Russia's War Against Ukraine

[steve58]

I agree, freedom of information is our most powerful weapon besides more javelins to the Ukrainians.

I like the starlink idea.  If that doesn't work we need to find a way to pump internet from the west into Russia.  Let them see what's going on in instagram, tik tok, and Facebook.

Getting Starlink to Ukrainians and Russians is one thing; keeping them alive while/after using it is another. 

SpaceX CEO Elon Musk yesterday warned that Starlink user terminals in Ukraine could be targeted by Russia and advised users to take precautions. "Important warning: Starlink is the only non-Russian communications system still working in some parts of Ukraine, so probability of being targeted is high. Please use with caution," Musk tweeted.

When asked for specific advice, Musk said people in Ukraine should turn Starlink on only when it's needed, place the antenna "as far away from people as possible," and "place light camouflage over [the] antenna to avoid visual detection." A thin layer of spray paint would work if there are no metal particles in the paint, he wrote.

One Twitter user asked Musk if Starlink could face a cyberattack from Russia similar to the one that affected Viasat satellite service. Musk responded, "Almost all Viasat Ukraine user terminals were rendered permanently unusable by a Russian cyberattack on day of invasion, so... yes."

https://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/2022/03/elon-musk-high-probability-of-russian-attacks-on-starlink-in-ukraine/

[steve58]

The craziness of this war keeps me bumfuzzled.

U.S. Senate invited to virtually meet with Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy on Saturday

The full U.S. Senate has been invited to meet with Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy on Saturday on Zoom, Fox News has confirmed.

[GDS_Starfury]

guess were going with Reforger 2022!

https://www.army.mil/article/254346/army_prepositioned_stocks_in_europe_activated_to_support_deployment_of_armored_brigade_combat_team

[Gusington]

Wow...when is the civilian version of this truck going to be available?

[Con]

guess were going with Reforger 2022!

https://www.army.mil/article/254346/army_prepositioned_stocks_in_europe_activated_to_support_deployment_of_armored_brigade_combat_team

I hope that they maintained the tires better than the ruskis
https://www.defenceconnect.com.au/land-amphibious/9612-poorly-made-chinese-tires-a-new-theory-on-russia-s-slow-advance

[Gusington]

Ukrainian President Zelensky really is winning the propaganda war:

"This is not just Russia's invasion of Ukraine," Zelensky said on Sunday. "This is the beginning of a war against Europe, against European structures, against democracy, against basic human rights, against a global order of law, rules, and peaceful coexistence."

[MengJiao]

guess were going with Reforger 2022!

https://www.army.mil/article/254346/army_prepositioned_stocks_in_europe_activated_to_support_deployment_of_armored_brigade_combat_team

I hope that they maintained the tires better than the ruskis
https://www.defenceconnect.com.au/land-amphibious/9612-poorly-made-chinese-tires-a-new-theory-on-russia-s-slow-advance

  I feel like there's a kind of deep, even Aesopian, moral here along the lines of "for the lack of a nail" (to shoe a horse etc. etc.).  Or just a good sales/caveat (emptor) point: don't buy Chinese tires.
And if you are going to invade Ukraine, especially don't buy Chinese tires and put them on the big trucks that you load with missiles and whatnot.

[FarAway Sooner]

Zelenskiy is winning the propaganda war for sure.  I'm doubtful that he can keep holding off Russian advances for months and months.

I was listening to some experts on Russian news sources talk about this issue today.  There's a major generational disconnect.  Older folks get all their info from state TV.  Younger folks get all their info from the internet--which is now blocked.  They are unlikely to tune in to Soviet State TV as a result, but it'll be interesting to see where they get their info.

We know lots of Russians believe the state TV.  We don't know if that number is 30% or 60% or 90%.  We know from our own experiences that, even when you expose opposing sides on an issue to plentiful and abundant information, people can happily pick whatever news sources they want to believe and ignore the others.

In Chechnya, public opposition to the war there only started to increase after tens of thousands of Russian soldiers started coming home with war stories.  The idea that the Russian people will pivot on this quickly, or that Putin will soon give up his plans to conquer Ukraine, seem low.

This will be a long struggle, I fear.  Unless the Russian military is defeated, the people of Ukraine will pay the highest cost and they will pay it for a LONG time to come.  I think Sweden and Finland will both join NATO within the next 12 months.  It's not like staying out of NATO did crap to help the Ukrainians.

[solops]

I now believe that war with Russia is inevitable. I therefore support all measures to support Ukraine in such a fashion that the conflict does not begin before sufficient deterrent forces can be positioned in the Western Pacific.

[Skoop]

I feel US and Nato are becoming more belligerent and out raged everyday this goes on.  No fly seems insane right now but don't be surprised if west is unanimously clamoring for it by end of next week.  I highly suspect Putin will only nuke if we threaten Russian soil with a land force.

[Skoop]

A2A skirmishes are an act of war, but if we don't attack Russians on the ground or any interdiction and keep it strictly to prevent bombing of cities, I could see something like that in place.  It will take a ton of restraint on our part, and may lead to Russian Air Force attacking nato airfields with cruise missiles, which we could refuse to not respond and escalate, but by end of next week this scenario may be more palatable.

[JasonPratt]

Today's Epic Economist episode focuses on the discussion I've seen some other outlets talking about today and yesterday, on what the global ripple effect of the loss of wheat and other grains will be from the war.

After all, not only will the early Ukrainian crop be affected (obviously), but (less obviously) Russia's own agricultural manpower has been sharply curtailed -- being busy over in Ukraine affecting their agriculture ;) -- along with nations having to decide how much economic warfare they're willing to bite the bullets on (so to speak) by refusing to buy food from Russia.

It's pretty grim when a pro-capitalist economic site starts talking about workers rising up in violent protest to overthrow the governments which, rightly or wrongly, aren't feeding them enough!  :o I was just introducing Mom tonight to the roots of Marxian thought on the connection between socialism, communism, and ultimate world war, and the switch to actively militant Marxian groups in the years leading into WW1.

(Note: the book mentioned at the end is actually a pretty standard Christian end-times prophecy thing, with the hook that it's written by a major importing official from the West Coast if I understand the authorship correctly. I haven't personally read it yet, but while its bona fides on the economic hits might be interesting in that scenario, by all accounts I've seen it's primarily religious evangelism and not economics. Thus I'm not recommending it for further reading on the economic topics per se.)

[JasonPratt]

And if you are going to invade Ukraine, especially don't buy Chinese tires and put them on the big trucks that you load with missiles and whatnot.

"If you're going to overthrow the civil servants of your neighboring country, Mr. Putin, buy American!" -- paraphrasing Harvey Dent from The Dark Knight  >:D

[Silent Disapproval Robot]

Fertilizer is going to be the real bottleneck.  Planting season is coming up very soon and there is a massive shortage of nitrogen, potassium, and potash.  Russia was a significant supplier.  Gonna get ugly really quickly, I think.

[Sir Slash]

I see a, 'Chinese Tire Rule' coming when this war is finally wargamed.  :P