Russia's War Against Ukraine

Started by ArizonaTank, November 26, 2021, 04:54:38 PM

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JasonPratt

They'll rattle their nukes at literally anything for any reason anyway, and losing Crimea will be quite a good reason from their standpoint, so I'm going to guess the answer is "yes".  :pirate:
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Gusington

Hasn't been a lot of rattlin' lately...


слава Україна!

We can't live under the threat of a c*nt because he's threatening nuclear Armageddon.

-JudgeDredd

JasonPratt

Didn't they do the usual thing when that massive swarm of drones lightly scorched the paint of some of their buildings? I mean, I don't recall that they did, to be honest, but I've been busy elsewhere, so I just assumed business as usual.

If they didn't this time.... hm, I wonder if I should be worried. Can't recall who said it first, but Tom Clancy used to say that a rattling sword is still in the scabbard; a drawn sword doesn't rattle.

 :HideEyes:
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FarAway Sooner

I think the real concern is Russia using tactical nukes to target Ukrainian troop concentrations, either before or after staging some kind of false flag operation somewhere in Russian-occupied Ukrainian territory.  But trying to predict the Russians in this whole conflict has been an exercise in futility.

Crossroads

Quote from: FarAway Sooner on June 01, 2023, 11:07:53 PMI think the real concern is Russia using tactical nukes to target Ukrainian troop concentrations, either before or after staging some kind of false flag operation somewhere in Russian-occupied Ukrainian territory.  But trying to predict the Russians in this whole conflict has been an exercise in futility.

I wonder if tactical nukes truly bring any battlefield advantage as such, given the similar effect can be achieved by conventional arms. In 2014, Russia wiped out a Ukrainian mech battalion with MRLS using UAV to adjust fire. At the same time, China et al have made it very clear they don't want to see nukes used, and that in general use of nukes is always a strategic decision, given the absolute pariah status Russia would be under.

Meanwhile in the news: seems the various diversions are creating the desired effect

https://twitter.com/DefenceHQ/status/1664510885249908736
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ArizonaTank

Quote from: Crossroads on June 02, 2023, 02:26:05 AMMeanwhile in the news: seems the various diversions are creating the desired effect


The Ukrainian/Russians are writing another page in the long history such raiders; Lawrence, Grierson, Stuart, Marion, to name just a few.
Johannes "Honus" Wagner
"The Flying Dutchman"
Shortstop: Pittsburgh Pirates 1900-1917
Rated as the 2nd most valuable player of all time by Bill James.

ArizonaTank

#7251
Meatgrinder: Russian Tactics in the Second Year of Its Invasion of Ukraine

May 19, 2023 report by the British Royal United Services Institute (RUSI)

https://static.rusi.org/403-SR-Russian-Tactics-web-final.pdf

Some interesting thoughts on Russian "human wave" assaults

Page 3  - 4 states:

"Russia's disposable infantry should be considered fundamentally different and are drawn from three principal sources: conscripts from the Luhansk and Donetsk People's Republics (heavily attrited from early rounds of fighting); prisoners drafted by the Wagner Group; and undertrained mobilised Russian civilians. These troops were originally formed into companies of approximately 60 people,8 but have since been broken down into platoons of approximately 15. They are issued with small arms. Ukrainian troops report that they often appear to be under the influence of amphetamines or other narcotic substances, with material recovered from the battlefield indicating that these are commonly taken in liquid form.

In the attack, disposable infantry are the first to be employed. Disposable platoons are assigned to those avenues of approach to Ukrainian positions that are deemed to offer some cover and thus could prove viable. Although these have been described colloquially as 'human wave attacks', they no longer involve a dense concentration of infantry conducting an assault in a single mass. Rather, a disposable fire team of two to five personnel is sent from a forming-up position in the Russian front line and advances to contact. There may be up to five fire teams pushed across an axis at any one time, but normally only one or two teams will be able to work forwards. The team will skirmish with Ukrainian defensive positions on contact, often until killed. Ukrainian troops noted that many continued to advance, even after being wounded. On more than one occasion Ukrainian soldiers report that disposable infantry have been shot from Russian positions when attempting to retreat. As teams are destroyed by defensive fire, Russian forces will commit successive teams forward by the same line of approach. Ukrainian forces must continuously defend their positions against consecutive waves, expending ammunition, exposing the locations of their defensive positions, and exhausting their personnel.

If these attacks were executed by capable assault troops motivated by factors other than coercion and narcotics, they would be roughly equivalent to historical assault tactics such as the 'short attacks' of the Chinese People's volunteer Army in the Korean War. The term 'human wave attacks' is certainly misleading for probes by successive small assault teams against enemy defences. However, the way that they are conducted is not conducive to successful assaults nor to the maintenance of momentum. Rather, the continuous conduct of this activity, across all axes, is a form of reconnaissance that allows the Russian forces to do two things. First, they find points of weakness in the Ukrainian defences where these troops make surprising amounts of progress or face very limited fire. These are then prioritised for deliberate assault. Alternatively, where the defence is strong, the revelation of Ukrainian firing positions allows specialised troops to begin targeting them."
Johannes "Honus" Wagner
"The Flying Dutchman"
Shortstop: Pittsburgh Pirates 1900-1917
Rated as the 2nd most valuable player of all time by Bill James.

JasonPratt

Suchimimus (whom several of us like to watch) posted a video yesterday showing first-person footage, from a driver's camera, of a Pantsir S1 being droned.

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JasonPratt

And here's a video posted by Sucho a day ago, showing what things look like after HIMARs-o-clock.

ICEBREAKER THESIS CHRONOLOGY! -- Victor Suvorov's Stalin Grand Strategy theory, in lots and lots of chronological order...
Dawn of Armageddon -- narrative AAR for Dawn of War: Soulstorm: Ultimate Apocalypse
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JasonPratt

Dude's on fire the past day! -- some footage from the recent Belgorod invasion raid:

ICEBREAKER THESIS CHRONOLOGY! -- Victor Suvorov's Stalin Grand Strategy theory, in lots and lots of chronological order...
Dawn of Armageddon -- narrative AAR for Dawn of War: Soulstorm: Ultimate Apocalypse
Survive Harder! -- Two season narrative AAR, an Amazon Blood Bowl career.
PanzOrc Corpz Generals -- Fantasy Wars narrative AAR, half a combined campaign.
Khazâd du-bekâr! -- narrative dwarf AAR for LotR BfME2 RotWK campaign.
RobO Q Campaign Generator -- archived classic CMBB/CMAK tool!

JasonPratt

Gus can strike another T-90 off the list!

ICEBREAKER THESIS CHRONOLOGY! -- Victor Suvorov's Stalin Grand Strategy theory, in lots and lots of chronological order...
Dawn of Armageddon -- narrative AAR for Dawn of War: Soulstorm: Ultimate Apocalypse
Survive Harder! -- Two season narrative AAR, an Amazon Blood Bowl career.
PanzOrc Corpz Generals -- Fantasy Wars narrative AAR, half a combined campaign.
Khazâd du-bekâr! -- narrative dwarf AAR for LotR BfME2 RotWK campaign.
RobO Q Campaign Generator -- archived classic CMBB/CMAK tool!

Gusington



слава Україна!

We can't live under the threat of a c*nt because he's threatening nuclear Armageddon.

-JudgeDredd

FarAway Sooner

Quote from: Crossroads on June 02, 2023, 02:26:05 AM
Quote from: FarAway Sooner on June 01, 2023, 11:07:53 PMI think the real concern is Russia using tactical nukes to target Ukrainian troop concentrations, either before or after staging some kind of false flag operation somewhere in Russian-occupied Ukrainian territory.  But trying to predict the Russians in this whole conflict has been an exercise in futility.

I wonder if tactical nukes truly bring any battlefield advantage as such, given the similar effect can be achieved by conventional arms. In 2014, Russia wiped out a Ukrainian mech battalion with MRLS using UAV to adjust fire. At the same time, China et al have made it very clear they don't want to see nukes used, and that in general use of nukes is always a strategic decision, given the absolute pariah status Russia would be under.

I'm skeptical.  So long as the Russians have plausible deniability, I wonder if the Chinese and the other BRICS nations will turn them into a pariah.

Russia blatantly invaded another country of 40,000,000 people, with no provocation and little historical precedent.  That didn't trigger pariah status.

Russian has committed widespread atrocities against civilians.  Vladimir Putin is now charged with crimes of war by the ICC.  That hasn't triggered pariah status.

If Russia does a false-flag operation and triggers one or two nukes in thinly populated parts of Ukraine that kill some Russian soldiers, do you really think that using a few other tactical nukes on troop concentrations in Ukraine will trigger that BRICS status?

FarAway Sooner

Quote from: JasonPratt on June 02, 2023, 11:41:34 AMAnd here's a video posted by Sucho a day ago, showing what things look like after HIMARs-o-clock.


In the early days of the war, the HIMARS rockets were limited to unitary warhead modes.  This meant there was basically one big bomb mounted in the nose of the rocket and, whatever it hit, it destroyed very thoroughly.  This worked for targeting ammo depots and fuel storage areas, but it really limited the effectiveness after softer targets (e.g., train yards, truck convoys, etc.).

While the HIMARS has the ability to use cluster munitions, most "civilized" nations forego the use of those, because they tend to leave too many unexploded warheads lying around that kill people (decades) later.  Thus, the introduction of the tungsten-pellet warheads is a practical alternative.  I'd known this was being considered and thought it was likely, but hadn't heard that we'd done so.

I guess we know now.

Crossroads

Quote from: FarAway Sooner on June 03, 2023, 01:03:46 PMIf Russia does a false-flag operation and triggers one or two nukes in thinly populated parts of Ukraine that kill some Russian soldiers, do you really think that using a few other tactical nukes on troop concentrations in Ukraine will trigger that BRICS status?

I think, or believe, that Russia won't use those first nukes to begin with. Unthinkable. Let us hope that is how they see it as well.
Campaign Series Legion | CS: Vietnam 1948-1967 | CS: Middle East 1948-1985

CS: Vietnam DAR: LZ Albany as NVA (South Vietnam 11/17/65)  
CS: Middle East AARs: High Water Mark (Syria 10/12/73) Me vs Berto | Riptide (Libya 8/6/85) Me vs Berto | The Crossroads (West Bank 6/5/67)  Me vs Berto

Boardgame AARs: AH D-Day | MMP PanzerBlitz2 Carentan | OSS Putin's Northern War | GMT Next War: Poland | LnL Against the Odds DIY