A question to you all

[acctingman]

There are some super knowledgeable folks here when it comes to keeping up with all the going on's in the world. I am NOT one of them, but since the Russian invasion of the Ukraine and now the conflict in the ME, I'm for the first time in my life wondering.....are we headed for a world war?

Love to hear your assessments on the global impact of both wars going on and if you think we're heading toward WW3.

Thanks

[SirAndrewD]

It's arguable that we're already in one.

I had a pretty long discussion with former FSO buddy that works with the DOD and he pretty well agrees. 

The difference is that in this instance, the major powers involved NATO and allies vs Russia, China, India, North Korea and Iran, the war is unlikely to be fought directly in the major states and more with and among proxies.

[al_infierno]

The difference is that in this instance, the major powers involved NATO and allies vs Russia, China, India, North Korea and Iran, the war is unlikely to be fought directly in the major states and more with and among proxies.

So more like Cold War 2: Chilly Boogaloo?

[SirAndrewD]

So more like Cold War 2: Chilly Boogaloo?

Pretty much.  None of the major powers want to risk existential wars on their soil.   

Russia is the wild card there as they seem to have exited the traditional risk calculus that has kept the peace, largely because they're already in a self created existential crisis with their population falling off the edge after shedding their former client states.

Still, there's the glass half full part, even with things as crazy as they are right now, they're not that crazy historically.  Our connectedness and media tends to amplify what is, in perspective, one of the most peaceful times in human history.   

[W8taminute]

So more like Cold War 2: Chilly Boogaloo?

80's flash back right there.  Replace Chilly with Electric. 


Seriously though I do believe something big, really big is brewing.  If it's not Ukraine, it's Taiwan.  If it's not Taiwan, it's North Korea.  And now the latest crisis in the middle east.  Is everyone losing it?

[SirAndrewD]

Is everyone losing it?

No more than they ever have. Actually verifiably less. 

There's a Billy Joel song about that.

[Sir Slash]

I would argue the opposite. There's more strife and dis-unity in the world right now than ever. In the past it has been local and rather short-lived. Today people even in the relatively calm West are at each others throats almost constantly. And immediately it becomes personal and hate filled. Probably fueled on by access to the Internet and all the almost constant need for a 24 Hour News cycle and the latest,( Fill in the blank) threat to humanity. The Nation States, some of them, thrived on it for decades but now can't seem to control it or even keep-up with it. It does feel like something VERY BIG is coming our way. And soon. I'll be in my bunker curled-up in the corner with my Teddy Pug if you need me.

[SirAndrewD]

I would argue the opposite. There's more strife and dis-unity in the world right now than ever. In the past it has been local and rather short-lived.

The entire swath and study of human history disagrees with you.

[MengJiao]

It

I would argue the opposite. There's more strife and dis-unity in the world right now than ever. In the past it has been local and rather short-lived.

The entire swath and study of human history disagrees with you.

That seems to be true.  Apparently for the Middle East (which would be most of the "civilized" or in this case armed to the teeth) human-on-human violence peaked from around 2300 BC (the fall of Akkad) to around 1300 BC (the fall of nearly everybody but Assyria and Egypt).  After about 1300 BC human violence at least in the Middle East has declined steadily.

PS...woops I was way off on the dates, but still the general decline in violence seems to hold:

https://www.livescience.com/archaeology/violence-in-the-ancient-middle-east-spiked-with-the-formation-of-states-and-empires-battered-skulls-reveal

[SirAndrewD]

That seems to be true.  Apparently for the Middle East (which would be most of the "civilized" or in this case armed to the teeth) human-on-human violence peaked from around 2300 BC (the fall of Akkad) to around 1300 BC (the fall of nearly everybody but Assyria and Egypt).  After about 1300 BC human violence at least in the Middle East has declined steadily.

More than just the middle east. 

Sociologist and psychologist Dr. Steven Pinker has done extensive historiographical studies on strife and human conflict.  You can read some of his data with your own research, but he's shown decisively that the percentage of humans on earth killed in armed conflict is at its lowest point in all recorded history and is still in continued decline. 

Wars were only "local" in the past because technology limited them, and really the idea of local is strange considering how extensive and bloody many conflicts have been through history.

And short?  The 100 years war, the 70 Years War, the 30 Years war.  There were wars in the east that went on for centuries.  If anything technology has majorly decreased the times of conflict.

But, as I say, that's the glass is half full side of things.

There's a saying I'm fond of, "Peace is a theoretical state of affairs whose existence we deduce only because there have been intervals between wars". 

It's easy to predict a war because we've always had them and always will.  The only thing we can really do is keep limiting them, containing them and keep making those intervals bigger.

[Gusington]

There's also way too many people on this planet. Leave me alone and get off my lawn.

[SirAndrewD]

There's also way too many people on this planet. Leave me alone and get off my lawn.

You can partly blame that on the decrease in human conflict as well.

Up until the early 20th century human population growth was largely slow and stagnant.

In the 50's we decided to stop blowing each other up as much as a pastime and invented penicillin.  That dumped an extra few billion annoying jerks into the pool in just under a century. 

[Redwolf]

There must be consideration of whether China is encouraged to make a move on Taiwan now that Russia played first penguin.

In my estimation China is a major reason why the US and the West support Ukraine as much as they do. They want to prevent China from being encouraged.

[Redwolf]

And short?  The 100 years war, the 70 Years War, the 30 Years war.  There were wars in the east that went on for centuries.  If anything technology has majorly decreased the times of conflict.

But the Iraq and Afghanistan wars took very long.

[SirAndrewD]

But the Iraq and Afghanistan wars took very long.

Very true.  As did the Indochina conflict and Iran/Iraq war.