Russia's War Against Ukraine

[GDS_Starfury]

[Staggerwing]

^ What's the story there?

[GDS_Starfury]

no idea, just thought it was a good photo.

[GDS_Starfury]

[GDS_Starfury]

seems things are afoot on the Kerch bridge tonight.   

[FarAway Sooner]

Does anybody know how much freight to Crimea travels daily via the Kerch auto bridge, the Kerch railroad bridge, or via sea lanes over the Sea of Azov?  If I had to guess, I'd assume that ferry traffic over the Sea of Azov is the primary mover of freight these days, but that's only a guess.

That's also one reason why a Ukrainian counteroffensive towards Melitupol is meaningful.  A land corridor to the Sea of Azov can also create a flight corridor to the Sea of Azov, which would leave the ferries extremely vulnerable.  I don't believe that land-based Storm Shadows have the range to reach the Kerch Bridge from non-Crimean Ukraine, but hitting the ferries would be a lot easier, I think.

[Crossroads]

seems things are afoot on the Kerch bridge tonight.   

Seems some damage done for real. UAF of course knows nothing about this. Well Crimea river 

https://twitter.com/maria_avdv/status/1680822995973988353

[undercovergeek]

Over here on the bbc 'Russia blames Ukraine for bridge attack'

Blames?

Germany blames allies for attack on Normandy?

Can someone help me with the rhetoric here - why are Russia pointing the finger and saying it was them!! About the Ukrainians

You're at war with another nation a war you started and you're pointing at your enemy saying 'they blew our shit up' who else does the worlds press think it was and what do you want everyone to do about it?

Have sympathy?

[Crossroads]

Their propaganda is mainly for internal consumption.

We know that they are lying, they know that they are lying, they even know that we know they are lying, we also know that they know we know they are lying too, they of course know that we certainly know they know we know they are lying too as well, but they are still lying.

[JasonPratt]

Technically, the rails had been repaired enough to run a train on it, but not enough to run a cargo train on it. 

One lane traffic on the road-side of the bridge since the Whatever attacked it the first time. This lane was strong enough to run actual military convoys, but being only one lane there were obvious timing and size restrictions (and still probably weight restrictions, too, especially with multiple vehicles trying to cross.)

The flow was relatively small enough that the Russians couldn't dare to draw Ukraine's (careful!) offensive(s) into prepared fallback lines, but instead had to push up their reserves to try to preserve the front line of defense: so far as Ukraine reaches even the second line of defense across the land-bridge, they've rendered supply for the Russians in Crimea increasingly impossible for practical purposes, by interdicting the last rail lines and feasible roads into the area.

Relatedly, I saw some footage yesterday of at least two convoys of Russian infantry heading north out of the area, while the getting was good. The convoys themselves were pretty pitiful by anything more than 3rd world standards: a bunch of civilian cargo trucks and old VW-looking vans, plus some beat-up SUVs, the best things being a few city busses sprinkled in (probably for the officers). Of course, anything is better than nothing, but it was a harsh reminder of just how badly the Russians have lost their logistical transport. Nothing bigger than machine-guns, some mortars, and maybe shoulder-mounted g-t-a missile defenses could have been carried.

[JasonPratt]

News updates from Suchimimus...

...Davidov...

...and Enforcer Matt.

(Note: despite his thumbnail photo, Matt doesn't think any of the missiles got through to the ships this time.)
The Enforcer has the footage I saw of Russian very-very-light-infantry convoys withdrawing from the area. 

[Sir Slash]

I think it's also significant the reports I hear of numerous Russian generals being dismissed in the past week. It started with Popov but has spread to about, a dozen or more? This could be the first signs of a real Russian military crack-up, or a Putin crack-up. Or both. Anybody got any solid info on this?

[SirAndrewD]

I think it's also significant the reports I hear of numerous Russian generals being dismissed in the past week. It started with Popov but has spread to about, a dozen or more? This could be the first signs of a real Russian military crack-up, or a Putin crack-up. Or both. Anybody got any solid info on this?

What's happening is exactly what my friend predicted and I alluded to earlier. 

It's a full on purge and it seems right now that Shoigu came out on top.  Putin is consolidating power around himself and Shoigu and the "yes men" who don't deliver bad news or complain, especially about subjects like poor leadership. 

On the ground the issue has become a problem because the troops in the south are at this point literally starving and suffering horrific levels of dehydration.   This has not gone unnoticed by the UAF, hence the heavy targeting of railheads, supply depots and today, Kerch. 

Local officers of mid and flag rank have been trying to point this out and tell the Russian MOD that they're nearing critical mass of low morale and illness, but when they complain, they're getting the boot.

[Windigo]

I think it's also significant the reports I hear of numerous Russian generals being dismissed in the past week. It started with Popov but has spread to about, a dozen or more? This could be the first signs of a real Russian military crack-up, or a Putin crack-up. Or both. Anybody got any solid info on this?

What's happening is exactly what my friend predicted and I alluded to earlier. 

It's a full on purge and it seems right now that Shoigu came out on top.  Putin is consolidating power around himself and Shoigu and the "yes men" who don't deliver bad news or complain, especially about subjects like poor leadership. 

On the ground the issue has become a problem because the troops in the south are at this point literally starving and suffering horrific levels of dehydration.   This has not gone unnoticed by the UAF, hence the heavy targeting of railheads, supply depots and today, Kerch. 

Local officers of mid and flag rank have been trying to point this out and tell the Russian MOD that they're nearing critical mass of low morale and illness, but when they complain, they're getting the boot.

Low morale, low readiness and capacity.... just a matter of time. The UAF seem to be systematically degrading the capability of the russkies to fight in any sustained manner. Not a big sexy dramatic blitzkrieg, but it will accomplish the same.

Putin it seems, will have his 'Adolf - bunker moment' when the UAF take back the whole Crimea.

[JasonPratt]

Russia claims the Kerch bridge was hit by two surface drone boats. The bridge has dropped again, enough to halt practically all Russian logistics across it (what remained) -- although mail trucks can still get through.

The U24 account tacitly claims one of their underwater drones did it.


Business Basics kicks off their update with a wonderful video of Ukrainians chanting in English (sort of), "Kerch Bridge on fire! -- your defense is terrified, Kerch Bridge on fire!"

Not really much new news there yet, and I can't be sure that opener wasn't repurposed from an earlier strike or modified from a soccer match celebration (everyone has seen the pub cheering meme by now, I suppose).