Russia's War Against Ukraine

[Windigo]

I'm trying really hard not to get my hopes up.  If, in fact, the Russian Army is mutinying, that is great news.  I do wonder what might push Russia to start using tactical nukes in an effort to salvage the situation?

As much as I rejoice at the current news, I still worry about the future.

I feel the same way. However, I am not certain that any tactical nukes used would be against military targets. Soviet mindset seems to thinks civilian targets are fairgame.

[Gusington]

I've been worried about nuclear weapons all along :/

[SirAndrewD]

I've been worried about nuclear weapons all along :/

It's a legit concern.  A lot of the talking heads in the Russian press are pounding the table and doubling down.  Quite a bit of "Lets quit messing around and declare real war" talk. 

Medvedev was shouting for mobilization and escalation and said they at this point would accept nothing short of the total capitulation of the Kyiv "regime".

Komsomolskaya Pravda reported as fact that there were no Ukrainian forces in the northern offensive, but they were instead NATO forces in Ukrainian uniform.

Most of this is blowing smoke of course.  The Russians always respond to defeat with big talk and increased threats.  The same were said back when the Moskva was sunk.  Still if its true that front line forces are considering independent surrender, all bets could be off. 

However, also of consideration about the surrender issue.  AP reported that Ukrainian forces right now are having trouble having the capacity to actually take prisoners. 

[Gusington]

Who knows if that last bit about prisoners is actually propaganda as well, from the Ukrainian side...just to make it easier and kill everything Russian. Who could blame them?

I fear a Hitler 1945-style unleashing of terror weapons (but nuclear-tipped) at Ukraine (maybe other places) out of simple spite and insanity, both of which are in ample supply in Russia.

[FarAway Sooner]

I've been worried about nuclear weapons all along :/

However, also of consideration about the surrender issue.  AP reported that Ukrainian forces right now are having trouble having the capacity to actually take prisoners.

Yeah, I've heard the Ukrainian government state that they are prepared for a prisoner exchange, but I'm sure that the Russians will find reasons to delay and complicate that.  I wonder, if it gets to a certain point, whether some neutral NATO country (e.g., Denmark or Spain) might offer to house the Russian prisoners temporarily? 

It could be portrayed as a humanitarian gesture, but that doesn't mean that the Russians would buy it.  Their command seems very unconcerned with how this war affects their soldiers on the ground.

[Gusington]

If I were a Russian soldier I would beg to be taken prisoner, if it was actually happening, and then sent to Denmark or Spain.

[nelmsm]

Wonder how many would refuse repatriation if they got sent to a neutral country, or even stayed in Ukraine for that matter.

[SirAndrewD]

I'd go get captured so I could get sent to Spain for the winter.

[FarAway Sooner]

That's kind of what I'm wondering.

Denmark in the winter is... rainy. 

[GDS_Starfury]

this would be nice.  <:-)

[Uberhaus]

Gwynne Dyer is talking about the collapse of the Russian empire.  https://lfpress.com/opinion/columnists/dyer-putin-and-the-end-of-europes-last-empire

That's where the popular confusion in Russia comes from. Because the Communists claimed to be "anti-imperialist," and even abstained from using Russian nationalist tropes until Stalin's time, it was easy for Russians to think the Soviet Union was all the same "homeland." But the subject peoples noticed.

When Gorbachev largely abandoned the threat of force to keep the empire together, non-Russian nationalities took that as a signal they could leave. And their departure really wasn't "the greatest geopolitical disaster of the 20th century" (as Putin claims); it was the final act in the dismantling of Europe's empires.

Of course the subject peoples left. Some colonial populations were radically different from the Russians, like the Muslim "republics" of Central Asia. Some seemed quite similar to outsiders – Ukrainians and Russians, for example – but their real historical grievances were as deep and irreconcilable as those between the Irish and the English.

And US General Ben Hodges is saying to prepare for the collapse of Russia. https://ca.rogers.yahoo.com/news/collapse-russia-general-ukraine-123952649.html

Hodges told Times Radio on Monday: "We may be looking at the collapse of the Russian Federation as it is over the next four or five years.

"We were not prepared for the collapse of the Soviet Union [in 1991]. We need to be prepared for this possibility."

Explaining why Russia could break up, he said: "The military has been exposed, the massive amounts of corruption I think are going to become increasingly intolerable for Russian citizens.
"The two key pillars of their industry, energy export and arms export, I think both of them are going to be suffering."

Referencing Ukraine's recent territorial gains against Russian president Vladimir Putin's forces, Hodges said: "The Russians have collapsed in so many places because they're exhausted, their logistics are exhausted, their officers have been killed.

I think Russia will lose Chechnya and Dagestan, Ingushetia, and Kabardino-Balkaria, probably other non Caucus republics, in the long run.

[Uberhaus]

It would be deserved, but western weapons like HIMARS won't be used against targets in Russia. https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraine-hasnt-used-himars-strike-russian-territory-2022-07-08/

The United States started providing the key precision rocket weapon system to Ukraine last month after receiving assurances from Kyiv that it would not use them to hit targets inside Russian territory, a potentially escalatory move that could broaden the conflict.

[GDS_Starfury]

 :DD

https://twitter.com/i/status/1569455628049063938

[Gusington]

If Russia breaks up it will be the exact opposite result of what Putin was gunning for when he started this. Perhaps karma is real.

[GDS_Starfury]