Russia's War Against Ukraine

[steve58]

Saboteurs active in Belarus.

https://redstate.com/streiff/2022/03/19/belarus-rail-lines-carrying-trains-with-supplies-for-the-russian-army-are-being-hit-by-sabotage-attacks-n538248

[MengJiao]

The more insightful analytical sites agree on the following
1 Russia is moving into a defensive attritional war
2 Russias current strung out multi axis advance and confinement to roads is not sustainable for logistics and personnel on an attritional war and they will need to consolidate and pull back.
3 the Russian strategy has been so incoherent and bad that they may not pull back
4 Ukraine can make them suffer in an attritional war but Ukraine also looses. Looses troops, civilians and infrastructure since the only investments that will be made in the Ukraine are weapons systems.
5 national will at home and moral of the army will ultimately decide. It will be 1918 all over again

Con

  Sounds plausible.  In 1914 Four Empires went to war in Eastern Europe.  By 1918, all four were destroyed.  Not very promising for everyone involved this time.

  PS: Maybe the Turks and Ottomans deserve more credit than the average empire since they might be said to have fallen first (Young Turks, 1908) and last (officially in 1922).

[Gusington]

^Good point.

[Uberhaus]

One empire had fallen by 1917, helped along by a certain other Russian mystic, who often interfered in military affairs.  Coincidentally with a name very similar to the present leader.  Also it helped that Imperial Germany sent Lenin from exile with money to foment revolution.

[ArizonaTank]

Report of an "elite" Ukrainian drone unit taking out Russian vehicles at night. Apparently, they are using Elon Musk's Starlink to link drone pilots and drones. Apparently Starlink is providing a stable internet connection where outages might otherwise make it difficult. Sounds like they use mostly small 3 - 5 kg bombs to take out vehicles.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/an-elite-ukrainian-drone-unit-exploits-the-cover-of-night-to-destroy-russian-tanks-and-trucks-while-their-soldiers-sleep-report-says/ar-AAViepy?ocid=msedgntp

[Uberhaus]

I find the BBC's tracking of the war to be informative:  https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-60506682

They generate their maps from UK MOD:  https://twitter.com/defencehq
Institute for the Study of War:  https://www.understandingwar.org/
and American Enterprise Institute's Critical Threats:  https://www.criticalthreats.org/ 

They all agree that the Russian attack has culminated but is preparing for a long war of attrition.  Ukraine has also made successful counterattacks such as in Kherson Oblast near Mykolaiv. 

The Russian military is still making mistakes and are facing very serious manpower problems:

Mar 19, 2022 - Press ISW

Ukrainian forces have defeated the initial Russian campaign of this war. That campaign aimed to conduct airborne and mechanized operations to seize Kyiv, Kharkiv, Odesa, and other major Ukrainian cities to force a change of government in Ukraine. That campaign has culminated. Russian forces continue to make limited advances in some parts of the theater but are very unlikely to be able to seize their objectives in this way. The doctrinally sound Russian response to this situation would be to end this campaign, accept a possibly lengthy operational pause, develop the plan for a new campaign, build up resources for that new campaign, and launch it when the resources and other conditions are ready. The Russian military has not yet adopted this approach. It is instead continuing to feed small collections of reinforcements into an ongoing effort to keep the current campaign alive. We assess that that effort will fail.

Mar 20, 2022 - Press ISW

The Ukrainian General Staff reported for the first time that the Kremlin is preparing its population for a "long war" in Ukraine and implementing increasingly draconian mobilization measures. The General Staff reported the Russian military commissariats of the Kuban, Primorsky Krai, Yaroslavl Oblast, and Ural Federal Districts are conducting covert mobilization measures but are facing widespread resistance.

There are further indications of the manpower problems and more importantly very serious disciplinary problems: https://www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-march-20
A bit long but well worth the read.

The Ukrainian General Staff reported for the first time that the Kremlin is preparing its population for a "long war" in Ukraine and implementing increasingly draconian mobilization measures.[1] The General Staff reported the Russian military commissariats of the Kuban, Primorsky Krai, Yaroslavl Oblast, and Ural Federal Districts are conducting covert mobilization measures but are facing widespread resistance. The General Staff reported the Russian PMC Wagner Group will facilitate the transport of Libyan fighters from LNA leader Khalifa Haftar's forces to Ukraine. The General Staff reported universities in the DNR and LNR are conscripting students above the age of 18 and that most units in the DNR's 1st Army Corps are comprised of the "mobilized population," rather than trained soldiers, and face low morale and equipment shortages. The Ukrainian Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) additionally reported on March 20 that Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu signed an order to prepare to admit Unarmiya (Russian Youth Army, a Kremlin-run military youth organization) personnel aged 17-18 to fight in Ukraine on March 15.[2] The GUR further reported Colonel General Gennady Zhidko, head of the Russian Military-Political Directorate, is in charge of executing the order. The Ukrainian General Staff reported on March 19 that Russian officials "severely reprimanded" the head of the 652nd unit of Information and Psychological Operations for his "weak efforts" and inability to create a "Kherson People's Republic."[3]

Russian forces face mounting casualties among officers and increasingly frequent desertion and insubordination. The Ukrainian Ministry of Defense reported on March 19 that "some [Russian] naval infantry units" (unspecified which, but likely referring to Eastern Military District units deployed to the fighting around Kyiv) have lost up to 90% of their personnel and cannot generate replacements.[4] The Ukrainian General Staff reported at noon local time on March 20 that Ukrainian forces wounded the commander of the 346th Independent Spetsnaz Brigade and claimed that Ukrainian forces killed the commanders of the 331st VDV Regiment, 247th VDV Regiment, and the 6th Tank Regiment (90th Tank Division, CMD) at unspecified times and locations.[5] The General Staff reported the Russian Black Sea Fleet is replacing 130 insubordinate soldiers in the 810th Naval Infantry Brigade with paratroopers from the 7th Airborne Assault Division – a measure highly likely to cause greater unit cohesion problems.[6] The General Staff additionally reported that Russian forces are increasingly using "outdated and partially defective equipment" to replace combat losses.[7]

The Ukrainian MoD reported that forced mobilization in the DNR has demoralized Russian proxy forces, with many refusing to fight and accusing Russian leadership of forcing them into combat to find Ukrainian troop positions. The Ukrainian Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) reported the number of insubordinate Russian personnel who are refusing combat orders is "sharply increasing" in the Kherson and Mykolayiv oblasts on March 20.[8] The Ukrainian General Staff reported the Russian military commandant office in Belgorod City is investigating 10 Russian servicemen of 138th Motor Rifle Brigade who refused to continue fighting in Kharkiv and agitated for other Russian servicemen to abandon their posts.[9]

It looks like a push in the right direction might end with a repeat of the 1917 mutinies.  Russia doesn't need to be dismembered but it does need to be stopped from killing its brothers and sisters. 

[Uberhaus]

Report of an "elite" Ukrainian drone unit taking out Russian vehicles at night. Apparently, they are using Elon Musk's Starlink to link drone pilots and vehicles. Apparently Starlink is providing a stable internet connection where outages might otherwise make it difficult. Sounds like they use mostly small 3 - 5 kg bombs to take out vehicles.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/an-elite-ukrainian-drone-unit-exploits-the-cover-of-night-to-destroy-russian-tanks-and-trucks-while-their-soldiers-sleep-report-says/ar-AAViepy?ocid=msedgntp

Russia is using a fully autonomous drone, the Kalashnikov ZALA Aero KUB-BLA in Ukraine.  https://thebulletin.org/2022/03/russia-may-have-used-a-killer-robot-in-ukraine-now-what/  It may not have been used autonomously, but they are fielding one that is capable of not requiring human control.

[Uberhaus]

Droning on.

Fukuyama (yes that Fukuyama) writes about drones in 2021, most especially the Bayraktar TB2 that Ukraine is using:  https://www.americanpurpose.com/blog/fukuyama/droning-on/

The effectiveness of these weapons was first demonstrated beyond Turkey's borders in Syria in March 2020, where in retaliation for a Russian-backed Syrian attack that killed 36 Turkish soldiers, Ankara launched a devastating attack on Syrian armored forces that were moving into Idlib province along the Turkish border. Video footage showed them destroying one Syrian armored vehicle after another, including more than 100 tanks, armored personnel carriers, and air defense systems.

Footage accredited to al-Jazeera  https://twitter.com/ajmubasher/status/1233881050809602053

The Syrian offensive was brought to a complete halt, and Idlib province secured as a haven for refugees. Then in May, Turkish drones were used to attack an air base in Libya used by UAE-backed Libyan National Army of General Khalifa Haftar, which ended the LNA's offensive against Tripoli. Finally, during the Nagorno-Karabakh war in September, Turkish drones intervening for Azerbaijan against Armenia destroyed an estimated 200 tanks, 90 other armored vehicles, and 182 artillery pieces, forcing the latter to withdraw from the territory. This has become a point of nationalist pride in Turkey, as this pro-Azeri video suggests.

Oh, if you're interested Fukuyama says that history will truly end this time  :P  https://www.americanpurpose.com/articles/preparing-for-defeat/

Putin will not survive the defeat of his army. He gets support because he is perceived to be a strongman; what does he have to offer once he demonstrates incompetence and is stripped of his coercive power?

Not all Fukuyama's fault but my personal belief is that the belief in the triumph of liberalism after 1991 did nothing to prepare for the shocks of September 11th, the 'little green men' of 2014 running around in EMR battle dress with PKMs and VSS Vintorez, nor for the war in Ukraine presently.

[Uberhaus]

Bosnia and Herzegovina has the right to decide whether or not to join NATO, Russian Ambassador to Bosnia and Herzegovina Igor Kalbukhov has said, warning, however, that Moscow reserves the right to respond to such a possibility.
"If (Bosnia and Herzegovina) decides to be a member of any alliance, that is an internal matter. Our response is a different matter. Ukraine's example shows what we expect. Should there be any threat, we will respond," Kalabukhov told the FTV entity broadcaster.

those fucking morons cant even take out a country on their border no less another country thats surrounded by NATO.  wtf are they smoking in the kremlin?

The Serbs (even though in NATO Partnership for Peace) are close to Russia  https://news.yahoo.com/serbs-march-support-mother-russia-072305935.html  but I don't think they want to raise the ire of EU and UK and or NATO. 

[GDS_Starfury]

then their leaders are smart enough to sit down and stfu.

[steve58]

The way they were shaking that thing, I sure hope it was a dud. :timeout:

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10633887/Unexploded-Russian-missile-Ukrainian-kitchen-bomb-disposal-crew-wiggle.html?ito=social-twitter_mailonline

[Sir Slash]

 :DD  "For Disposal of Unexploded Bombs and Missiles, Call 'Billy-Bob's Bomb Disposal'. On The Job 24 Hours A-Day Until This Morning".  :hide:

[Uberhaus]

Looks like it might be the 9M55K from the Smerch MRLS.  The submunitions are long gone. 

Looks like the smaller Grad 122mm Tornado-G BM-21

Could be worse.

[Pete Dero]

A 96-year-old concentration camp survivor was killed Friday after his home in Kharkiv was damaged by Russians.  After surviving the Holocaust at concentration camps in Buchenwald, Peenemünde, Mittelbau-Dora and Bergen-Belsen, Boris Romantschenko advocated throughout his life for Nazi crimes to be recognized and properly memorialized.

https://twitter.com/Buchenwald_Dora/status/1505876638076215299?cxt=HHwWhoC9gd20-eUpAAAA

Romantschenko served as the vice-president of the International Committee Buchenwald-Dora, a historic organization that helps Holocaust survivors preserve memories about the struggle against fascist regimes, only to be killed by an army led by a fascist.

[Gusington]

Horrible.