Russia's War Against Ukraine

[MengJiao]

good article

https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2022/02/28/world-war-iii-already-there-00012340

  Seems to cover the situation very well.

[Jarhead0331]

^Disagree.

NATO opening its airspace to Ukrainian aircraft actively engaged in combat with Russia would be madness and totally unjustifiable under the circumstances in my view. It is as if you are suggesting that NATO should purposefully goad Russia into a situation that would require an invocation of Article 5. The purpose of Article 5 is for it to be used as a shield, not as a sword, as you are suggesting. You are trying to weaponize a purely defensive provision of an alliance to which Ukraine is not even a member.

I don't concern myself with all the tough talk and characterizations of Putin. I concern myself only with facts and consequences. Based upon both, the EU, NATO and other civilized nations can and should respond, but twisting our military defense commitments in order to use them to escalate or trigger a larger war is an outrageous suggestion and I am glad that thus far, it does not seem that those in leadership roles are seeing this situation through such an aggressive and unlawful lens.

I defer to your legal knowledge and expertise.

For the record, I appreciate your opinion and I agree with it from a standpoint of emotion. I truly feel for the people of Ukraine and I have been very moved and inspired by their resistance. Russia may have legitimate security interests that led it down the road to war, but the invasion is wrong. Unquestionably. However, from the practical perspective guided by international law and a strong incentive to limit the destruction and loss of life caused by this war, I think a much more calculated, measured and cautious response is required. There is simply too much at stake.

[ArizonaTank]

Seeing stories of low Russian morale.

-Young conscripts deliberately punching holes in their gas tanks so they don't have to advance.

-An entire platoon sized unit just "walked off into the woods," leaving their vehicles parked.

-Russian troops surrendering without a fight.

-Highly risk averse tactics.

Very had to tell if any of this is accurate. Even if true, are these just isolated incidents? Or are there pervasive morale problems? The next week should tell.

[Jarhead0331]

good article

https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2022/02/28/world-war-iii-already-there-00012340

  Seems to cover the situation very well.

I'm not moved. She seems to contradict herself quite a bit.

"Putin believes might makes right..." but "he can be stopped by companies deciding to not do business with Russia"...but "Putin will use nuclear weapons if we don't head him off"...but "we're already fighting World War III"...etc.

How the hell is crushing the Russian economy going to prevent Putin's use of nuclear weapons and "end" World War 3, that according to her, has already started? 

[JasonPratt]

"Sir, we suddenly cannot afford to launch the nuclear shells!"  :timeout:

A little more seriously (and more to the point of the economic strikes), I suspect at this point only the Russian mafia can save Russia and the world.  :hide:

[MengJiao]

good article

https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2022/02/28/world-war-iii-already-there-00012340

  Seems to cover the situation very well.

I'm not moved. She seems to contradict herself quite a bit.

"Putin believes might makes right..." but "he can be stopped by companies deciding to not do business with Russia"...but "Putin will use nuclear weapons if we don't head him off"...but "we're already fighting World War III"...etc.

How the hell is crushing the Russian economy going to prevent Putin's use of nuclear weapons and "end" World War 3, that according to her, has already started?

  As I read it, given there's no logical end to Putin's supposed desire to overwhelm all of his opponents no matter what, then stopping
him with the minimum of force, say in Ukraine or
say with crushing the Russian economy or both, is a relatively safe and even persuasive economy of force.  Stopping him as early as possible and as
completely as possible would seem to
have many advantages over leaving him to pick his next targets at leisure (a slow-motion world war III in effect).  If he is allowed to simply
grind on and on, things are likely
to just get worse and worse with fewer and fewer options for both sides and nobody really wants that, probably not even Putin.

[acctingman]

So, I'm not into politics like most of you are here, but my uninformed politically uneducated mind is asking....."why doesn't someone take him out"?  :-\

[SirAndrewD]

So, I'm not into politics like most of you are here, but my uninformed politically uneducated mind is asking....."why doesn't someone take him out"?  :-\

Mostly because overthrowing/murdering world leaders isn't usually as easy or clean as it is in a technothriller.   

Putin's spent decades building up a bullwark of support among the Oligarchy in Moscow.  It's going to take a lot to put enough cracks in his castle that he's in danger. 

Fortunately his adventure in the Ukraine might be just the first step to breaking the house of cards if it goes badly enough for him.

[MengJiao]

So, I'm not into politics like most of you are here, but my uninformed politically uneducated mind is asking....."why doesn't someone take him out"?  :-\

Mostly because overthrowing/murdering world leaders isn't usually as easy or clean as it is in a technothriller.   

   Maybe it used to be easier.  That doesn't stop people from trying to set it up with "decapitation" strikes or the 4000 assassins Putin sent after Zelensky.  It does happen moderately often though...Anwar Sadat springs to mind.

[Gusington]

The West could take out Putin but I'm sure he has done extremely extensive succession planning that goes very deep - and God knows what would replace him.

[SirAndrewD]

   Maybe it used to be easier.  That doesn't stop people from trying to set it up with "decapitation" strikes or the 4000 assassins Putin sent after Zelensky.  It does happen moderately often though...Anwar Sadat springs to mind.

It's harder when you're going after someone that's established in a great power.

I mean, sure, we could put Putin on a kill list and mobilize assassins to get him, but, do you think that'd stay secret?  What kind of escalation would that bring?  That's a far sight farther than a no fly zone.

It's one thing for the powerful to kill the weak, like Putin's trying to do with Zelensky.  It's another for great powers to try to take out the other guy's head and not start a war. Even then, it's not always so simple.  Axios reported just today that an attempt on Zelensky failed.

A Sadat like event would be the preference.  Or a lone Russian with the will.  With the former, Putin's still not to the point where the Oligarchs and Army are ready to take that kind of step.  It could get there, but it's not realistic right now. 

In the latter, well, it's increasingly hard to kill the leader of a major power that resides in a stable country with good security.  Sure, you always have the power of the motivated lone gunman, but that's a roll of the dice more than anything. 

To that end, if we're holding out for someone to take Putin off the board, I think we'll be waiting a while.   And even if he is taken out, what replaces him?  I for one am plenty nervous about the worlds second largest nuclear arsenal residing in a country that has a sudden catastrophic power vacuum.

[Jarhead0331]

I for one am plenty nervous about the worlds second largest nuclear arsenal residing in a country that has a sudden catastrophic power vacuum.

Hate to be the bearer of bad news, but it is widely accepted that Russia does, in fact, possess the first largest nuclear arsenal on the planet. But, at that yield, who is really counting warheads anyway?

[steve58]

Ukraine is in the fight for their lives, so what do they do?  Have a postage stamp creation contest. :o   Liking the one of Putin getting his a** smacked \m/

[al_infierno]

Holy hell, that baby Putin one is hilarious!     O0

[SirAndrewD]

Hate to be the bearer of bad news, but it is widely accepted that Russia does, in fact, possess the first largest nuclear arsenal on the planet. But, at that yield, who is really counting warheads anyway?

Yeah, I forgot about that.  But as you say, both sides have more than enough to get the job done on getting us to a Mad Max LARP.