kyiv and carry out denazification, simultaneously splitting the Abrams like nuts!"

Full story here  https://m.jpost.com/international/article-743216/amp

Never mind the horrifying idea of Chechens taking Kyiv and performing what they would term as "denazification".   The idea that they can even get to Kyiv let alone have T-72's brush aside Abrams with ease is almost Baghdad Bob level.

[JasonPratt]

Speaking of "Alexandrian"...

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/belarus-leader-and-putin-ally-alexander-lukashenko-rumored-dead-following-sudden-hospitalization/ar-AA1bdGD6?ocid=entnewsntp&cvid=bf2ff687afef4121bc0356d6e6938f5f&ei=77

In a sudden development to come just days after Putin placed ten nuclear aircraft carriers in Belarus amid Russia's ongoing war against Ukraine, Lukashenko was reportedly rushed to the hospital and is rumored to be seriously ill, in a coma, or deceased.

Well, if I tyrannized White Russia, and Russia put ten nuclear aircraft carriers into my landlocked country, I'd probably rush to the hospital, too! 

(Aside from the serious story, I thought the phraseology glitch was highly amusing.)

[bobarossa]

I'm guessing radiation posioning from inspecting those nuclear aircraft carriers!

[Sir Slash]

Or fell out of a window from a multi-story building onto a bullet which lodged into his head.    Genius to hide Nuclear Aircraft Carriers in Belarus where NOBODY would look for them. 

[GDS_Starfury]

 
gonna have to click on this one but its good and everyones ok.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1658879443304169472

[JasonPratt]

Zeihan's short analysis of current Bahkmut is pretty good:

[JasonPratt]

Business Basics (which occasionally checks in on the war from economic perspectives), looks at the confusing question of whether Russia is running out of soldiers or not.

Demographic shifts are a big factor.

Here is the related episode mentioned at the end, on the question of whether Russia is running out of tanks:

(Both answers in the end are 'yes', but more clearly in the latter case.)

[JasonPratt]

The Youtube arm of the mil-ops magazine "Task and Purpose", discusses Russia's economic expansion (and so also its military expansion!) into its Arctic areas. Thanks global warming!? (Though I don't recall hearing that Russia's 'Northwest Passage' has actually opened up yet. North America's hasn't.)

[DetCord]

hows it going

Livin'.

Learned that one of the Bn's we were attached to for a short while was nearly and completely obliterated. 70%+ causality ratio for them. No idea what that ratio entails with regards to WIA and KIA, though its probably evenly matched. A lot of UKR units are being completely destroyed and reformed with the greenest of green conscripts, but at least they're making an effort to delineate experienced NCO's and officers among them.