Russia's War Against Ukraine

[Crossroads]

From gerbils back to Russia's War against Ukraine.

Lawrence Freedman's sub stack with yet another good analysis imho at least as where we are at the moment. Here's the conclusion, but well worth reading as how he got there

All this can be taken as evidence that even those more prepared to give Russia the benefit of the doubt, and point to what they believe to be NATO's culpability and hypocricy, see Putin's war as a lost cause. They can now see what has been apparent to military analysts for some time. Putin's army are unable to solve his Ukraine problem, and their efforts to do so have only made the situation worse.

Nothing can now be done to reset Russo-Ukrainian relations for the long-term in a way that would serve his interests and be at all stable. The gap between his desired ends and available means has grown ever wider over the past nine months.

The war was lost long ago. The challenge remains one of getting Putin and his circle to accept this view. If this is to happen there is no alternative to keeping up the military pressure.

https://samf.substack.com/p/is-russia-losing?utm_source=profile&utm_medium=reader2

[Groggy]

From gerbils back to Russia's War against Ukraine.

Lawrence Freedman's sub stack with yet another good analysis imho at least as where we are at the moment. Here's the conclusion, but well worth reading as how he got there

All this can be taken as evidence that even those more prepared to give Russia the benefit of the doubt, and point to what they believe to be NATO's culpability and hypocricy, see Putin's war as a lost cause. They can now see what has been apparent to military analysts for some time. Putin's army are unable to solve his Ukraine problem, and their efforts to do so have only made the situation worse.

Nothing can now be done to reset Russo-Ukrainian relations for the long-term in a way that would serve his interests and be at all stable. The gap between his desired ends and available means has grown ever wider over the past nine months.

The war was lost long ago. The challenge remains one of getting Putin and his circle to accept this view. If this is to happen there is no alternative to keeping up the military pressure.

https://samf.substack.com/p/is-russia-losing?utm_source=profile&utm_medium=reader2

Terrific summary. Freedman is absolutely right about the annexation of the four provinces. Of all the blunders, the annexation is one where Putin has painted himself in a corner.

[fran]

Ukrainian strike hits Russian barracks in occupied Melitopol
Complex reportedly struck by Himars rockets may have been a stronghold of Wagner mercenary group that fights for Kremlin



https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/dec/11/ukrainian-himars-missiles-hit-russian-occupied-melitopol?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Other

[fran]

Do not agree with the author of this article. Putin would like to restore the Soviet Union, or at least a 'revised' version of it. While drawing attention away from the kleptocracy Russian state. It is not the West provoking him, but Putin trying to regain his position at the top table. Why would he allow intervention in Syria and Africa by the Wagner group?

The author

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-11524385/PETER-HITCHENS-arrogance-folly-Ukraine-send-nuclear-catastrophe.html

[GDS_Starfury]

a little close combat tank on tank action.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1602030183694860288

[Groggy]

Do not agree with the author of this article. Putin would like to restore the Soviet Union, or at least a 'revised' version of it. While drawing attention away from the kleptocracy Russian state. It is not the West provoking him, but Putin trying to regain his position at the top table. Why would he allow intervention in Syria and Africa by the Wagner group?

The author

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-11524385/PETER-HITCHENS-arrogance-folly-Ukraine-send-nuclear-catastrophe.html

I'm not sure why it's so difficult for people to understand that Putin has always been a murderous dictator with plans to invade Ukraine and reclaim Soviet territories. The evidence has been obvious for decades. Putin's ideology and playbook have been based on Alexander Dugin's Geopolitics from '97 which called for a plan to sever Britain from the EU, destabilize America, and invade Ukraine.

[Crossroads]

General Mick Ryan's rather interesting read on how both Russia and Ukraine have adapted their battlefield strategies and tactics over the duration of Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Builds partially on the RUSI report a few posts back about lessons learned so far.

First chapters are about background on adaptation and friction, then it gets really interesting.

https://twitter.com/WarintheFuture/status/1602105030274076673

https://mickryan.substack.com/p/winning-the-adaptation-battle?r=1gv0l&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web

[JasonPratt]

The West: *exists*
Putin: *provoked*

But of course it isn't really provocation, it's excuse-searching. Also out of Gugin's playbook, but as a systematic policy integrated with other things it goes back to Lenin and Trotsky.

[Windigo]

The West: *exists*
Putin: *provoked*

But of course it isn't really provocation, it's excuse-searching. Also out of Gugin's playbook, but as a systematic policy integrated with other things it goes back to Lenin and Trotsky.

I would never have imagined that they could accomplish as much as they have with the UK.... but here we are.

[GDS_Starfury]

russian detraining exercises.....   ::)

https://twitter.com/i/status/1602351701008302082

[GDS_Starfury]

current situation around Bakhmut:

[Gusington]

^As you guys mentioned last week the Stalingrad vibes are growing even stronger.

[al_infierno]

Horse meat's back on the menu, boys!

[Toonces]

I read today that this war's been going on for 11 months?! 

I don't know why, exactly, but that struck me...that that much time has gone by. With no end in sight...

[MengJiao]

I read today that this war's been going on for 11 months?! 

I don't know why, exactly, but that struck me...that that much time has gone by. With no end in sight...

  I don't think 11 months adds up.  Part of feb plus, March, april, May, June, July August, Sept, Oct, Nov and part of dec...That's nine months plus some weeks.