Israel responds to mortar fire from Syria

[LongBlade]

Israel is playing for keeps....

Israel military: Hamas assassination is beginning of an operation against Gaza militants

http://ca.news.yahoo.com/israel-military-hamas-assassination-beginning-operation-against-gaza-151912448.html



EDIT: I'm leaving on Saturday.... just hope it stays "calm" in the middle til then.

Yup. Pre-emptive move before Syria falls apart. They apparently are trying to apply some lessons learned by the Germans during the Second World War. You know - two fronts and all that.

[Barthheart]

.... They apparently are trying to apply some lessons learned by the Germans during the Second World War. You know - two fronts and all that.

Irony?!?  8)

[LongBlade]

.... They apparently are trying to apply some lessons learned by the Germans during the Second World War. You know - two fronts and all that.

Irony?!?  8)

Irony is my middle name.

[Boggit]

Seems to me that things have already degenerated to a proxy sectarian civil war in Syria.

Alawi's seem to be generally behind Assad, together with Druze, Maronite Christians and other minorities allying themselves with the regime against the potential for Sunni persecution - and since the earlier reported atrocities by the regime - retribution. Unfortunately, there is past history supporting this fear. The first "official" case of modern genocide was - although this is vigorously denied by some Turkish authorities - was of Armenians by the Turks in WW1 (some of which occurred in modern day Syria) - closely followed by the genocide and diaspora of Assyrian Christians of whom many were also subjected to forced conversion to Sunni Islam. In addition, there is evidence to suggest that the Alawi's historically have more in common with Shia Islam, so are more likely to find support from Iran in any sectarian civil war. Ironically, the Assad Regime"S" - since it has been a family business since the current incumbent's father took over Syria - has been said to have encouraged a Sunnification of the Alawi, which obviously has now hit a bit of a road bump - to say the least ::)

Conversely, the Sunni's see support most closely from Turkey, Saudi Arabia and other Sunni dominated states. Sunni's tended to prosper under the Ottoman's to the detriment of other minority and the relative newcomer's to power being the Alawi's has obviously had a social impact on the opportunities available to the Sunni community. We are seeing an increase in foreign fighters - many extreme fundamentalists - notionally part of the "Free Syrian Army" and an increase in FSA atrocities as well. Whilst many Sunni Syrians would like to resolve their civil war pretty much without outside interference, it is hard to do so. Partly this is due to the fragmented political nature of the FSA, also to the organisation and experience that the foreign fighters bring with them. More worryingly for the FSA is that in the event of success is that many foreign fighters are likely to have a fundamentalist agenda and will expect recognition for their sacrifices in the Sunni cause.

So it's a horrible mess for the Syrian's whichever side of the fence you sit on. As time goes on I'd expect the regime to see more support from Iran and Iran's affiliates and for the FSA more support from Turkey and Saudi (- although with a Wahabi/Salafi  agenda). In a sense, it's good news for Israel in that Iran becomes increasingly embroiled with countries like Saudi (which again is not exactly enamoured of Israel), so their attention on Israel is diverted somewhat. This is a possibility, so long as the conflict remains relatively local. Syrian antics close to their borders have the capability to inflame neighbouring countries whether my accident or intent, and while antagonising seems to have been met with relative restraint so far...

In the meantime thousands of ordinary people - now on both sides - are caught up in vicious, evil war where they are the principal sufferers. What a tragedy, and when you really think about it - for what good reason? :'( I can only hope that when it finally ends there will be wise heads that will find some way for reconciliation, although I think that will be an awfully difficult thing to achieve. Even in Libya, which was relatively bloodless in comparison to the situation in Syria and did not contain a similar sectarian element has had a hard time post Gadaffi achieving reconciliation. What a tragic mess. :(

[Gusington]

For decades we've been speculating that WWIII would begin in the Mideast. Looks like it just may.

[LongBlade]

For decades we've been speculating that WWIII would begin in the Mideast. Looks like it just may.

Could be.

I'm going to start a new thread up in Mil History.

[Gusington]

As an aside, the Russians have been quiet for a while. The French have been making more noise in the last few days.

[LongBlade]

For decades we've been speculating that WWIII would begin in the Mideast. Looks like it just may.

Could be.

I'm going to start a new thread up in Mil History.

http://grogheads.com/forums/index.php?topic=3584.new#new

[TheCommandTent]

As an aside, the Russians have been quiet for a while. The French have been making more noise in the last few days.

Didn't the Russians send extra troops to protect one of their bases they have in Syria when this whole civil war thing started there?

[Gusington]

^They also sent ships a few months ago. There are "advisors" from many nations on all sides.

As another angle, the Israeli retaliation against Hamas is like throwing gas over the fire.

[Bison]

Don't worry now you've got Egypt saber rattling going on too.  Arab Spring is clearly the most peaceful movement e'vah.

[Gusington]

I'm trying to figure out what Egypt will really ultimately do. Anyone in a position of power there has to know that if they act out, Israel will pummel them even further into the stone age.

[Bison]

Time will tell us with it's infinite wisdom of what is to come.

My uber educated fly over country armchair geopolitical analysis.  Nothing overt, but words, money, and arms.  Same as Iran, which has been waging a proxy war with Isreal for decades now through Hamas and Hezbollah.

[LongBlade]

I'm trying to figure out what Egypt will really ultimately do. Anyone in a position of power there has to know that if they act out, Israel will pummel them even further into the stone age.

Yeah, but that starts to worry me. There are only so many places the IDF can be at once.

Unless the Sauds decide to send Israel some help. Now wouldn't that make for an interesting alliance? Jordan, Israel, Saudi Arabia against Syria, Egypt, and Iran.

Sheesh. The world is getting weirder by the minute.

[Gusington]

It's the new WWIII. Like the new Coke. Kinda sorta like the old one but way more fucking weird.