Russia's War Against Ukraine

[Uberhaus]

The UN will take issue with the starvation this will cause, but maybe this is another ploy that the Russians are trying for.  It will also effect Ukraine's income and exporting the grain locally has damaged local relations.  https://www.foxnews.com/world/ukrainian-grain-export-ban-extended-5-eu-countries-effort-protect-farmers-interests

Also it is prednisone/anabolic nuclear bear, Lord Owen and Dr. Dyer can't be wrong.  https://www.stuff.co.nz/world/europe/300532115/look-at-his-face-what-tack-to-take-if-russian-president-vladimir-putin-is-on-steroids

[Gusington]

How many Russian subs operate in the Black Sea?

[SirAndrewD]

How many Russian subs operate in the Black Sea?

About half a dozen old Kilo class subs.   They'll be primarily enforcing the blockade with their six surviving surface frigates and assorted corvettes and support ships.

The fleet can't be reinforced since Turkey closed the Dardanelles and Bosporus at the start of the war. 

[Uberhaus]

How many Russian subs operate in the Black Sea?

Four Kilos according to https://www.navalnews.com/naval-news/2022/02/russias-improved-kilo-class-submarine-entering-black-sea/ as of right before the start of hostilities.  Five according to Wikipedia https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_Sea_Fleet (B-271 joining in July '22). 
They shifted them from Sevastopol in September to the mainland https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/9/20/russias-black-sea-fleet-relocating-some-of-its-submarines-uk

They've been launching Kalibr missiles at Ukraine.

[JasonPratt]

Welcome to the Diesel Sub class comrade! As expect, we shall be shooting artillery at Ukrainian civ-- er, Nazis!

[JasonPratt]

Also, to be fair, if someone asked Putin, "What the hell do you have to be on, to think riding barebacked on the Nuclear Cocaine Bear is a good idea??!", "Steroids" would be a valid and believable answer from him.

[JasonPratt]

Reporter: "So, esteemed leader, what specifically would you like our people to know, when they see you bear-riding bareback?"

Putin: "I can take a bear."

Reporter: ".....in a fight. Right?"

Putin: {smiles slightly}

Reporter: "IN A FIGHT, RIGHT?!?"

(I suddenly realized this topic from another thread had comic relevancy here, so...)

[Uberhaus]

CBC managed to produce something relevant. https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/russia-ukraine-grain-deal-implications-1.6911388

"Some underwriters will look to take advantage with a hefty increase in rates. Others will stop offering cover. The [key] question is whether Russia mines the area which would effectively cease any form of cover being offered," one insurance industry source told Reuters.

Much cheaper and efficient to mine the waters, and as Russia's navy has taken losses, it would require less exposure of naval assets to attack while patrolling/intercepting.

[GDS_Starfury]

so we get to field test our underwater mine clearing drones.

[GDS_Starfury]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/07/20/bradley-ukraine-war-vehicles/

[Crossroads]

An interesting interview of "Arty Green" again. Runs for a good fifty minutes but does not waste time, kicking off with the question as how he feels about the western commentaries of a slow progress with their counterattack?

He refers to Kherson where they went to a contact, stayed in contact for two months with a strong pressure on RuAF and once they finally broke and retreated, they were not really able to chase them due to extensive minefields, arriving to Dnipro two days after the RuAF had evacuated from western bank. Says it might be so here as well, and while advance rate in kms may well be slow, casualties caused to RuAF are very much according to plan.

Commenting on gaining ground, he mentions a typical field between two trellises is 900 meters, therefore an advance of "1km" here or there means they have been able to move forward one position. In urban surrounds, like Bakhmut, gaining a position would be from a city block to the next one. 

On topic of F-16s and lack of air superiority, and how UAF is expected to successfully counterattack without it and how Western powers themselves never would even attempt attacking without having secured the skies first, he states that at least in some components (does not specify which) UAF has a superiority, he then says RuAF CAS is not that spectacular, lobbying rockets from distance, but does say the helicopters with ATGMs are something they still can't counter properly. UAF is able to protect the air space of their more static frontlines, but protecting and advance is much more difficult.

For the slow drip of arms to Ukraine he feels this is the Western strategy, to boil the Russian frog in a kettle by slowly upping the temperature, so that it does not truly wake up. He feels the West hopes to achieve RuAF leaving Ukraine by a regime change in Russia rather than by success of Ukrainian arms.

Very interesting view as what's Prigozhin's long plan, too, but I have to leave something for you lot to listen to, too. In fact his views on Russian inner power games from 15 to 28 minute marks are quite intriguing. Lots of bulldogs preparing to making their moves under the carpet. 

He does not downplay the opponent and makes an observation that their military complex is finally gearing up in some weapons systems at least, for instance he's not previously seen the amount of Lancet loitering munitions that are there at the moment. He also observes UAF is losing their advantage on drones in general.

I really don't know who this guy is but the few long interviews released by him have always been an interesting listen. To be taken with some salt, of course.

Summer 2023 UAF counteroffensive July update from top UAF military planner callsign Arty Green. English translation is available by pushing "cc" button, it is mistakenly indicated as "Russian" translation, but it is English.
Original publication July 2nd

Timestamps:
00:00 Introduction
00:33 General Zaluzhniy interview to the Washington Post
01:18 Summer campaign assessment
01:24 attrition not kilometers on a map
01:46 Kherson operation parallel scaled up 3 times
03:00 General Teplinskiy
04:50 Million men army needed to hold Azov Sea shore
06:23 Zaluzhniy interview directed at the West
08:32 Moving forward without air support
09:58 Trends leading to the end of the war
10:35 Analysis of the Wagner mutiny
12:35 Boil the frog strategy against Putin
14:15 Different goals of Ukraine and allies
15:19 Real reason for Prigozhin mutiny
16:45 Future Prigozhin ambitions
19:50 Lukashenko - Prigozhin cooperation
26:25 General Teplinskiy role in the current fighting
27:56 Cluster munitions
29:42 Influence Western public opinions on F16
30:14 Russian military industry activity and emerging threats
32:19 Mortar availability improvement
33:32 Vilnius NATO summit battlefield results
34:12 Recent battlefield dynamics
35:31 Modelling the battlefield and danger of too early breakthrough
36:40 Specificity of attrition warfare
37:35 Importance of contact
38:05 Three criterias of success
38:25 Enemy defensive belts
39:52 Kakhovka dam explosion impact
44:18 Main push of summer offensive
46:32 War could end very suddenly
47:55 War ending in 2023
48:52 CIA's William Burns visit to Kyiev
49:53 The opportunities of regime change in Russia
51:04 Nuclear weapons deployed to Belarus
52:30 Recap message to the audience

[JasonPratt]

Gonna have to remember to check this out this afternoon/evening!

[GDS_Starfury]

love her 

https://twitter.com/i/status/1682153227201167362

[Uberhaus]

Amazing, thanks Crossroads!
The parts of the interview I watched with Arty Green were very interesting, especially his suggestion of a Prigozhin-Lukashenko conspiracy, supported by him stating how flawlessly Lukashenko came in and quickly brought consensus.  I'll have to watch the rest of it later, it fills in a lot of blanks.

Arty Green seems to show up in a lot of interviews, and doesn't seem to have been disciplined for talking.  He definitely likes sailing, and he might be a C-level executive in shipping.  If the latter is the case, he will have important connections in Ukraine and maybe even Russia.  He's not hiding his face anymore like last year.

[Uberhaus]

love her 

Isn't Witch the lawyer who came up with the scheme of using unobserved indirect fire with a truck mounted Mk-19 last year?