Russia's War Against Ukraine

[SirAndrewD]

The Ukrainian strategy is by no means accepting the concept of stalemate and defeat. 

The counteroffensive is very far from defeated, it's approaching achieving its goals from a different path than the traditional breakthrough and rapid advance.

The attacks they're performing now are liberating important positions deep into the Russian defense lines and making them harder to hold.  They're killing significant numbers of Russian soldiers that they have difficulty replacing due to the inefficiency of transport from the Donbas and limited access from Crimea. 

Russian intercepts show their troops at the front are not getting rest or relief, they aren't getting rotated. They are engaged 24/7 and in many cases only are "safe" because of the minefields they've deployed to protect themselves. 

When the UAF degrades or removes those fields they have been demonstrated to win decisively and with limited casualties. 

The latest excample is that today Robotnye is on the verge of surrender without the UAF having to launch and direct assault. 

The strategy now, is that since they currently do not have decisive advantages in the air or enough ground NATO tech that they are laying siege.  They're targeting logistics, they're attacking Black Sea Shipping bringing supply, and they've launched raids and artillery attacks to sever road access. 

This is the strategy that led to collapse in Kherson and the UAF clearly hopes to repeat its success here.  So no, don't take any of the current analysis as defeatism. 

The western and NATO expectations simply weren't matched by the reality of the Ukrainian strategy that evolved after the initial delays in the counterattack.  So, yes, cluster munitions, battlefield shaping and degrading the Russian army are absolutely viable paths to victory, just perhaps not in the grandiose way the west would like to see.

The only thing that plays into the Russians hands here is that they do desire the "long war" that will drag out until 2025.  They internally expect major policy shifts from the west as there may be significantly pro-Russian political changes in the US and the European democracies who were already shaky may lose their patience swiftly after.

So both sides absolutely have a strategy to win and still think they can.

[GDS_Starfury]

I dont think its anywhere near as late as the 3rd quarter.  more like getting positions before halftime.

[SirAndrewD]

I dont think its anywhere near as late as the 3rd quarter.  more like getting positions before halftime.

I would agree with that.  Much of the previous debate has been speculation, perhaps informed, but speculation notwithstanding. 

And to that end there are reports that Robotyne has surrendered to the UAF without a major fight.  A few pictures are circulating seeming to confirm that. 

If true that means they've taken another town through strain and clogging logistics, the same way they took Staromaiorske last week and Kherson last year.

[GDS_Starfury]

didnt post for the commentary and I cant seem to separate the video from the thread.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1689259243520565248

[SirAndrewD]

Photographic confirmation of the fall of Robotyne are starting to be posted.  Further to the west Urozhaine has fallen as well. 

The UAF seems to be back on the move after the pause and are heavily shelling supply lines towards the front.  A drive towards Verbove seems to be the chatter on Russian radio intercepts. 

It'll be interesting to see how far the UAF wants to drive in this time.  Novopokrovka is now being called contested and while its less fortified than Robotyne it's still bigger and an important part of the defense for the area.

Russian counterattacks at Robotyne are inevitable.

[GDS_Starfury]

well the halftime show might be starting with new Kerch bridge strikes.   







https://twitter.com/i/status/1690309340580708352

[GDS_Starfury]

https://twitter.com/i/status/1690312231802564608


https://twitter.com/i/status/1690336514255806465

[Gusington]

Are those tourists swimming in the foreground of some of those bridge shots? 

[Uberhaus]

Are those tourists swimming in the foreground of some of those bridge shots? 

Well, the point doesn't have a good break.

[Sir Slash]

Could this be the work of the infamous, 'Ukrainian Beaver Assault Team'? 

[FarAway Sooner]

Interesting clarifications of what we've been seeing on the front lines fighting.  I wonder:  This is clearly a way to occupy land and keep the Russians on their back foot.  Will it result in the defeat of enough Russian troops at a single point in time to yield more than very incremental gains?

I heard an article on NPR the other day that was talking about how this has been "the most documented war of all time".  The abundance of high-speed Internet connections, the universal presence of cell phones and even webcams around the fighting, the profusion of drones providing a bird's eye view, and the massive amounts of content proactively pushed by each side provide all sorts of fodder for the masses. 

The latter can be deceiving (e.g., "No, Bayraktar drones aren't still killing lots of Russians") but it can still make for some accurate headlines (e.g., "Yes, Russian tourists are fleeing Crimea in the wake of the latest attacks").

They were also talking about how the presence of so many hardcore Russian nationalist mil-bloggers has provided a startling ability to validate information that would otherwise seem very one-sided.  Reading between the lines, I wonder:  Are the Russian mil-bloggers are providing for much looser OpSec on the Russian side, or just proving an after-the-fact source for triangulating on data pushed by Ukraine?  Perhaps both.

[Uberhaus]

ISW website seems to be down.

[bobarossa]

Firefox says it's security certificate has expired.  I tried in private window and was able to continue by selecting advanced and accept the risk.

[Uberhaus]

Firefox says it's security certificate has expired.  I tried in private window and was able to continue by selecting advanced and accept the risk.

ISW is up again, thanks.  It has a link to a great article written by their staff, published in Time.  https://time.com/6300772/ukraine-counteroffensive-can-still-succeed/ 

The third is the most probable path to Ukrainian success. It will be slower and more gradual than the other two—and slower than Ukraine's Western backers desire and expect. It depends on the West providing Ukraine with a constant flow of equipment likely over many months so that Ukraine can maintain its pressure until the Russian forces offer the kinds of frontline cracks the Ukrainians can exploit. It is not primarily a matter of attrition. The slow pace of the pressure campaign Ukraine had been using before July 26 is designed to minimize Ukrainian losses. It is not primarily oriented towards attriting Russians either, but rather towards steadily forcing the Russians out of their prepared defensive positions in ways that the Ukrainians can take advantage of to make operationally significant advances. It is still maneuver warfare rather than attritional warfare, just at a slower pace. It therefore requires patience, but it can succeed.

[Uberhaus]

You're terminated, mothersomethingorother:

and in Soviet Russia drive off cliff to evade drone: