Russia's War Against Ukraine

[Windigo]

Truisms about Russia
Russia always lies... always. It's pathological. - Pipeline
Russia never gives a rat's ass about its men in uniform. They are a tool. - Lyman
Russian leadership really only ever cares about Russian leadership - they lack empathy for everything except themselves. - Conscript situation.

[JasonPratt]

Meant to note last night, upon seeing SirAndrew's report:

On Sept 23, Lukashenko declares there will be no mobilization, it's a lie, etc.

Sept 29: 100K mobilization by February, woo hoo!  <:-)  ::)

[ArizonaTank]

I am still looking for a full transcript of Putin's annexation speech. But apparently it was rambling list of grievances. The Guardian called it 'more angry taxi driver than world leader.'

Wapo summed it up in seven points:
1. Russia will never give up annexed regions
2. Ukraine must give in.
3. The West is trying to destroy Russia.
4. The United States, not Russia, poses a nuclear threat.
5. 'Anglo-Saxons' sabotaged the Nord Stream pipelines.
6. Russia will never recognize LGBT rights.
7. In the words of Ivan Ilyin, Russia's 'destiny is my destiny.'

I guess number 6 is there well...just because.

Not to get too far off the subject, but I started watching Ken Burn's documentary on the US and Holocaust (a great documentary if you haven't seen it).

The documentary does a great job in showing the rise of Hitler and how he was basically telling the world what he was going to do, before he did it. The Sudetenland, Anschluss, over-running Czechoslovakia and Poland were not surprises for those who were watching the Nazis closely.

Fast forward to today. I can't help but get the feeling that it is 1936 all over again. And like Hitler, Putin is a gambler.

Putin's speech was just missing a reference to 'lebensraum.'

And who the hell is "Ivan Ilyin" anyway?

[Con]

I was thinking the ones who should really be pushed about this are the Chinese
Russia will not be a threat for a generation due to getting their best people and frontline kit getting absolutely wrecked in Ukraine
Finland and Sweden join nato making it stronger and bigger
US military pivot to Asia can accelerate because of the above
Russian kit has been shown to be woefully inferior to the west Much of China is based on Russian architecture
Russian military doctrine proven to be bad. Again conscript army in China
Achieving Air superiority has taken a kick in the balls with drones
The list goes on
Con

[W8taminute]

So the yellow and blue country wants quick ascension into NATO and Mr. Burns just told the bear leader that we're going to defend every inch.

Fasten your seatbelts, it's WW3 time.

[JasonPratt]

Or, this is where things stabilize, with the Donbas now (by fraud election) 'Russia' -- did the Crimea get into that referendum? (somehow I didn't catch that). And the rest of Ukraine now NATO. Putin isn't going to go after NATO territories, or not for a long while now.

Moldova better get its NATO-sponsored 'Partnership for Peace' on the ball, because there's a good chance Russia and Belorussia are going there next time!

[bobarossa]

Moldova is completely surrounded by Romania and Ukraine. I doubt they will allow overflights.

[JasonPratt]

Transnitria got some Russian equipment in there somehow.

Edited to add: okay, I thought Transnitria had a port onto the Black Sea, which Russia might take and secure (y'know, by 'referendum' in Transnitria), but it doesn't. Moldova itself alllllmost does, but not quite.

[MengJiao]

Transnitria got some Russian equipment in there somehow.

Edited to add: okay, I thought Transnitria had a port onto the Black Sea, which Russia might take and secure (y'know, by 'referendum' in Transnitria), but it doesn't. Moldova itself alllllmost does, but not quite.

  After Transnitria staged some "incidents" in which they shot an RPG at their own local hq near the non-MacDonalds in downtown Transnitria, they seemed to have decided to lay low.

[GDS_Starfury]

well heres the shitfucks speech:

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1575853684852150272.html

[FarAway Sooner]

Putin is living in the Matrix, an alternate world from reality. It sort of reminds me of Hitler in his bunker moving around phantom divisions that no longer exist on the map.

Under ordinary circumstances, it would be amusing...but the more the conventional military outlook deteriorates for Russia, the more dangerous the situation actually becomes.

Yeah, I think when given Neo's choice Putin chose the red pill over the blue pill.

The situation certainly gets more unpredictable now.  But I don't know that there was any way we were going to get beyond the current bloody impasse without somebody's military situation deteriorating first.  Given the daily price paid in flesh, blood, and freedom just to maintain the status quo, I'd rather face those next risks--whatever they are--sooner rather than later.

Russia hasn't been making coherent decisions for months now.  It's a little unclear if they ever were.

I wonder how long beleaguered Russians troops in Lyman might hold out without supplies?  Lord knows that the Ukrainian defenders in Melitupol (?) held out for a couple months in that steel plant after they were cut off...

SirAndrew, I'm also a Tom Lehrer fan.  There must be at least one or two others on this board who know and remember his genius and are willing to come forward here.  Who's next?

[GDS_Starfury]

so this is where its roughly at now:

[nelmsm]

I really can't see Russia blowing the pipeline as they lose any leverage they had over the Europeans in stopping arms shipments.  I've not heard any postulate it but I'm wondering if the Ukranians might have done it.  No chance of gas from Russia and there is nothing to lose in sending arms to Ukraine.  Not sure they would have the capability but how big a team would it take to pull that off.  Some divers who knew what there were doing and a Liberian or Panamanian flagged old freighter and you could be in business.

[GDS_Starfury]

it was russia and it saved them roughly 40 billion in fees.

[Crossroads]

Herr Putin's speech in full. It is quite something. "Siri, what is grievance?"

http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/transcripts/69465