The Houthi Thing

[MengJiao]

  Long ago I asked a professor who had studied arabic and yemen what was going on in Yemen.  She said, "I don't known."  I still find the Houthi agenda a bit obscure.  They were busy attacking Saudi Arabia until recently and now I guess they are shooting their stuff from Iran at random ships in the Red Sea and we just hit some of their
assets that support shooting at ships in the Red Sea.  Is that pretty much the whole story?  I know by Law of the Sea, you can always shoot back at pirates and such...so is this more anti privateering?

[W8taminute]

Around October 14, 2023 Yemen, under direction and control of the Houthi rebels, declared war on Israel.  They declared war in "support" of the pals in Gaza who on October 7, 2023 launched a surprise attack on Israeli border settlements murdering 1400 people and kidnapping roughly 300. 

At first the Houthis limited their actions to launching drones and missiles at Eilat, Israel.  Later towards the end of last year they began attacking ships in the Red Sea that the Houthis suspected to be travelling to Israel. 

Soon after they just started attacking any commercial vessel in the Red Sea regardless of where they were heading.  I read that something like 30-40% of the worlds commerce traverses the Red Sea.  I'm actually quite surprised that the price of goods and gasoline (petrol) has not started to skyrocket.  Nevertheless my suspicion (just my opinion) is that the Houthis, who by the way are funded and backed by the Islamic State of Iran, are using the Gazan war as an excuse to disrupt the world economy. 

Last night the US and UK attacked many targets in Yemen including but not limited to; missile & drone launch sites, munitions storehouses, radar and anti aircraft defenses.  This was done after the U.N. on January 10, 2024 called upon Yemen to stop it's attack on commercial shipping in the Red Sea.  Yemen refused so here we are.

Iran is behind the actions of Hamas, Hezbollah, the Palestine Authority, and the Houthis who are nothing but proxies of Iran. 

[MengJiao]

Soon after they just started attacking any commercial vessel in the Red Sea regardless of where they were heading.  I read that something like 30-40% of the worlds commerce traverses the Red Sea.  I'm actually quite surprised that the price of goods and gasoline (petrol) has not started to skyrocket.  Nevertheless my suspicion (just my opinion) is that the Houthis, who by the way are funded and backed by the Islamic State of Iran, are using the Gazan war as an excuse to disrupt the world economy. 

Last night the US and UK attacked many targets in Yemen including but not limited to; missile & drone launch sites, munitions storehouses, radar and anti aircraft defenses.  This was done after the U.N. on January 10, 2024 called upon Yemen to stop it's attack on commercial shipping in the Red Sea.  Yemen refused so here we are.

Iran is behind the actions of Hamas, Hezbollah, the Palestine Authority, and the Houthis who are nothing but proxies of Iran. 

But what do the Houthi hope to get out of this?  I seem to recall even their favorite enemy, Saudi Arabia, asked the US not to attack the Houthi (I think the Houthi and SA have a ceasefire or something).
Moreover, the Red Sea is a major supply route for the Houthi (or is it if SA is letting things into Yemen by other routes?)

And another thing, if shore-based weapons are used to support piracy, then anyone in the area may be obligated to shoot at the shore-based weapons.

Of course, the Houthi can argue that they have declared war on Israel, so they are just privateering -- though I'm not sure that is even a legal term anymore.

[Uberhaus]

Iran is behind the actions of Hamas, Hezbollah, the Palestine Authority, and the Houthis who are nothing but proxies of Iran. 

and the Iraqi and Syrian militias that are harassing US forces.  Jeremy Bowen of the BBC (https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-67955729) says not to call the Houthis proxies but allies of Iran but I think that's splitting hairs.  Especially with an Iranian ship in the Red Sea providing intelligence to the Houthis https://news.yahoo.com/iranian-spy-vessel-directs-houthi-225731425.html

Tomorrow we will see the results of Taiwan's election. As the DPP, who champion independence for Taiwan, are leading in the polls, we shall soon after see Xi Jinping and the CCP's reaction.  I think Iran's axis of resistance will expand from Iran, Russia, North Korea, Venezuela and some non-state actors to include China at the very least taking advantage of multiple, world-wide crisis and the West's ability to respond, with unfortunately, the greatest burdens falling on the US.

[Gusington]

In some good news that may have been buried, Saudi Arabia has surprisingly announced that they still want to pursue a peace deal with Israel.

[W8taminute]

But what do the Houthi hope to get out of this?

They themselves do not gain anything directly out of this other than furthering the cause of their sponsor(s) which is to...

using the Gazan war as an excuse to disrupt the world economy

or at least the Western Economies.

... taking advantage of multiple, world-wide crisis and the West's ability to respond, with unfortunately, the greatest burdens falling on the US.

This is what is worrying me for 2024.

In some good news that may have been buried, Saudi Arabia has surprisingly announced that they still want to pursue a peace deal with Israel.

That is good news indeed and actually I'm excited to hear about that.  At least there is some hope for sense and reasonableness in the middle east. 

[Uberhaus]

Not a big fan of MBS but Saudi Arabia is opposed to Iran's ambitions and is trying to check the growth of Iranian support in the Middle East, especially at its own back door of Yemen.

[GDS_Starfury]

 

Jan 12 (Reuters) -  Houthi militants mistakenly targeted a tanker carrying Russian oil in a missile attack on Friday off Yemen, British maritime security firm Ambrey said.

[MengJiao]

Jan 12 (Reuters) -  Houthi militants mistakenly targeted a tanker carrying Russian oil in a missile attack on Friday off Yemen, British maritime security firm Ambrey said.

You know, it seems kind of odd that if Russia and Iran are busy working to have stuff shot at things all over the place in order to have external enemies to keep their more-or-less internally suppressed populations mesmerized, it seems that all they have done is to perpetuate internal and external pressures so that both areas (external and internal) require more and more effort.  It seems like an unproductive cycle for everybody.  Even the Houthi.

[GDS_Starfury]

yes and a main contributor is that russians are fucking dumb.

[MengJiao]

yes and a main contributor is that russians are fucking dumb.

Even total stupidity could learn to stop doing this weird cycle.  There must be some reflexive
mental twitch in there that is far beyond the normal range of ordinary dumbness.  The Houthi I can sort of
understand: shoot stuff get some credibility and more weapons and continue the cycle.
Russia and Iran seem to have gone of the deep end of something else.

[GDS_Starfury]

I would say nuke them from orbit but I kinda live here.

[GDS_Starfury]

[FarAway Sooner]

yes and a main contributor is that russians are fucking dumb.

Even total stupidity could learn to stop doing this weird cycle.  There must be some reflexive
mental twitch in there that is far beyond the normal range of ordinary dumbness.  The Houthi I can sort of
understand: shoot stuff get some credibility and more weapons and continue the cycle.
Russia and Iran seem to have gone of the deep end of something else.

I think it's actually pretty simple.  It goes something like this.  "To show fear is to show weakness.  I must never show weakness.  What is the most fearless thing I can do to my rivals?" 

It is, IMHO, the same response that the anti-maskers had to COVID in the first year after vaccines became available.  Viruses, of course, don't see fear as a sign of weakness, so it made even less sense in that case, but perhaps that is a direction I shouldn't go in this conversation?

[Gusington]

^Agreed on that last point.