Russia's War Against Ukraine

[JasonPratt]

BRICS might have a chance of working economically, if Russia and China dropped out. 

Still, it's worth remembering that 'money' per se (and the value of 'currency' consequently, i.e. the physical representation of money) is a metaphysical concept: it has value only to the extent that persons agree with each other (in fair-togetherness) to use something as a value-holder for exchange of goods and services.

Once the US economy reaches a debt where we can't pay sufficient interest on our obligations, that's the end of the dollar as the world's reserve currency at least (and maybe the end of a lot more of our economy than that).

Any shared value of money agreed to among nations is legit in itself, as long as people agree to have faith (i.e. trust) in each other for its shared use, and if the US dollar no longer has trust for a reserve currency, some other currency could theoretically take that place.

This is the BRICS' overt goal, which I don't think can succeed even if the dollar goes down in flames, due to the inherent instability, corruption, and vulnerability of the nations involved. (India is the best economic hope for that team, and INDIA of all places has gone into a demographic meltdown!) But even if they don't become the new reserve currency, they can still team up for a monetary value of exchange.

I guarantee that the more tyrannical sides of that attempt, especially China, see this as the start of an economic union which is the start of a political union in effect and eventually in reality with the strongest economy of the union dictating terms: meaning them.

From China's perspective, they've been at war with the world for considerably longer than I've been alive, and that has never changed, only the means of waging war -- they'll see this as effective conquest of the other nations involved, including anyone else they can sucker into the scheme.

Just as importantly, that's how they see the United States in our (floundering) status as the world's reserve currency: the US controls the world, so whoever controls the US controls the world.

[JasonPratt]

Meanwhile, looks like the Russians(?) breached the Nova Kakhovka dam upstream of Kherson.

This of course can only mean they have finally succeeded in victory! 

Lots of placing reporting it this morning, but I chose Suchomimus. Skip to 1:08, to jump over the possibly scammy intro...

As someone downthread (on the video) noted, this could be a tad concerning about the nuclear plant's ability to cool itself, or else continue functioning at all, at Zaporizhzhia.

[JasonPratt]

Torsten Heinrich has some commentary on the situation:

[JasonPratt]

So, who benefits and suffers from this?

1.) The Russians apparently controlled (most of?) the dam, and had mined it since November, and had brought the water height to maximum over the past few days while still controlling it. This doesn't guarantee they're the ones who blew it, but that would be a reasonable first guess.

2.) Probably the nuclear plant is okay: it has been offline for a year now, and the rods continue to reduce heat, needing less cooling, so its own cooling ponds will probably be sufficient. But this would seem to delay it ever getting back to work. At the least this means Russia (or maybe Ukraine) has no intention of using that power plant in the foreseeable future. This would be less problematic for the Russians, unless they still intended to hold territory supplied by the power plant.

3.) This is going to mess up the potable water supply to the Crimean peninsula, which cannot in any imaginable way help whomever holds Crimea. Currently that's the Russians. So either the Russians think they can't hold Crimea for the foreseeable future, or the Ukrainians are desperate to get Russian control out but also don't plan to hold Crimea (per se) for the foreseeable future. Anyone planning to hold Crimea usably as a population center (thus also as a logistics center) would want to deny it to the enemy using sluice gate control, which can be turned on and off, rather than blowing a dam which cannot be feasibly fixed anytime soon. Blowing the dam suggests short-term military occupation of Crimea at best, perhaps as a tradeoff for some short-term military advantage gained by the flooding. (Which would seem to benefit Russia right now?)

[GDS_Starfury]

just a morning drive.....

https://twitter.com/i/status/1666061372931571721

[Sir Slash]

Anyone else find it ironic that the Crimea, almost completely surrounded by water, has no drinking water of it's own? So...Dry-mea now? 

[Windigo]

The Russian Airforce awol? First I heard of this. Whats up with that?

[JasonPratt]

Bah, Russians not need drinking water, that is vodka for what for!

Whether potatoes to make vodka need drinking water is somewhat more important.

(It's seriously an agricultural problem: they have desalinators for people, though those will be very strained with armed forces also around, maybe beyond capacity. But without agricultural water, the Crimea cannot feed itself over even the medium term, plus other things in the infrastructure that need fresh not salt water.)

[JasonPratt]

Some brief footage and commentary from the Enforcer

"The largest humanitarian crisis in Europe in seven decades."

[Crossroads]

Some brief footage and commentary from the Enforcer

"The largest humanitarian crisis in Europe in seven decades."

'kinell...

No doubt "Nato expansion made us do it", reports Sergey Lavrov. /s

[Gusington]

This question is out of left field in light of today's dam attack but I was thinking about this on my drive home.

Have there been any verified instances of hand to hand fighting in this war?

[GDS_Starfury]

lots,  theres a fair amount spread around the videos Ive posted involving trench clearing.

[Gusington]

Interesting. I'm sure the Ukrainians welcome any opportunity to literally beat the living shit out of any Russians they can.

[GDS_Starfury]

https://twitter.com/i/status/1666174186685956099

[GDS_Starfury]