Russia's War Against Ukraine

[GDS_Starfury]

just a grim thought but how much can some nuclear winter offset global warming?

[al_infierno]

Ukraine Just Captured Part Of One Of Russia's Most Capable Electronic Warfare Systems

As one former DoD civil servant put it: "Ukraine now has a whole lot of political leverage to get MIG-29's and SAM's from NATO, whatever the De-escalation factions in DC wants", "The DoD, CIA and NSA have collective boners the size of a Trident submarine thinking about getting their hands on this bit of Russian kit".  https://twitter.com/TrentTelenko/status/1506310039363112961

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/44879/ukraine-just-captured-part-of-one-of-russias-most-capable-electronic-warfare-systems

[Jarhead0331]

and thats where the scores of books Ive read on the subject matter can sometimes go off the rails.
hopefully there are people down the chain of command that can just say no.
hopefully there are other people/groups/forces that can stop it closer to the top.
ultimately people operate on enlightened self interest.  how many in putins circle dont want to die or be remembered as todays war criminal nazis.

There are at least two instances in history where Russian military officers at the tactical level with authority to push the proverbial button, did not, despite great pressure, doctrinal responsibility, and.orders from ranking superiors to do so. These individuals arguably saved the world. So, yes...the common sense and personal courage of men at various points along the chain of command can make it can happen.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stanislav_Petrov

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vasily_Arkhipov

[MengJiao]

just a grim thought but how much can some nuclear winter offset global warming?

  Wikipedia is strong with this one:  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_winter

   The basic answer seems to be: more  winter than a lot of volcanos -- (but here's the good news) less than the impact of a giant Cretaceous (K-T boundary-style) ending asteroid

   The best sections there said:

  2019 saw the publication of two studies on nuclear winter that build on previous modeling and describe new scenarios of nuclear winter from smaller exchanges of nuclear weapons than have been previously simulated.

As in the 2007 study by Robock et al.,[17] a 2019 study by Coupe et al. models a scenario in which 150 Tg of black carbon is released into the atmosphere following an exchange of nuclear weapons between the United States and Russia where both countries use all of the nuclear weapons treaties permit them to.[134] This amount of black carbon far exceeds that which has been emitted in the atmosphere by all volcanic eruptions in the past 1,200 years but is less than the asteroid impact which caused a mass extinction event 66 million years ago.[134] Coupe et al. used the "whole atmosphere community climate model version 4" (WACCM4), which has a higher resolution and is more effective at simulating aerosols and stratospheric chemistry than the ModelE simulation used by Robock et al..[134]

The WACCM4 model simulates that black carbon molecules increase to ten times their normal size when they reach the stratosphere. ModelE did not account for this effect. This difference in black carbon particle size results in a greater optical depth in the WACCM4 model across the world for the first two years after the initial injection due to greater absorption of sunlight in the stratosphere.[134] This will have the effect of increasing stratospheric temperatures by 100K and result in ozone depletion that is slightly greater than ModelE predicted.[134] Another consequence of the larger particle size is accelerating the rate at which black carbon molecules fall out of the atmosphere; after ten years from the injection of black carbon into the atmosphere, WACCM4 predicts 2 Tg will remain, while ModelE predicted 19 Tg.[134]

The 2019 model and the 2007 model both predict significant temperature decreases across the globe, however the increased resolution and particle simulation in 2019 predict a greater temperature anomaly in the first six years after injection but a faster return to normal temperatures. Between a few months after the injection to the sixth year of anomaly, the WACCM4 predicts cooler global temperatures than ModelE, with temperatures more than 20K below normal leading to freezing temperatures during the summer months over much of the northern hemisphere leading to a 90% reduction in agricultural growing seasons in the midlatitudes, including the midwestern United States.[134] WACCM4 simulations also predict a 58% reduction in global annual precipitation from normal levels in years three and four after injection, a 10% higher reduction than predicted in ModelE.[134]

Toon et al. simulated a nuclear scenario in 2025 where India and Pakistan engage in a nuclear exchange in which 100 urban areas in Pakistan and 150 urban areas in India are attacked with nuclear weapons ranging from 15 kt to 100 kt and examined the effects of black carbon released into the atmosphere from airburst-only detonations.[5] The researchers modeled the atmospheric effects if all weapons were 15 kt, 50 kt, and 100 kt, providing a range where a nuclear exchange would likely fall into given the recent nuclear tests performed by both nations. The ranges provided are large because neither India or Pakistan is obligated to provide information on their nuclear arsenals, so their extent remains largely unknown.[5]

Toon et al. assume that either a firestorm or conflagration will occur after each detonation of the weapons, and the amount of black carbon inserted into the atmosphere from the two outcomes will be equivalent and of a profound extent;[5] in Hiroshima in 1945, it is predicted that the firestorm released 1,000 times more energy than was released during the nuclear explosion.[6] Such a large area being burned would release large amounts of black carbon into the atmosphere. The amount released ranges from 16.1 Tg if all weapons were 15 kt or less to 36.6 Tg for all 100 kt weapons.[5] For the 15 kt and 100kt range of weapons, the researchers modeled global precipitation reductions of 15% to 30%, temperature reductions between 4K and 8K, and ocean temperature decreases of 1K to 3K.[5] If all weapons used were 50 kt or more, Hadley cell circulation would be disrupted and cause a 50% decrease in precipitation in the American midwest. Net primary productivity (NPP) for oceans decreases from 10% to 20% for the 15 kt and 100 kt scenarios, respectively, while land NPP decreases between 15% and 30%; particularly affected are midlatitude agricultural regions in the United States and Europe, experiencing 25-50% reductions in NPP.[5] As predicted by other literature, once the black carbon is removed from the atmosphere after ten years, temperatures and NPP will return to normal.[5]

2021
Coupe et al. report the simulation of a El Niño effect lasting several years after six nuclear scenarios ranging from 5 to 150 Tg soot under the CESM-WACCM4 model. They term the change a "Nuclear Niño" and describe various changes in the ocean currents.[135]

[Gusington]

Was just going to post about the two men JH posted above. I hope there are more like them scattered around the Russian nuclear forces right now.

[JasonPratt]

Oh! -- well, huh. I kept hearing that a marine invasion of Odessa was ready to go, and somehow I heard that often enough to think it had gone. This is what I get for doing other things while the news is on, and not paying enough attention to Star's very nice map sources.  O0

Ironically, I'm sure I was focusing only on the places on those maps that Russia had pushed to; and since Odessa wasn't one of those places, I didn't correct my impression of it being invaded!  #:-)  :hide: L:-)

Getting too old to keep up...

[MengJiao]

Oh! -- well, huh. I kept hearing that a marine invasion of Odessa was ready to go, and somehow I heard that often enough to think it had gone. This is what I get for doing other things while the news is on, and not paying enough attention to Star's very nice map sources.  O0

Ironically, I'm sure I was focusing only on the places on those maps that Russia had pushed to; and since Odessa wasn't one of those places, I didn't correct my impression of it being invaded!  #:-)  :hide: L:-)

Getting too old to keep up...

  I have the same problem.  I thought Sumy fell on day one or two, but maybe the Russians still haven't quite gotten there.  I think I'm roughly as confused  about several other regions BUT
I can specify LNR and DNR now so that is some kind of progress.

[Pete Dero]

Oh! -- well, huh. I kept hearing that a marine invasion of Odessa was ready to go, and somehow I heard that often enough to think it had gone. This is what I get for doing other things while the news is on, and not paying enough attention to Star's very nice map sources.  O0

Ironically, I'm sure I was focusing only on the places on those maps that Russia had pushed to; and since Odessa wasn't one of those places, I didn't correct my impression of it being invaded!  #:-)  :hide: L:-)

Getting too old to keep up...

  I have the same problem.  I thought Sumy fell on day one or two, but maybe the Russians still haven't quite gotten there.  I think I'm roughly as confused  about several other regions BUT
I can specify LNR and DNR now so that is some kind of progress.

CNN, BBC and other sources are also reporting about successful Ukrainian counterattacks taking some smaller cities back.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-60506682
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10643119/Ukraine-war-Kyiv-launches-counter-attacks-Russian-invasion-stalled.html

[MengJiao]

Oh! -- well, huh. I kept hearing that a marine invasion of Odessa was ready to go, and somehow I heard that often enough to think it had gone. This is what I get for doing other things while the news is on, and not paying enough attention to Star's very nice map sources.  O0

Ironically, I'm sure I was focusing only on the places on those maps that Russia had pushed to; and since Odessa wasn't one of those places, I didn't correct my impression of it being invaded!  #:-)  :hide: L:-)

Getting too old to keep up...

  I have the same problem.  I thought Sumy fell on day one or two, but maybe the Russians still haven't quite gotten there.  I think I'm roughly as confused  about several other regions BUT
I can specify LNR and DNR now so that is some kind of progress.

CNN, BBC and other sources are also reporting about successful Ukrainian counterattacks taking some smaller cities back.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-60506682
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10643119/Ukraine-war-Kyiv-launches-counter-attacks-Russian-invasion-stalled.html

  I hope this doesn't cause the kind of metaphysical itch that only a few nukes can scratch.

[Jarhead0331]

Congressional report on Russian Nuclear Weapons from March 21, 2022

https://news.usni.org/2022/03/23/report-to-congress-on-russian-nuclear-weapons-4?fbclid=IwAR37FgFzbpfN3wYOyQsvcRM_Z02v8aipYf1v7oPmfz049x5UbCG3EFLpLxc

[Pete Dero]

I hope this doesn't cause the kind of metaphysical itch that only a few nukes can scratch.

I hope for victory but fear the consequence it might bring.
For me, the only possible good way to end this is regime change in Russia.  Maybe 10.000 parents who lost a child might start it.

[JasonPratt]

Only the Russian mafia can save the world now! -- we're living in a CW Arrowverse show...

More seriously, since Zelensky left himself no good room for help appeal as a neutral, his and Putin's best bet would be to work out a 'win' for each of them: officially cede those eastern republics (maybe also their new hinterlands), officially cede the Kuban (not all the Crimea), make a treaty not to join NATO or the EU perhaps since Putin is going to whine and complain about another NATO neighbor being a metaphysical threat to his regime's, uh, "Russia's" existence, as if NATO would use the Ukraine for invading him (which is how he thinks since he'd use the Ukraine that way).

Zelensky gets a political win for stopping the Russian juggernaut in a fashion very embarrassing for the Russians.

[Anguille]

Situation Report

[Jarhead0331]

Some of this footage I have seen and some of it I haven't. I'm posting because you have to just love shirtless Rambo at 3:30.

[Windigo]

I fucking hope not.

Russian President Vladimir Putin spokesman Dmitri Peskov refused Tuesday to say his nation would not use nuclear weapons if it thought Russia could be destroyed.

Peskov said the conditions were consistent with the nations national security concept. "If there's a threat to the very existence of our country, it can be used in accordance with this concept," he stated in response to the question of whether Russia's use of nuclear weapons could be completely ruled out, according to the Russian government-controlled news site TASS."

Russian military doctrine envisions use of nuclear weapons in a first use scenario if it is losing a conventional conflict. Ukraine is exactly the scenario for which this was developed," said Rebekah Koffler, who is a former DIA intelligence officer who specialized in Russia.

"They fear U.S. intervention in Ukraine because they fear we are conventionally superior," she said. "And if they interpret our action as offensive rather than defensive, that is when the viability of Russian statehood would be threatened, in accordance with the Russian national security concept and military doctrine."

I believe that this line of thinking is also why they are not committing a better grade of troops and equipment to the fight in Ukraine. The need to hold back their a-game assets to counter any NATO intervention.