Greece Votes Communist

[airboy]

Greece voted the Syriza Party into power on Sunday.  The party has lots of Marxists and neo-Marxists.

Their key platform elements are:
a] Greece keeps the Euro
b] but..... Greece does not have to pay back its debt
c] or........ abide by the terms of creditors in the EU for additional loans.
d] and....... Greece ends its austerity programs

Lots of governments and individuals bought lots of Greek bonds after it went to the Euro.  In previous bailouts, all of the privately held Greek bonds were effectively defaulted.  The only Greek public debt that had to be repaid before was that held by banks & other governments.  Now the Greeks don't want to pay back that debt either.

In the past when people stupidly bought Greek government bonds, Greece inevitably defaulted or debased their currency (which are close to the same thing).  But with Greece on the Euro it is not possible to simply print more Drachmas as had been done in the past.

I'm guessing that Greece will at minimum be forced to leave the Euro within the next 12 months - unless the Germans and Scandinavia are dumb enough to give the Greeks a bunch more money.

There is speculation that if Greece defaults and leaves the EU that Spain will not be far behind.  France and Italy are a bit further back in the line of potential defaulting nations - but who knows.

[endfire79]

Shaking at head at the whole mess.  I haven't had time to talk to family over there, but I know ours is like most families - completely split politically down the middle, left & right.  One of my uncles was in the PASOK (left-wing) parties at the municipal level.  The others were more ND (Nea Demokratia, center-right).  I cringe at having to wade into the debates. I hope  my wife & I can travel there and visit family later one when our baby is a few months old, without ending up in a political firestorm at the dinner table (babies usually make everyone happy!)

I never invested money (other than spending as a tourist) there after how I saw business was done years ago, it's too ridiculous.  Having that insight, I  know not to invest, but most probably don't and they got burned. 

Syriza is a coalition of the the far-left, radical left parties.  The actual Communist party in Greece is Kappa Kappa Epsilon (KKE), and those guys are just fruits.  I think the younger people who could not find jobs, but had some education and means were able to immigrate and work elsewhere, but there are a lot that like it there, and stay. 

The people there can vote for whoever they want, but Germany can decide to stop paying for Greece's mess (I think Merkel knows that).

[Gusington]

If Greece, Italy and Spain leave the Euro in the next few years that sounds a lot like a deepening of the North/South European divide, of haves and have nots.

[LongBlade]

It's the beginning of the end of the EU.

The wealth axis of the EU can be drawn by a line from Paris to Berlin. (Excepting the UK and Switzerland) you can pretty much draw a series of concentric ovals around that line and get a reasonably accurate reduction in wealth the further from that line you go. When they unified currencies they pretty much guaranteed the poorer members would struggle economically.

[airboy]

A bunch of Greek bonds come due in the next 90 days if I'm remembering what I read in the Wall St. Journal correctly.  The Greek government does not have the cash to pay the interest due and roll over the current debt.

So one of three things is going to happen.  Germany and Northern Europe cave and give big concessions to Greece and effectively continue to finance their spending.  Two, Germany and Northern Europe refuse to budge and Greece goes bankrupt and leaves the Euro (if not the EU) or Three - some compromise between the first two options is reached.

This is further complicated that if Greece withdraws from the Euro and repays in Drachma, then the capitalization of some big EU banks may fail.

Germany, Sweden, Norway, and Denmark are the deciders - especially Germany.  The only thing Greece can do is refuse to pay.  Its not like Greece has the financial ability to repay their loans or the financial strength to renegotiate their terms.

I will say this.  A clearly established axiom in finance is if something cannot continue forever - then eventually it will fail.  Greece has improved their financial standing nationally at a very high cost over the last couple of years.  But if Greece is unwilling to accept the continued pain - either Germany et al will further bail them out or Greece is off the Euro.  Greece cannot print Euros and they don't have the cash to repay the debt that is due if they break their current lending agreements.  After all, Greece has already defaulted on something like 48% of their original debt load (all private holders of Greek government debt) and now they want even more debt forgiveness.

[Gusington]

What is the chance of Germany cutting Greece off?

[GDS_Starfury]

they should but I hope they dont.

[jejo68]

they should but I hope they dont.

Why ?
Fuck greece. And EU too btw.

[jejo68]

Greece voted the Syriza Party into power on Sunday.  The party has lots of Marxists and neo-Marxists.

Their key platform elements are:
a] Greece keeps the Euro
b] but..... Greece does not have to pay back its debt
c] or........ abide by the terms of creditors in the EU for additional loans.
d] and....... Greece ends its austerity programs

Lots of governments and individuals bought lots of Greek bonds after it went to the Euro.  In previous bailouts, all of the privately held Greek bonds were effectively defaulted.  The only Greek public debt that had to be repaid before was that held by banks & other governments.  Now the Greeks don't want to pay back that debt either.

In the past when people stupidly bought Greek government bonds, Greece inevitably defaulted or debased their currency (which are close to the same thing).  But with Greece on the Euro it is not possible to simply print more Drachmas as had been done in the past.

I'm guessing that Greece will at minimum be forced to leave the Euro within the next 12 months - unless the Germans and Scandinavia are dumb enough to give the Greeks a bunch more money.

There is speculation that if Greece defaults and leaves the EU that Spain will not be far behind.  France and Italy are a bit further back in the line of potential defaulting nations - but who knows.

It actually goes further then that.
In their program it states amongst other Things:
Public Buildings, banks and churches are to be used to shelter homeless.
Banks must be nationalised
Nationalise all sectors of strategic importance, ie airports, mail, Water etc
Nationalise private hospitals
Close all foreign bases and withdrawel from NATO

And the list goes on, though these thing on the list somehow was pushed in the background the closer to the election you got  :)

[JasonPratt]

Close all foreign bases and withdrawel from NATO

"Man, our financial situation sux."

"I know! Let's vote for the people saying our nation just doesn't have to pay back any debts now or later, and also shut down one of the biggest income-generating systems!"

"Eureka!"

[Gusington]

The new Greek gov't really wants out of NATO?

[LongBlade]

The new Greek gov't really wants out of NATO?

These are Commie fruit loops. They probably have lingering sympathies with their fading memories of the USSR.

[endfire79]

SYRIZA web page describing what they are: 
http://www.syriza.gr/page/who-we-are.html#.VMg9gGjF98F


I'd like to read the whole thing in Greek with my dad this weekend if I get a chance.  There's more at the link, but I got the idea after the first few paragraphs.

From the SYRIZA web page. 
1st congress of SYRIZA, July 2013.   Note this is about a year and a half ago.

http://www.syriza.gr/article/id/53894/The-political-resolution-of-the-1st-congress-of-SYRIZA.html#.VMg8Q2jF98E

13.28.    We promote integration into the international scene through an independent, multidimensional, and peaceful foreign policy founded on equal cooperation, national independence, and protection of our country's national-territorial integrity. Greece is not only a European country but also a Balkan and a Mediterranean country, in close vicinity to sources of permanent tension in the Middle East. This complex reality spells danger but also offers opportunities. Bonds of friendship and good-neighborly relations with all countries on the basis of respect for the borders and sovereign rights, and cordial relations with progressive movements and progressive governments all over the world can be a protective shield against the extremely precarious international situation, but also an opportunity for peaceful active intervention in cases of international tension and conflict. The guidelines of our foreign policy are: support on the Republic of Cyprus for the settlement of the Cypriot problem, respect for international conventions and relevant UN resolutions, withdrawal from NATO, closure of all foreign military bases, termination of military cooperation with Israel, which may breed danger of military involvement of Greece in the Middle East conflicts, and the application of the principle "no Greek soldier at war fronts outside Greece's border". The struggle for peace and nuclear disarmament is of top priority for SYRIZA and it is closely related to the struggle for democracy.


The introductory speech of their leader back in 2013.  It's funny but a lot of people here would mix up my family name with his.

http://www.syriza.gr/article/id/54588/Introductory-speech-of-the-President-of-the-Parliamentary-Group-of-SYRIZA-Alexis-Tsipras-at-the-1st-Congress-of-SYRIZA.html#.VMg952jF98E

[Gusington]

^I didn't know you were Greek...

Maybe it wouldn't be so bad if they did leave NATO. They would be a good doorstop against an increasingly ornery Turkey. But I wonder if Greece left NATO, would that push Turkey closer to the West again instead of the drifting they have been doing the last few years...

[endfire79]

^  Yes, from my dad's side.  He came here in 1956.  His side of the family is still mostly over there.


How about that - the new finance minister was previously working at Valve overseeing the Steam Market.

http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/greeces-new-finance-minister-yanis-varoufakis-valves-former-steam-market-economist-1485336