Russia's War Against Ukraine

[Gusington]

How many Turkish subs operate in the Black Sea? 

[GDS_Starfury]

that russian counter attack in the north seems to be getting chewed to pieces with lots of footage of cluster munitions used.  this is the exact tactical environment these things were designed for.

[GDS_Starfury]

How many Turkish subs operate in the Black Sea? 

how many SSNs are there that no one knows about?

[Windigo]

that russian counter attack in the north seems to be getting chewed to pieces with lots of footage of cluster munitions used.  this is the exact tactical environment these things were designed for.

Ukraine recieving Cluster Munitions to blunt Russkie offensive.
Nick of time coincidence?    Ooooooorrrrr?
Intelligence saw it coming and time of delivery was deliberate?

I know where I fall on this.


As an aside....
I used to go on the odd winter vacation in Cuba (Canadian privilege), but I won't now. Poor decision by Cuban leadership to hob-knob with Putin. Yeah I know that for years the russians ignored Cuba, and now they come plying them with food/oil/tech.... but still.... have they no pride/global political sense?

[GDS_Starfury]

come to Ft Lauderdale 

[FarAway Sooner]

Windi, I do wonder how much of the US decision to supply them with cluster munitions was because:

1) The US was running out of other types of 155mm shells to share right away, or...
2) The Ukes were running out of Soviet-made 152mm cluster munitions for when they needed them, or...
3) Somebody's intelligence suspected that they'd be useful.

Of course, there's also the guy posted a few pages upthread who speculated that the submunitions would just be used to arm disposable Ukrainian drones.

I guess "all of the above" is as likely an answer as any other.  But, yeah, cluster munitions are much more useful in attacking soft and semi-hard targets than in hitting prepared defensive fortifications.

[GDS_Starfury]

its all the above.  I'm willing to just give in to serendipity.   

[GDS_Starfury]

pretty

https://twitter.com/i/status/1682476242568634370

[Uberhaus]

If people on the board are interested, I can run a couple of simulations in Matrix Games' "Nuclear War Simulator" and post the results here.  Let me know what scenarios you are interested in.  I think probably the worst case would be a 1 kT W54 at 40' in the air, but I'm willing to run others.

Instead could I please ask your expert opinion on a comparison of the Russian and Turkish navies in the Black Sea?  Unfortunately, Turkey's economic interests are threatened and I think we will see posturing should Erdogan find Putin intransigent on further attempts at diplomacy.  However, Turkey, under Erdogan, did shoot down a SU-24 in 2015 in Syria, allegedly over black market fuel.  It's a big jump from shooting down a plane in 2015, to a potential naval confrontation now, but I am curious about the ramifications.

[GDS_Starfury]

if a fight happens in the Black Sea, Turkey "should" be more then able to handle russia by itself.

[SirAndrewD]

Loaded statements here...

https://notesfrompoland.com/2023/07/21/poland-must-be-reminded-its-western-territories-were-gift-from-stalin-says-putin/

A lot of rhetoric that mirrors some of the statements before the start of the Ukraine war.  Notably, that Poland exists at the pleasure and generosity of Russia and its existence is probably a mistake. 

Also some cute weirdly pro-Nazi historical revisionism, blaming Polish aggression for the start of WW2.

[GDS_Starfury]

brilliant idea!  piss of the one country thats seriously considering getting involved without NATO.

[GDS_Starfury]

heres some CQB 

https://twitter.com/i/status/1682762576675864577

[GDS_Starfury]

still waiting for these to show up

https://twitter.com/i/status/1682644746936696833

[GDS_Starfury]

 

https://twitter.com/i/status/1682552301003632642