Russia's War Against Ukraine

[GDS_Starfury]

so this is the conservative map as of now:

[GDS_Starfury]

pro russian sourced map:

[JasonPratt]

Hm: the pro-Russian map is less conservative! (Or rather, more conservative the other way.) Not what I expected from orc propaganda. ;)

[MengJiao]

Hm: the pro-Russian map is less conservative! (Or rather, more conservative the other way.) Not what I expected from orc propaganda. ;)

  They do show lots of Russian activity -- airstrikes, helicopters and the Ukrainian action is labeled "recon/sabatage"...plus they still have troops or something cut off in Balayirtria.

[SirAndrewD]

Hm: the pro-Russian map is less conservative! (Or rather, more conservative the other way.) Not what I expected from orc propaganda. ;)

Right now there's a total breakdown in the Russian propaganda machine vis a vis the Kharkiv offensive. 

It was so sudden and the surprise so complete that Russian milbloggers aren't getting spin from the MoD.

ISW had this assessment...

1. The Russian MoD struggles to address unexpected Ukrainian operations because its information strategy relies on portraying the Russian invasion of Ukraine as an easy and faultless operation. This promotes a lack of situational awareness within the Kremlin and the Russian media space.

2. The Russian MoD needs a significant amount of time to develop and spread false narratives in the Russian information space. The Kremlin and Russian MoD successfully did so prior to the long-awaited Ukrainian counteroffensive in the south, and milbloggers largely followed the Kremlin's line.

3. The Russian MoD failed to have a narrative ready for Ukrainian operations in Kharkiv Oblast.

4. Milbloggers will share and promote footage and imagery of fighting unfavorable to Russian forces that will dominate coverage in the Russian information space if the Russian MoD does not provide its own media.

[GDS_Starfury]

[SirAndrewD]

Not getting too excited yet, but some reports with photographs that Ukrainian forces are already in Kapitolovka and Oskol.

If true that'd be an unfathomably fast advance down the river and Izium is almost surrounded.  I'm taking that with a huge grain of salt but the rumors last night that the Ukrainians had reached the Oskil river proved to be true this morning.

[Windigo]

There are reliable bloggers and podcasters out there with great up-to-date information that they pull from multiple sources that is accurate most of the time.

For instance - here is unconfirmed information that this was an attack of opportunity with limited goals that was wildly successful, one that the UAF quickly reinforced with units on hand... including foreign fighter units. What's not clear is whether the contingency was planned for/anticipated?

[GDS_Starfury]

I dont see the reason for surprise.  this is exactly what soviet, and later, NATO strategy look for to exploit.
the distances here are relatively short in the grand scheme of things, we just havent seen much movement in months so they look like more massive maneuvers.  this isnt to take away the awesome success the UAF are having.
personally I'm waiting on where the third punch is going to land.

[Windigo]

I dont see the reason for surprise.  this is exactly what soviet, and later, NATO strategy look for to exploit.
the distances here are relatively short in the grand scheme of things, we just havent seen much movement in months so they look like more massive maneuvers.  this isnt to take away the awesome success the UAF are having.
personally I'm waiting on where the third punch is going to land.

I think maybe the cut to communications and logistics lines is the third punch? All of a sudden Soviet units are going to be running short on a whole lot of things.

What is still amazing to me is the lack of willingness of the Soviet airforce to take big losses taking key Ukraine assets out. Maybe they can't locate them reliably enough to roll the dice, or maybe Ukraine air defence is that good?

Another thing Soviet POWs... thats going to be a problem very very soon.

[GDS_Starfury]

cutting the GLOCs are already happening north of Izyum.
the UAF has already drawn in and stuck the russians around Kherson.
theyve also started a general rout north if Izyum.
if they have the resources Id launch something out of Zaporizhzhia to the south east.  >:D

[SirAndrewD]

Well, this video purports to show a new axis of attack towards Liman. 

That'd be a push to the eastern side of the river.

https://twitter.com/DachiOf/status/1568295709467631617?s=20&t=eXMDcjnv4DrJedl7jLTLHw

[GDS_Starfury]

notice anything? 

[Uberhaus]

Other than m4s with acogs?

[GDS_Starfury]

that would be the thing!  <:-)