Russia's War Against Ukraine

[Uberhaus]

Ok, but what happens when there are no more Ukrainians left to do the fighting? Guns, ammunition and equipment alone will not win this war. That is an accepted fact.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraine-outnumbered-outgunned-ground-down-by-relentless-russia-2024-02-21/

...it seems to me that some of you are suggesting that an actual nuclear war is preferable to the prospect of living with the threat of one. Is this what you're actually saying?

Whoever thought I would be the sole voice of reason!? 

https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/ukraines-army-old-reason-might-have-change-208790 
Ukraine needs to fully mobilize its population if it wants to continue to exist, conscripting malingerers and even its constricted young cohort.  There is no point in protecting the youth of the country if the country will be lost.  Hopefully they will be able to muster and train them in time.

As to nuclear annihilation, to put it simply, some people feel that Putin will push and push, threatening nuclear war to get what he wants.  I believe he wants revenge for the loss of the Soviet Union, regain Russia's "rightful place" as a preeminent superpower and see that the West undergoes a collapse like the Soviet Union did.  When the West is no longer willing to placate this, I am unsure if he is a man of his word when he says better no world than a world without Russia.  Steve Rosenberg's commentary from last February on this:  https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-60551140

[Uberhaus]

Duh, Rosenberg's commentary was from two years ago, 2022.

[JudgeDredd]

Ok, but what happens when there are no more Ukrainians left to do the fighting? Guns, ammunition and equipment alone will not win this war. That is an accepted fact.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraine-outnumbered-outgunned-ground-down-by-relentless-russia-2024-02-21/

...it seems to me that some of you are suggesting that an actual nuclear war is preferable to the prospect of living with the threat of one. Is this what you're actually saying?

Whoever thought I would be the sole voice of reason!? 

I'm not saying actual nuclear war is preferable to living under one. What I am saying is living under the threat of nuclear war isn't any way to live either.

If you are suggesting that we don't fight for democracy because Putin decides to say "Look what I have you wankers", then what exactly are you countenancing?

So he finishes with Ukraine. What next? Are you suggesting we let Putin do what he likes to countries outside of NATO? That we don't fight tyranny and fight for democracy just because Putin decides to bandy about the N word (you know what I mean!)?

I'm saying call his bluff and what will be will be. What's the fucking point of having a nuclear deterrent if it's not a fucking deterrent? By your reckoning, he's the only one with a working deterrent...that is "Put troops in there and I'll launch". Where's our "By the way - we have a shit ton as well, and our fucking work" (well apart from Trident which apparently only seems to be capable of destroying it's launch platform...thanks America      )

What I'm actually saying is we should've, many months ago, supported Ukraine to send out a much more powerful "Fuck you" message.

I don't like bullies and he needs a square kick straight in the fucking balls.

[Jarhead0331]

Ok, but what happens when there are no more Ukrainians left to do the fighting? Guns, ammunition and equipment alone will not win this war. That is an accepted fact.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraine-outnumbered-outgunned-ground-down-by-relentless-russia-2024-02-21/

...it seems to me that some of you are suggesting that an actual nuclear war is preferable to the prospect of living with the threat of one. Is this what you're actually saying?

Whoever thought I would be the sole voice of reason!? 

I'm not saying actual nuclear war is preferable to living under one. What I am saying is living under the threat of nuclear war isn't any way to live either.

If you are suggesting that we don't fight for democracy because Putin decides to say "Look what I have you wankers", then what exactly are you countenancing?

So he finishes with Ukraine. What next? Are you suggesting we let Putin do what he likes to countries outside of NATO? That we don't fight tyranny and fight for democracy just because Putin decides to bandy about the N word (you know what I mean!)?

I'm saying call his bluff and what will be will be. What's the fucking point of having a nuclear deterrent if it's not a fucking deterrent? By your reckoning, he's the only one with a working deterrent...that is "Put troops in there and I'll launch". Where's our "By the way - we have a shit ton as well, and our fucking work" (well apart from Trident which apparently only seems to be capable of destroying it's launch platform...thanks America      )

What I'm actually saying is we should've, many months ago, supported Ukraine to send out a much more powerful "Fuck you" message.

I don't like bullies and he needs a square kick straight in the fucking balls.

You seem to be dealing in extremes.  Why does it have to be all or nothing? I'm a Cold War kid. Sure, growing up with the spectre of nuclear war was scary, but I'm pretty sure it was far preferable to actual nuclear holocaust.

I'm not suggesting do nothing. I've never suggested do nothing. I'm not suggesting that we let Putin attack nations with impunity. All I'm saying is important questions need to be asked and assessments need to be made. What are the risks? What are the consequences? What are the benefits and costs? It can't just be, "I hate bullies, so lets start World War 3".

I appreciate your passion and conviction and we're all on the same side. But I don't trust our own governments much more than Russia and I'm not convinced that western leadership has the interests of their people or even the Ukrainian people, as the primary driver of a policy of escalation. These are important issues that deserve to be discussed and can't be ignored because "fuck bullies". As you know, this isn't a school yard fight. The stakes are somewhat higher.

I cannot say with certainty that global nuclear annihilation is preferable to some peaceful solution of the war. I don't think that is in the interests of the US, of NATO or the entire world.   

[JudgeDredd]

I'm dealing in extremes because that's where we are.

Ukraine is bleeding to death. Russia is just throwing more and more meat at it knowing it can outbleed Ukraine. He knows it. We (the west) know it.

I appreciate nuclear armegeddon isn't for everyone. Seriously though, it's not ideal. Of course not.

But we are where we are.

Russia will not cede the Donbas, nevermind Crimea. Fact.
Ukraine does not want to cede territory to Russia. Fact.

That leaves Ukraine fighting a country that gives zero fucks about people and is willing to throw as many young men as is needed into a meat grinder in order to save face.

Russia is banking on 2 things...
1. The west running out of steam...and he's got valid reasons to bank on that
2. He's banking on the long game - where everyone stands by and watches Ukraine bleed to death...literally...and he's got valid rwasons to bank on that too

He has the winning cards given those two points. The only counter to that is Ukraine being given a huge injection of support. That is the only way this will end in Ukraine's favour.

Any other outcome will show the west as weak, Ukraine as a nation with no blood left and a territory that is like the surface of the moon.

I think you mentioned a while back about support, where will it end, we're only dragging this out. I agree. We ARE only dragging this out unless we get behind Ukraine proper.

Putin wins unless the West gets fully behind Ukraine. As I said in a post way back - that may be without the US and perhaps should be - meaning Europe needs to get it's shit together.

Appeasement didn't work in 1939 and it won't now. In fact, it never has done. It emboldens your enemy and weakens your resolve.

I'll post more shortly - if you (the royal you - not you personally) can be arsed listening to my bollox. 

[GDS_Starfury]

currently reading Who Can Hold The Sea: the US Navy in the Cold War 1945 - 1960.  the second chapter, Memo from Moscow pretty much underscores Dredd's post.  I'll try to post quotes later when I'm home.

[GDS_Starfury]

ot you could Google George Frost Keenan.

[Skoop]

I feel your frustration Judge and I've had this conversation hundreds of times this last year with republican coworkers, and the sentiment that Jar is saying is very real.  Americans are split on Ukraine.  Some feel we've done enough, and the 10s of billions should have been enough.  The average American doesn't understand the lesson of Neville Chamberland.  Many feel, we'll wait till they cross article 5.  Personally, I'm all for sending more support to keep Ukraine in the fight, but I'm alone in the circles I frequent.  I see more reaction from people about freeing gaza then helping Ukraine. 

It's unfortunate, but remember, a Korean War frozen conflict ending is a marginal win for Ukraine.  If they survive, that's a win, Sweeden and Finland in Nato = win. 

If the war freezes tomorrow, it's a win for Ukraine.  Frozen conflict at a DMZ seemed to work well for south Korea, they are thriving and I see that working for Ukraine.

I know the sentiment is russia will build up and attack again, but Ukraine will be in a better position too. 

I will say avdivka was a gut check to Ukraine, and like someone mentioned above, where's the mandatory all citizens report for mobilization to the military ?  It seems quite clear there's a manpower issue in Ukraine.  Thinking that western tech will save the day is as false as hitler thinking panthers would win kursk.  This war is soley about who has more men and unlimited artillery, who ever maintains that wins.  Welcome to the Somme 2024.

[GDS_Starfury]

but western tech helps the Ukraine attrite the russians manpower and arty advantage far more easily.

[Skoop]

For sure, I love seeing the weapons of democracy in action as much as you. 

The cold reality is that it's flesh, blood, and artillery rounds that will win this.

It might partially be our fault for selling that false sense of security to Ukraine without having our own house in order.

I still say it's worth it to send 5 billion a year for artillery rounds, patriot missile resupply, himars resupply to keep them fighting.  But the cold reality of the blank checks from Biden in 2022 are over and we should have prepared Ukraine for that.

They are also long over due for total war mobilization, the notion that they could do guns and butter on US tax payers dime was a falsity. 

[Gusington]

Meanwhile, in Bhutan:

[GDS_Starfury]

I still say it's worth it to send 5 billion a year for artillery rounds, patriot missile resupply, himars resupply to keep them fighting.  But the cold reality of the blank checks from Biden in 2022 are over and we should have prepared Ukraine for that.

that kind of resupply take a lot more then five billion.  I'd rather send money and weapons now then US and NATO troops later.  I agree that Ukraine needs to step up it mobilization if it expects to do better.

[MengJiao]

So he finishes with Ukraine. What next? Are you suggesting we let Putin do what he likes to countries outside of NATO? That we don't fight tyranny and fight for democracy just because Putin decides to bandy about the N word (you know what I mean!)?

I'm saying call his bluff and what will be will be. What's the fucking point of having a nuclear deterrent if it's not a fucking deterrent? By your reckoning, he's the only one with a working deterrent...that is "Put troops in there and I'll launch". Where's our "By the way - we have a shit ton as well, and our fucking work" (well apart from Trident which apparently only seems to be capable of destroying it's launch platform...thanks America      )

What I'm actually saying is we should've, many months ago, supported Ukraine to send out a much more powerful "Fuck you" message.

I don't like bullies and he needs a square kick straight in the fucking balls.

  I've been wrong about everything in trying to understand this war.  For example, I honestly thought the Russians would have no trouble overruning Ukraine in a week or two...But here's a weird item from ISW:

Russian military thinkers are openly discussing how Russia can go to war against NATO in the near future. Russian General Staff Military Academy Head Colonel Vladimir Zarudnitsky claimed in a recent article in the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) journal Military Thought that the war in Ukraine could escalate into a large-scale war in Europe and that the end of hostilities in Ukraine will not lead to the end of confrontation between the West and Russia.[6]

Okay, does that make any sense?  "The end of hostilities in Ukraine will not lead to the end of confrontation between the West and Russia."?  Which seems to imply the Russians are considering some kind of "end"...which would be what?  What would it be that one might think would "lead to the end of confrontation"?
I think it is possible that the Russians are beginning to think about some "end" that would lead (unexpectedly)
to "confrontation" (not war), obviously they think they can get some deal where they hold on to some big chunk of Ukraine which implies they have implicitly given up on whatever their real project was (which I think nobody knows since as soon as they failed to overrun Ukraine they failed to come up with some other objective).

Anyway, so now I think they are actually trying to drive Ukraine to the negotiating table rather than trying to overrun the whole country.  I think Macron can see this shift and is implying in turn that there is some implicit stop line where France at least will intervene.  This is actually kind of round-about way of implying some kind of ceasefire line, I think.

Anyway, I doubt the Russians are actually interested in pounding on Ukraine for very much longer.  I think we are seeing their last big push right about now.  Of course, I've been wrong every time about this war. 

[Uberhaus]

I feel your frustration Judge and I've had this conversation hundreds of times this last year with republican coworkers, and the sentiment that Jar is saying is very real.  Americans are split on Ukraine.  Some feel we've done enough, and the 10s of billions should have been enough.  The average American doesn't understand the lesson of Neville Chamberland.  Many feel, we'll wait till they cross article 5. Personally, I'm all for sending more support to keep Ukraine in the fight, but I'm alone in the circles I frequent.  I see more reaction from people about freeing gaza then helping Ukraine. 

It's unfortunate, but remember, a Korean War frozen conflict ending is a marginal win for Ukraine.  If they survive, that's a win, Sweeden and Finland in Nato = win. 

If the war freezes tomorrow, it's a win for Ukraine.  Frozen conflict at a DMZ seemed to work well for south Korea, they are thriving and I see that working for Ukraine.

I know the sentiment is russia will build up and attack again, but Ukraine will be in a better position too. 

I will say avdivka was a gut check to Ukraine, and like someone mentioned above, where's the mandatory all citizens report for mobilization to the military ?  It seems quite clear there's a manpower issue in Ukraine.  Thinking that western tech will save the day is as false as hitler thinking panthers would win kursk.  This war is soley about who has more men and unlimited artillery, who ever maintains that wins.  Welcome to the Somme 2024.

Putin is very much hoping for the collapse of NATO or failing that will be willing to test NATO's resolve if he has some level of success in Ukraine.  As to the war, it is being described more and more as trench warfare combined with a high tech arms race to deploy and counter drones which can spot and hit everything.  Ukraine can no longer use its Bayraktar drones as the Russians have effectively countered them with EW and AD. 
https://www.businessinsider.com/turkeys-bayraktar-tb2-drones-ineffective-ukraine-war-2023-5?op=1

[GDS_Starfury]

I can see where russia grinds itself out over the next few months, military aid finally arrives en mass from the west on Ukraine can at least retake whats been lost over the last two months.  thats my minimum short term hope.