Russia's War Against Ukraine

[GDS_Starfury]

[Gusington]

 ;D

[FarAway Sooner]

I've heard a couple different analysts suggest that, whatever Putin is doing, there must be some kind of internal consistency to it.  We just don't understand the fact set that he's operating with, which makes it awfully hard to predict what he might do next.  That's kinda scary when you realize he has a big nuclear arsenal.

I heard another guy, who was a former CIA Bureau Chief for Russian, say something along the lines of, "I studied Russia every day.  I had some of the most knowledgeable professionals in the world working for me.  I spoke Russian fluently, I'd lived in Russia, and I listened to Russian newscasts every day even when I returned to the US.  Over and over again, I was still astonished at 'the next thing' that Russia did.  Every time, I'd be certain that they'd astonished me so many times that nothing they did could ever surprise me again.  This time, again, I was proven wrong."

I'm not as sure as some of you guys that the Russian Army is on the verge of collapse.  It's possible, but almost anything is possible.

I do wonder whether, at some point, Ukraine starts attacking military targets in Russia with cruise missiles?  I also wonder whether, at some point, Ukrainian sympathizers in Russia don't start doing terrorist things.  The Chechens did that for years after Russia occupied Chechnya, and Chechnya is about 1/10th the size of Ukraine.

[ArizonaTank]

  Well, you'd think they would "declare victory" some time soon, if only to work on reducing the overall damage to the Russian economy and so on.  But is there a "logical" stopping place? 

For the Russians, they likely have an end point in mind.  If they can achieve it is up in the air but there is a way they can "win" and still achieve a lot of their goals in the long term. 

If they can seize and occupy at least some of the major natural gas reserves in Eastern Ukraine, that's a start.   In the south, building a land bridge, securing fresh water sources to help save Crimea from it's massive soil salinization problems and land lock Ukraine would, conceivably give Russia a pretty fair cause to claim a victory and stop. 

Achieving those goals could conceivably wreck Ukraine's economy and stifle it's growth trajectory enough that at least, they'd be unable to continue to be a "threat" to Russian regional dominance.  Maybe even with pressure and time the Russians could effect some kind of covert regime change if the Ukrainian economy falters enough.

All speculation though.  But I'd wager that these are the ideal war goals for Russia to achieve and if they do achieve them, they will end their "special operation". 

The issue of course is that the Ukrainians have something to say about it.  Every day they get stronger and the Russians get weaker.  We've already seen they now have at least some armor superiority over the Russians in numbers.  Manpower is likely also starting to tilt in favor of the Ukrainians.  Morale is totally on their side by this stage. 

The Russians would probably have to at least partly mobilize reserves in order to bring fresh troops and reserve equipment in to guarantee a victory.  They don't seem willing to do that.  They want to win on the cheap and they're stuck on that path now.  Putin can't hide the damage if he mobilizes the reserves, and it'd take months to get them in fighting shape anyway.  This isn't WWI where the European powers had turned mobilization into an art form.  As was said before, we don't even know if the Russian reserve equipment is even combat capable and how much if can ever even be made so again. 

The most dangerous thing for Russia is that they are fighting a "Special Operation" with limited commitment.  Ukraine is fighting their Great Patriotic War with every ounce of their manpower and national will.   That calculus is extremely hard to overcome.

We'll know by May 9.  I imagine whatever scenario exists by then save the complete rout of the Russian Army, Putin will declare victory at May Day. 

The problem for the Russians is that even if they're willing to quit, are the Ukrainians?

I don't know about there being a "logical" stopping place for the Russians. In the history of warfare over the last two centuries, national sentiment has played such a large role in almost every war. It is very hard to back out of war because to do so makes all the sacrifice up to that point worthless. Also add in the very bad blood between Ukraine and Russia now, and I think that only some sort of moral collapse and/or national exhaustion will see the end of it. My guess is that it happens on the Russian side first. But frighteningly, that breaking point might be months or a year or more away. I am thinking Germany in late 1918. 

[GDS_Starfury]

sounds like a job for GusTeamSeal

[GDS_Starfury]

the latest maps.

https://twitter.com/JominiW/status/1516276200540459016

[Gusington]

You rang?

Ukrainians have already attacked Russian targets with missiles, in the aforementioned Belgorod, etc.

[GDS_Starfury]

that wasnt you starting fires in sensitive locations?  :arr:

[Gusington]

^Clearly Herve borrowed my favorite jacket and never brought it back - RIP

[fran]

Did not know of this salvage ship, laid down in 1912!

In use to recover items from Moskva.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_salvage_ship_Kommuna

[MengJiao]

  Well, you'd think they would "declare victory" some time soon, if only to work on reducing the overall damage to the Russian economy and so on.  But is there a "logical" stopping place? 

For the Russians, they likely have an end point in mind.  If they can achieve it is up in the air but there is a way they can "win" and still achieve a lot of their goals in the long term. 

If they can seize and occupy at least some of the major natural gas reserves in Eastern Ukraine, that's a start.   In the south, building a land bridge, securing fresh water sources to help save Crimea from it's massive soil salinization problems and land lock Ukraine would, conceivably give Russia a pretty fair cause to claim a victory and stop. 

Achieving those goals could conceivably wreck Ukraine's economy and stifle it's growth trajectory enough that at least, they'd be unable to continue to be a "threat" to Russian regional dominance.  Maybe even with pressure and time the Russians could effect some kind of covert regime change if the Ukrainian economy falters enough.

All speculation though.  But I'd wager that these are the ideal war goals for Russia to achieve and if they do achieve them, they will end their "special operation". 

The issue of course is that the Ukrainians have something to say about it.  Every day they get stronger and the Russians get weaker.  We've already seen they now have at least some armor superiority over the Russians in numbers.  Manpower is likely also starting to tilt in favor of the Ukrainians.  Morale is totally on their side by this stage. 

The Russians would probably have to at least partly mobilize reserves in order to bring fresh troops and reserve equipment in to guarantee a victory.  They don't seem willing to do that.  They want to win on the cheap and they're stuck on that path now.  Putin can't hide the damage if he mobilizes the reserves, and it'd take months to get them in fighting shape anyway.  This isn't WWI where the European powers had turned mobilization into an art form.  As was said before, we don't even know if the Russian reserve equipment is even combat capable and how much if can ever even be made so again. 

The most dangerous thing for Russia is that they are fighting a "Special Operation" with limited commitment.  Ukraine is fighting their Great Patriotic War with every ounce of their manpower and national will.   That calculus is extremely hard to overcome.

We'll know by May 9.  I imagine whatever scenario exists by then save the complete rout of the Russian Army, Putin will declare victory at May Day. 

The problem for the Russians is that even if they're willing to quit, are the Ukrainians?

I don't know about there being a "logical" stopping place for the Russians. In the history of warfare over the last two centuries, national sentiment has played such a large role in almost every war. It is very hard to back out of war because to do so makes all the sacrifice up to that point worthless. Also add in the very bad blood between Ukraine and Russia now, and I think that only some sort of moral collapse and/or national exhaustion will see the end of it. My guess is that it happens on the Russian side first. But frighteningly, that breaking point might be months or a year or more away. I am thinking Germany in late 1918.

  The thing is, there are huge problems for the Russians wherever they stop.  For example, suppose they take Donbas and the whole Ukrainian Coast and Moldova -- which
seems to be their biggest plan and most gigantic stopping point at the moment.  And this wrecks Ukraine's economic future and adds Moldova and
Trsnitara to the Russian Sphere.  Bad for Ukraine and
Moldova clearly, but how good for Russia?  They will have to sell their oil and gas via China and conduct whatever is left of their other businesses via China.  India is already
working on getting out of the Russia armaments connections (since Pakistan has gone Chinese) 
Russia will be a colony of China.  Good for China and sort of
a big loss for Russia, I think.  Before that happens, some sort of regime change and pull back is pretty likely in Russia
and likely to be better for the Russians
if they get out of Ukraine and become a relatively unaggressive state and pursue their own real interests which would seem to be: getting out of Ukraine, quit having
fits about NATO and make money off all their resources.

[bobarossa]

Bad news for Russia's economy and by China no less.
From Associated Press
https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-putin-business-global-trade-beijing-d3dbb062b20bf0a6ab49ec5f4a7ec1bb
"China's credit card processor has refused to work with banks in Russia for fear of being targeted by sanctions over its war on Ukraine, cutting off a possible alternative after Visa and Mastercard stopped serving them, according to the Russian news outlet RBC.

UnionPay's decision affects Sberbank, Russia's biggest commercial bank, and smaller institutions, RBC reported Wednesday. It cited five unidentified sources in large Russian banks."

[W8taminute]

Very interesting thoughts Meng.  I need to ponder what you said but my initial reaction is your speculation makes sense. 

But to twist the plot further I found this article to be rather thought provoking.

https://www.jpost.com/international/article-704877?utm_source=jpost.app.android&utm_medium=share

[Gusington]

Holy crap on the salvage ship, Kommuna - originally tsarist!!

[SirAndrewD]

  The thing is, there are huge problems for the Russians wherever they stop. 

That's why it's really hard to come up with a coherent, logical analysis of where this may all be heading. 

It should've been abundantly clear that the only winning move was not to play.