Author Topic: Dawn October 7, 1973, Suez Canal  (Read 582 times)

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Offline MengJiao

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Dawn October 7, 1973, Suez Canal
« on: August 07, 2022, 12:20:40 PM »

   Well so I'm running Test of Faith's big Suez scenario (Oct 6 to Oct 24).  So far its a fairly mixed bag for both sides: 2 VP for the Egyptians cuz the Israelis did not try to bomb the bridges, but it looks
like the Egyptians are not going to get 10 points for taking all the canal-side Bar-Lev positions.  Not all of the commandos managed to land and the Israelis are way ahead on mobilizing (that could be rough).
Plus one Bar-Lev fort repulsed the attacks.  But now the Israelis have to launch some attacks or lose 3 more VPs.

  So here is the Northern Section:

Offline MengJiao

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Re: Dawn October 7, 1973, Suez Canal
« Reply #1 on: August 07, 2022, 12:21:35 PM »

   Well so I'm running Test of Faith's big Suez scenario (Oct 6 to Oct 24).  So far its a fairly mixed bag for both sides: 2 VP for the Egyptians cuz the Israelis did not try to bomb the bridges, but it looks
like the Egyptians are not going to get 10 points for taking all the canal-side Bar-Lev positions.  Not all of the commandos managed to land and the Israelis are way ahead on mobilizing (that could be rough).
Plus one Bar-Lev fort repulsed the attacks.  But now the Israelis have to launch some attacks or lose 3 more VPs.

  So here is the Southern Section:

Offline MengJiao

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Re: Dawn October 7, 1973, Suez Canal
« Reply #2 on: August 07, 2022, 05:13:20 PM »


  Dawn on the 8th of October.  Both sides took minor objectives.  I think VPs are low and getting traded back-and-forth as ways of dodging losses (you can take your losses as retreats, replacements, equipment or VPs).  On the 8th, the Israelis will have to make 3 attacks or lose 10 VPs.  If all the canal-side Bar-Lev positions fell and that happened and nothing else, the Egyptians would be 1 point away from automatic victory.  Fortunately for the Israelis, I sent most of the commandos to take the center and the forts are holding out on either end of the canal.  Anyway here's part of the situation at dawn up north:


Offline MengJiao

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Re: Dawn October 7, 1973, Suez Canal
« Reply #3 on: August 08, 2022, 11:48:44 AM »


  Dawn on the 8th of October.  Both sides took minor objectives.  I think VPs are low and getting traded back-and-forth as ways of dodging losses (you can take your losses as retreats, replacements, equipment or VPs).  On the 8th, the Israelis will have to make 3 attacks or lose 10 VPs.  If all the canal-side Bar-Lev positions fell and that happened and nothing else, the Egyptians would be 1 point away from automatic victory.  Fortunately for the Israelis, I sent most of the commandos to take the center and the forts are holding out on either end of the canal.  Anyway here's part of the situation at dawn up north:

  The Israelis have held on until the 9th.  On the 10th, Southern Command will pull itself together as Bar-Lev becomes its unofficial commander.  Here we see in the center, Sharon's counterattack
happening a day early.  And just as it did historically on the 9th, the attack doesn't go anywhere and a battalion gets routed even BUT that all saves Southern Command from giving up 10 VPs to the
Egyptians.  For them now it is a matter of taking some objectives and keeping the Israelis out of Africa for over 2 weeks (ugh!).  Anyway here is the scene in the middle as the 9th dawns:


Offline MengJiao

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Re: Dawn October 7, 1973, Suez Canal
« Reply #4 on: August 08, 2022, 07:16:38 PM »

  The Israelis have held on until the 9th.  On the 10th, Southern Command will pull itself together as Bar-Lev becomes its unofficial commander.  Here we see in the center, Sharon's counterattack
happening a day early.  And just as it did historically on the 9th, the attack doesn't go anywhere and a battalion gets routed even BUT that all saves Southern Command from giving up 10 VPs to the
Egyptians.  For them now it is a matter of taking some objectives and keeping the Israelis out of Africa for over 2 weeks (ugh!). 

  The 10th was pretty wild.  Southern Command's logistics are running okay and attacks can be coordinated.  After a pile of gruesome attacks, the Sagger effectiveness is down (though the Egyptians blew
up enough tanks to almost win the game automatically).  I kinda messed things up for the Egyptians by withdrawing for fear of an Israeli night attack allowing them to take an objective so with losses and
whatnot the VPs ended at 6 for the Israelis and 19 for the Egyptians.  To trigger this mess, I rolled to see where the Israelis would concentrate and the center was the result.  Next time I'm going to add some rules like a trigger for reorganizing Southern Command.  The thing that really made things rough for the Egyptians this time around was a pair of phenomenally good mobilization rolls for the Israelis.
The real trick is how to keep the Egyptians from winning automatically in the first few turns without making the Israelis too powerful later.  Anyway here is morning in the center on the 11th:


Offline MengJiao

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Re: Dawn October 7, 1973, Suez Canal
« Reply #5 on: August 09, 2022, 01:01:17 PM »
hmmm

 Well, things went from bad to worse on the 12th.  Historically this is the period when Israel asked for a ceasefire (more or less immediate and "in place"), but Sadat turned it down.  Clearly,
though the Egyptians are still well ahead on VPs I have badly messed up with the Egyptians.  They have to use their commandos better and raid the Israeli mobilization routes for example.
Getting across the canal is fine but not getting trapped in the Sinai is far from easy and blowing the bridges is not wise since the engineering support level is likely to be dropping fast and
putting in new bridges is likely to make engineering support fall even faster.  So just to see what happens in a longer game, I'm going to mobilize the 1st army, most of which isn't even in this
scenario except for the SAMs.  We can ahistorically assume the more aggressive Egyptians have
won the debates about what to do and/or the Russian airlifted equipment came in much faster.  Anyway. here's the situation in the center as the 1st Army and the Red Sea Army come to the rescue:




Offline MengJiao

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Re: Dawn October 7, 1973, Suez Canal
« Reply #6 on: August 09, 2022, 06:29:20 PM »
hmmm

 Well, things went from bad to worse on the 12th.  Historically this is the period when Israel asked for a ceasefire (more or less immediate and "in place"), but Sadat turned it down.  Clearly,
though the Egyptians are still well ahead on VPs I have badly messed up with the Egyptians.  They have to use their commandos better and raid the Israeli mobilization routes for example.
Getting across the canal is fine but not getting trapped in the Sinai is far from easy and blowing the bridges is not wise since the engineering support level is likely to be dropping fast and
putting in new bridges is likely to make engineering support fall even faster.  So just to see what happens in a longer game, I'm going to mobilize the 1st army, most of which isn't even in this
scenario except for the SAMs.  We can ahistorically assume the more aggressive Egyptians have
won the debates about what to do and/or the Russian airlifted equipment came in much faster.  Anyway. here's the situation in the center as the 1st Army and the Red Sea Army come to the rescue:

  Morning of the 14th.  Very bad.  The Israelis are poised to cross way up north and the 2nd army is a mess, though it has been holding on well and the Egyptians
 still have 16 VPs to the Israeli 8, but you know, you can't let your army get chopped up and expect to win on style points....So maybe its time to pull back and take some
consequences.  Holding 120 miles of canal plus another 50 of Gulf of Suez coastline isn't easy if you are on the wrong side of the canal.  Anyway, Here is the center again:



Offline Sir Slash

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Re: Dawn October 7, 1973, Suez Canal
« Reply #7 on: August 10, 2022, 09:22:26 AM »
 O0
"Take a look at that". Sgt. Wilkerson-- CMBN. His last words after spotting a German tank on the other side of a hedgerow.

Offline MengJiao

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Re: Dawn October 7, 1973, Suez Canal
« Reply #8 on: August 10, 2022, 10:48:26 AM »
O0

  Yep.  I think I blew it for the Egyptians.  As it more-or-less turns out, this one ends early with an Israeli ceasefire accepted by Egypt.  Technically, Israel won pretty big, coming from behind very quickly
and causing the illegal release of the 1st Army...but really things were very bad for the Egyptians from turn one -- which I think was due to me trying to win with moves derived from versions of this
scenario from other games.  In this game you have to raid and shoot at everything and hope the Israelis don't pull themselves together too fast.  I'm going to adjust the VPs to give both sides more options and try again.

Offline Sir Slash

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Re: Dawn October 7, 1973, Suez Canal
« Reply #9 on: August 11, 2022, 08:17:09 AM »
It must be hard to win as the Egyptians? 
"Take a look at that". Sgt. Wilkerson-- CMBN. His last words after spotting a German tank on the other side of a hedgerow.

Offline MengJiao

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Re: Dawn October 7, 1973, Suez Canal
« Reply #10 on: August 11, 2022, 11:17:11 AM »
It must be hard to win as the Egyptians?

  It is in this scenario in this game.  See the re-run I'm posting.